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Model picks & player props
Western Bulldogs
VS
Adelaide Crows

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Fri 20 Mar 2026, 8:40AM
6
Game Picks
22
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Western Bulldogs -0.5 (Spread)
For Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows (AFL), model win probability 66.2%, fair odds 1.51, book price -112, model edge +13.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 20 Mar 2026, 8:40AM at Adelaide Oval.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Western Bulldogs
-0.5
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Western BulldogsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Western BulldogsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Bulldogs

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Matthew Kennedy Western Bulldogs Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jake Soligo Adelaide Crows Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bailey Dale Western Bulldogs Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Taylor Walker Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Rory Laird Adelaide Crows Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Sam Berry. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs stats and odds.</p>

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) Over 14.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the over on disposals, Sam Berry is our man for the Adelaide Crows. In his last five home games, Berry has been a workhorse, averaging 14.2 disposals per game. Against the upcoming opponent, the Western Bulldogs, he's even better, averaging 14 disposals in their recent matchups. With an overall disposals average of 16.2 in his last five games, Berry has shown consistent form. Additionally, his contested possessions have been solid at 9 per game, implying he's not just padding stats with easy touches. Playing at the Adelaide Oval, where he's comfortable, Berry is poised to surpass the 14.5 disposals line comfortably. Bet on Berry to rack up the possessions and drive your wager home.

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) Over 13.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Berry, the rising star for Adelaide, is poised to shine bright in front of the home crowd at Adelaide Oval against the Western Bulldogs. With a recent average of 14.2 disposals per game at home, including a solid contested possessions average of 7.6, Berry has been a pivotal force on the field. Against the Bulldogs, he has historically elevated his game, averaging 14 disposals in their recent matchups. His efficient ball use, reflected in a 61.1% disposal efficiency at home, ensures he maximizes every possession. With a model predicting him to hit 17.5 disposals, showcasing an 8.7% edge, backing Berry to surpass 13.5 disposals is a smart play. Ride the momentum with Berry as he looks to continue his stellar form and deliver for Adelaide.

Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide Crows) Over 1.5 Goals (-182)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Riley Thilthorpe for the Adelaide Crows facing off against the Western Bulldogs at the Adelaide Oval. Thilthorpe has been a scoring machine lately, bagging an impressive average of 2.6 goals in his last five home games. With a sharp eye for goal, boasting an 81.0% accuracy, he's been a force to reckon with inside 50, averaging 1.6 marks in that zone. His recent form against the Bulldogs has also been solid, notching an average of 2 goals per game. Thilthorpe's attacking prowess is further highlighted by his current hit streak of 4 goals in 4 games overall. With the model predicting him to snag 2 goals in this matchup and the line set at 1.5, the Over on Thilthorpe's goal tally looks like a savvy bet with a strong statistical backing. Get on board with Thilthorpe to snag more than 1.5 goals in this showdown.

Callum Ah Chee (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When you're looking to back a player prop for the upcoming Adelaide Crows clash against the Western Bulldogs, Callum Ah Chee stands out as a prime candidate to surpass the 11.5 disposals mark. Ah Chee has been a reliable ball-winner at home, averaging a solid 15.6 disposals over his last five games at Adelaide Oval. His recent form against the Bulldogs has been impressive too, with a 19.5 disposals average in their last five matchups. With an overall hit streak of 8 games and a current hit streak of 7 at home, Ah Chee's consistency and ability to find the footy make him a strong bet to continue his solid form and cover the Over in the disposals market.

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) Over 12.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Berry has been a standout performer for the Adelaide Crows, consistently racking up disposals in his recent home games. Averaging 14.2 disposals per game at Adelaide Oval, Berry's ability to find the footy and drive his team forward is evident. With a model prediction of 17.5 disposals and an impressive 76.9% implied probability to surpass 12.5 disposals, Berry's form against the Western Bulldogs bodes well. In his last five matchups against the Bulldogs, he has averaged 14 disposals, showcasing his aptitude in this matchup. Additionally, his overall disposals average of 16.2 and a solid hit rate of 13/16 further solidify his potential to exceed the set line. Back Berry to continue his strong form and snag more than 12.5 disposals in this upcoming clash.

Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs : Western Bulldogs Win (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The Adelaide Crows hosting the Western Bulldogs at the Adelaide Oval promises to be an enthralling clash. Recent form suggests the Bulldogs have the edge here. Over their last five away games, the Bulldogs have been dominant, boasting an impressive average margin of 27.2 points and a high-scoring average of 111 points for. Their ability to control the game is evident through their average of 42.4 total clearances and 55.4 inside 50s. In contrast, the Crows have struggled at home, with a negative average margin and lower scoring potential. With the Bulldogs' strong clearance and inside 50 numbers, they are poised to snag a win at the Adelaide Oval.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 6 game picks and 22 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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