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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Berry is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 71%, the price says 80%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 19, 11:59PM UTC
AFL

Sam Berry

Adelaide Crows

Value call

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 16.5 that pays $125 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
Value call
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 11°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
22.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 70.5% · before adjusting for past results 87.6% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap -9.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.6%70.5%80.0%1.42+7.6%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Sam Berry Over 16.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Sam Berry to get over 16.5 disposals look solid. Brisbane Lions have been on fire lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games, which shows they're in great form. Berry has a strong chance to rack up those disposals, especially since both teams have been scoring a lot before half-time, averaging around 50 points. However, the Adelaide Crows have also been playing well, winning 7 of their last 10 games, making this matchup closer than it seems. While our numbers see Berry as a strong favorite for this bet, it's important to remember that the Crows can put up a fight, and that could impact his opportunities.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Sam Berry averaged 13.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 1.4 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
1.4
Marks
5.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Sam Berry recorded 22 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans22104
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide21005
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs14018
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats18036
28 Jul 24Hawthorn12017
19 Jul 24Essendon18114
13 Jul 24St Kilda150012
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions19054
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS21027
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans5010
Quick answers:How many disposals does Sam Berry average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 16.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 15.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 19.5 Over -147 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Fantasy — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Fantasy — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Berry is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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