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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Berry is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +6.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:37PM UTC
AFL

Sam Berry

Adelaide Crows

+6.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -179 (1.56) · $100→$156
+6.9% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 11°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
71.0%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+6.9%
Predicted Value
22.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.0%64.1%1.41+6.9%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) Over 19.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player's disposal line, Sam Berry of the Adelaide Crows stands out like a shining beacon under the Adelaide Oval lights. With an average of 24.4 disposals in his last five home games, Berry has been a midfield maestro, consistently racking up possessions with panache. His recent form includes an impressive contested possessions average of 12.2, showcasing his ability to win the hard ball. Against Collingwood specifically, Berry has been even more prolific, averaging 15.7 disposals in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 9 in home games, Berry is in the form of his life. Coupled with a solid disposalefficiency of 61.5% and a knack for gaining crucial metres, Berry is primed to eclipse the 19.5 disposal mark. Bet confidently on Berry to feast on the Magpies and snag those crucial touches.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
16.5avg disposals recent
Season best22
Disposals last 10avg 16.5 · hi 22 · lo 5
5211915181218142122

Sam Berry has a disposals high of 22 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 19.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 18.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 17.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Berry is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.9% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 23 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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