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AFL

Sam Berry

Adelaide Crows

Value call

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) has one live pick today: over 19.5 disposals that pays $189 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
57 in 100
Predicted
22.7 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 57.1% · before adjusting for past results 72.5% · the book's price implies 52.9% · gap +4.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 7:35 PM AEST
Sam Berry
over 19.5 disposals
Disposals Over 19.5 -112 (1.89) · $100→$189
Value call
LEANWins about 57 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.90 Odds-112
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Berry is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 57 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 57%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 7:01PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 11°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.5%57.1%52.9%1.99+19.6%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Sam Berry Over 19.5 Disposals (-112)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Sam Berry to get over 19.5 disposals look promising. Our numbers show he has a solid chance to hit that mark, especially considering both teams are in good form. The Brisbane Lions have been dominating lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games and often leading by over 30 points. This could mean plenty of ball movement, giving Berry more opportunities to rack up disposals. The Adelaide Crows have also been strong, winning 7 of their last 10, so they won't make it easy for him. However, there's a risk here since both teams are closely matched, and if the game turns out to be tightly contested, it might limit Berry's chances. Still, with the way both teams have been playing, this bet feels like a good spot to take a chance.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Sam Berry averaged 13.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 1.4 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
1.4
Marks
5.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Sam Berry recorded 22 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans22104
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide21005
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs14018
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats18036
28 Jul 24Hawthorn12017
19 Jul 24Essendon18114
13 Jul 24St Kilda150012
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions19054
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS21027
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans5010
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 19.5 Over -112 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 18.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Fantasy 79.5 Over -164 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Fantasy — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Berry is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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