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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Berry is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 64%, edge +6.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 10:20PM UTC
AFL

Sam Berry

Adelaide Crows

+6.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -179 (1.56) · $100→$156
+6.9% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 11°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
22.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.0% · the book's price implies 64.1% · gap +6.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.0%64.1%1.41+6.9%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) Over 19.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player's disposal line, Sam Berry of the Adelaide Crows stands out like a shining beacon under the Adelaide Oval lights. With an average of 24.4 disposals in his last five home games, Berry has been a midfield maestro, consistently racking up possessions with panache. His recent form includes an impressive contested possessions average of 12.2, showcasing his ability to win the hard ball. Against Collingwood specifically, Berry has been even more prolific, averaging 15.7 disposals in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 9 in home games, Berry is in the form of his life. Coupled with a solid disposalefficiency of 61.5% and a knack for gaining crucial metres, Berry is primed to eclipse the 19.5 disposal mark. Bet confidently on Berry to feast on the Magpies and snag those crucial touches.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Sam Berry averaged 13.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 1.4 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
1.4
Marks
5.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Sam Berry recorded 22 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans22104
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide21005
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs14018
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats18036
28 Jul 24Hawthorn12017
19 Jul 24Essendon18114
13 Jul 24St Kilda150012
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions19054
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS21027
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans5010
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 19.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 18.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 17.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Berry is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.9% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 23 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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