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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Berry is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +2.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Sam Berry

Adelaide Crows

+2.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -217 (1.46)
+2.5% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
71.0%
Implied Probability
68.5%
Model Edge
+2.5%
Predicted Value
22.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.0%—68.5%1.41+2.5%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) Over 19.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, Sam Berry of the Adelaide Crows stands out as a prime candidate for this Friday night clash against the Sydney Swans at the SCG. Over his last 5 away games, Berry has been a consistent ball magnet, averaging a hefty 22.8 disposals per game. His recent form includes an impressive contested possessions average of 10 and a disposal efficiency of 77.1%, showcasing both his ability to win the hard ball and use it effectively. Moreover, Berry has been hitting his disposal line in away games, exceeding 19.5 disposals in 4 out of his last 5 matches. With a model prediction of 22.2 disposals and an overall hit rate of 9 out of his last 10 games, backing Berry to surpass 19.5 disposals seems like a solid bet with a high probability of success.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
16.5avg disposals recent
Season best22
Disposals last 10avg 16.5 · hi 22 · lo 5
5211915181218142122

Sam Berry has a disposals high of 22 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 17.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam Berry (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Berry is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.5% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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