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The latest Bet Better model pick for Rory Laird is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 59%, the price says 70%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 1:01PM UTC
AFL

Rory Laird

Adelaide Crows

Value call

Rory Laird (Adelaide Crows) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 18.5 that pays $142 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
Value call
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
59 in 100
Predicted
22.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 58.6% · before adjusting for past results 72.2% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap -11.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.2%58.6%70.4%1.71+1.7%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Rory Laird Over 18.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brisbane Lions will be up against the Adelaide Crows, and Rory Laird has been a big player for his team. He usually gets a lot of disposals, and our numbers suggest he has a good chance to hit over 18.5 in this game. Laird's recent performance shows he is reliable, even if the teams are quite even in skill. One risk is that both teams can be tough defensively, which might make it harder for Laird to rack up those disposals. Still, considering how often he gets the ball, I think he can still come through for us today.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Rory Laird averaged 27.6 disposals, 0.1 goals and 3.6 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

27.6
Disposals
0.1
Goals
3.6
Marks
5.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Rory Laird recorded 28 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans28062
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide24023
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs28054
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats29065
28 Jul 24Hawthorn29038
19 Jul 24Essendon29027
13 Jul 24St Kilda310213
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions27055
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS23045
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans34066
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 18.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 17.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks 4.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Kicks — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Fantasy — — — Pending

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About This Player

Rory Laird (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Rory Laird is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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