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The latest Bet Better model pick for Murphy Reid is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 74%, the price says 75%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 11:43AM UTC
AFL

Murphy Reid

Fremantle

Value call

Murphy Reid (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Marks Over 1.5 that pays $133 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 1.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
Value call
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
3.6 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 73.6% · before adjusting for past results 85.6% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap -1.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks85.6%73.6%75.2%1.36+10.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Murphy Reid Over 1.5 Marks (-303)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Murphy Reid needs to take over 1.5 marks for this bet to win tonight. He's been showing some serious form lately, which makes this a strong pick. The numbers suggest he's been involved in a lot of one-on-one contests, and his chances of getting marks are pretty good since he's usually a key player in Sydney's game plan. However, there's always a chance that the Fremantle Dockers might put up tough resistance against him, which could limit his opportunities. Still, with the way Reid has been playing and the Swans' overall strategy, it feels likely he'll get those marks tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Murphy Reid has cleared 16.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o16.590%
o17.590%
o18.580%
o20.560%
o21.560%
o23.540%
o24.530%
o25.530%
o27.520%
o28.50%
o30.50%
o31.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Murphy Reid is averaging 21.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

21.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall
Quick answers:How many disposals does Murphy Reid average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks 1.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks 9.5 Over -204 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 1.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Murphy Reid (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Murphy Reid is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.4% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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