Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Murphy Reid is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +5.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 2:23PM UTC
AFL

Murphy Reid

Fremantle

+5.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+5.5% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
91.0%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+5.5%
Predicted Value
24.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals91.0%—85.5%1.10+5.5%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Murphy Reid (Fremantle) Over 17.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to pinpointing a player prop bet with a high probability of hitting, Murphy Reid is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between the Fremantle Dockers and the Melbourne Demons. Reid's recent form on the road has been nothing short of stellar, averaging a commanding 21.6 disposals per game, comfortably exceeding the 17.5 line set for this matchup. His ability to find space and generate forward momentum with an average of 302 meters gained per game indicates he's a key playmaker for the Dockers. With a solid disposal efficiency of 63.9% and a track record of consistent performance, Reid is poised to dominate the possession count once again. Backing him to eclipse 17.5 disposals is a smart bet considering his recent track record and the importance of his role within the team.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Murphy Reid - AFL Disposals market.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Murphy Reid - AFL Goals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 17.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 18.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 19.5 Over -270 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Murphy Reid (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Murphy Reid is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.5% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.