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AFL

Murphy Reid

Fremantle

Value call

Murphy Reid (Fremantle) has one live pick today: over 1.5 marks that pays $134 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
69 in 100
Predicted
3.1 marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 68.6% · before adjusting for past results 81.7% · the book's price implies 74.6% · gap -6.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Murphy Reid
over 1.5 marks
Marks Over 1.5 -294 (1.34) · $100→$134
Value call
HIGHWins about 69 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.40 Odds-294
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Murphy Reid is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 69 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 69%, the price says 75%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 10:16PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks81.7%68.6%74.6%1.46+7.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Murphy Reid Over 1.5 Marks (-294)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Murphy Reid to get over 1.5 marks tonight, he needs to find the ball and make some catches. Our numbers show he's a strong favorite to do this against the Brisbane Lions, especially since he's been involved in plenty of plays. The Dockers have been known to create opportunities, and Reid has a good chance to step up. The biggest risk is that the Lions are tough competition, and Reid may not get as many chances as he needs. However, with his recent form and the way the game is set up, it feels likely he can reach that mark. Let's see if he can deliver!

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Pick History & Track Record

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Murphy Reid has cleared 16.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o16.590%
o17.590%
o19.570%
o20.560%
o22.550%
o23.540%
o25.530%
o26.520%
o28.50%
o29.50%
o31.50%
o32.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Murphy Reid is averaging 21.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

21.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall
Quick answers:How many disposals does Murphy Reid average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 1.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks 1.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks 9.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Murphy Reid (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Murphy Reid is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.0% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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