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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Nankervis is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 80 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 80%, implied 78%, edge +1.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 1:26AM UTC
AFL

Luke Nankervis

Adelaide Crows

+1.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+1.6% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 14 Mar, 8:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 27°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
80 in 100
Predicted
13.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 79.7% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +1.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals79.7%—78.1%1.25+1.6%

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AI Analysis

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Luke Nankervis (Adelaide Crows) Over 9.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding value in the 'Player Disposals Over/Under' market, Luke Nankervis stands out as a prime target for the upcoming clash between the Adelaide Crows and Collingwood Magpies at the MCG. Nankervis has been a consistent force, averaging 12.6 disposals in his last five away games, with a solid 67.9% disposal efficiency to boot. Facing Collingwood, he has historically ramped up his performance, averaging 15 disposals in their recent encounters. With his current form showing a hit rate of 3/3 in away games and a streak of 2 overall, Nankervis is poised to surpass the 9.5 disposals line. This bet isn't just about numbers; it's about Nankervis' ability to impact games and create opportunities for the Crows. Expect him to thrive in this matchup and snag more than his fair share of possessions.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Luke Nankervis averaged 17.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

17.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.0
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Luke Nankervis recorded 19 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans19151
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide16014
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs13031
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats14052
28 Jul 24Hawthorn22054
19 Jul 24Essendon12023
13 Jul 24St Kilda20004
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions19022
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS15061
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans17090
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Luke Nankervis (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Nankervis is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies on Saturday 14 March at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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