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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Nankervis is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 59%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 8:54AM UTC
AFL

Luke Nankervis

Adelaide Crows

Value call

Luke Nankervis (Adelaide Crows) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 14.5 that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 27°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
59 in 100
Predicted
17.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.1% · before adjusting for past results 72.7% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +5.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.7%59.1%53.2%2.02+19.5%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Luke Nankervis Over 14.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brisbane Lions have been on fire, winning 9 out of their last 10 games and dominating their opponents by over 31 points on average. Luke Nankervis has a good shot at getting over 14.5 disposals, especially since both teams tend to have high scoring first halves. The Lions have averaged nearly 50 points before halftime in their recent matches, creating plenty of opportunities for Nankervis to rack up his stats. On the flip side, the Adelaide Crows have also been strong, winning 7 of their last 10 games and staying competitive. The risk here is that both teams are performing well, so it might be close. Still, with the Lions' recent form and Nankervis' chances, this bet looks solid.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Luke Nankervis averaged 17.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

17.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.0
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Luke Nankervis recorded 19 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans19151
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide16014
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs13031
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats14052
28 Jul 24Hawthorn22054
19 Jul 24Essendon12023
13 Jul 24St Kilda20004
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions19022
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS15061
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans17090
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 14.5 Over -114 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 12.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks 2.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Luke Nankervis (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Nankervis is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.5% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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