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AFL

Luke Nankervis

Adelaide Crows

Value call

Luke Nankervis (Adelaide Crows) has one live pick today: over 14.5 disposals that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
17.5 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.8% · before adjusting for past results 72.7% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +6.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 7:35 PM AEST
Luke Nankervis
over 14.5 disposals
Disposals Over 14.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
HIGHWins about 60 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Nankervis is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 7:03PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 27°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.7%59.8%53.2%2.02+19.5%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Luke Nankervis Over 14.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brisbane Lions have been on fire lately, winning 9 of their last 10 matches and often dominating their opponents by over 30 points. Luke Nankervis is in a great spot to get plenty of disposals, especially since both teams have been scoring heavily before half-time. With the Lions averaging almost 50 points before the break, it should create a lot of opportunities for him to get involved. The Adelaide Crows are also strong, winning 7 of their last 10 games, which means this could be a close match. The risk here is that Nankervis might not get as many chances if the game stays tight. Still, with the numbers looking good, betting on him to get over 14.5 disposals seems like a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Luke Nankervis averaged 17.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

17.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.0
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Luke Nankervis recorded 19 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans19151
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide16014
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs13031
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats14052
28 Jul 24Hawthorn22054
19 Jul 24Essendon12023
13 Jul 24St Kilda20004
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions19022
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS15061
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans17090
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 14.5 Over -114 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 13.5 Over -169 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 12.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Luke Nankervis (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Nankervis is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.5% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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