Alex Neal-Bullen (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (+125)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Neal-Bullen's head-to-head record against GWS is the standout figure here. His L5 vs GWS goals average sits at 0.8 — double his general home average of 0.4 — and that opponent-specific pattern gives the model's projection of 0.8 goals genuine credibility. The book has this priced at 2.25 (implied 44.4%), but the model puts the true probability meaningfully higher, generating an 18.8% edge that's worth acting on.
The supporting numbers hold up. At home over his last five, Neal-Bullen is averaging 1.6 shots at goal and 3 inside-50s per game, with a 30% goal accuracy across his overall L5. He's also hit this line in 4 of his last 7 outings overall. The current streak sits at zero, so there's a bounce-back element in play too. Playing at Adelaide Oval against a side he's historically productive against, the edge here is real.