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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Atkins is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 51 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 51%, implied 62%, edge +8.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 9:54PM UTC
AFL

Tom Atkins

Geelong Cats

+8.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -161 (1.62) · $100→$162
+8.9% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 22 Aug, 9:45AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
20.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.6% · the book's price implies 61.7% · gap +8.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.6%50.8%61.7%1.97+8.9%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals (-161)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Tom Atkins is the man to watch in the upcoming Geelong Cats versus Richmond Tigers clash at GMHBA Stadium. Recent form shows Atkins hitting his stride, with a home game average of 16.6 disposals in the last five matches. Facing off against Richmond in his last five games, he's averaged an impressive 20.2 disposals. Atkins is a reliable contributor in contested possessions and boasts a commendable disposal efficiency of 73.6%. With a knack for generating meters gained and limited turnovers, Atkins is primed to surpass the 17.5 disposal line set by the bookies. If you're looking for a solid bet with a player who's been consistently delivering, putting your money on Atkins to snag over 17.5 disposals is a smart move for this showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Atkins averaged 17.1 disposals, 0.0 goals and 1.5 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

17.1
Disposals
0.0
Goals
1.5
Marks
6.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Atkins recorded 12 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions12016
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide18024
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles22029
17 Aug 24St Kilda17011
10 Aug 24Fremantle18027
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows19057
12 Jul 24Collingwood17024
6 Jul 24Hawthorn11024
29 Jun 24Essendon19024
21 Jun 24Carlton16005
Quick answers:How many disposals does Tom Atkins average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals 15.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Atkins is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.9% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 22 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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