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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Atkins is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 67%, the price says 66%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 11:45AM UTC
AFL

Tom Atkins

Geelong Cats

Value call

Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 15.5 that pays $152 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -192 (1.52) · $100→$152
Value call
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
67 in 100
Predicted
20.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 66.7% · before adjusting for past results 82.5% · the book's price implies 65.8% · gap +0.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.5%66.7%65.8%1.50+16.7%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Tom Atkins Over 15.5 Disposals (-192)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a roll lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and coming out strong in the first half. This makes it tough for Geelong Cats, even though they've also been playing well. Tom Atkins has been a key player, and we're betting he'll make over 15.5 disposals in this match. Atkins has been getting plenty of touches lately, and we think he can keep that up against Fremantle. The only real concern is how closely matched these teams can be at times. Still, with Fremantle's strong recent form, it seems like a good spot for him to shine.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Atkins averaged 17.1 disposals, 0.0 goals and 1.5 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

17.1
Disposals
0.0
Goals
1.5
Marks
6.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Atkins recorded 12 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions12016
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide18024
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles22029
17 Aug 24St Kilda17011
10 Aug 24Fremantle18027
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows19057
12 Jul 24Collingwood17024
6 Jul 24Hawthorn11024
29 Jun 24Essendon19024
21 Jun 24Carlton16005
Quick answers:How many disposals does Tom Atkins average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -192 ✗ MISS
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 13.5 Over -500 ✗ MISS
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 14.5 Over -303 ✗ MISS
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Atkins is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.7% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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