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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Atkins is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +1.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
AFL

Tom Atkins

Geelong Cats

+1.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -227 (1.44)
+1.2% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
70.6%
Implied Probability
69.4%
Model Edge
+1.2%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.6%—69.4%1.42+1.2%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) Over 15.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop, Tom Atkins is the man to watch for the Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium. With his recent form, Atkins has been a midfield maestro, averaging 15.6 disposals in his last five home games. Against St Kilda, he's even more prolific, boasting a 5-game average of 19.7 disposals. What's impressive is his consistency, hitting a home game hit rate of 17/20 and maintaining a current streak of 6 successful outings overall. With his knack for finding the footy, Atkins doesn't just contribute with quantity but quality too, showcasing a solid 68.8% disposal efficiency. So, when the Cats clash with the Saints, expect Atkins to continue his midfield mastery and comfortably surpass the 15.5 disposals line, making him a prime target for the Over in the Player Disposals market.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
16.9avg disposals recent
Season best27
Disposals last 10avg 16.9 · hi 22 · lo 11
16191117191817221812

Tom Atkins has a disposals high of 27 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals 15.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals 14.5 Over -333 ✗ MISS
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals 15.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Atkins is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 16 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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