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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 8, 12:07AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Tue 8 Sep 2026, 10:40PM
6
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Houston Astros 1.5 Spread -167

The model graded 6 markets for Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $160 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 8 Sep 2026, 10:40PM at Citizens Bank Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win73.6%
The price says62.5%
Best price-167
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Houston Astros 1.5 High74% chance -167
Moneyline Lean43% chance —
Total Runs Lean44% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →
Philadelphia Phillies are the model's favourite to beat Houston Astros, with a 52% chance to win. Predicted score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.5 – Houston Astros 5. Kick-off Tue 8 Sep, 10:40PM at Citizens Bank Park. Best bet: Houston Astros 1.5 at -167.
How they've been scoring this season
Houston AstrosPhiladelphia Phillies
Won-lost73-7180-63
Runs scored per game4.54.5
Runs allowed per game4.84.2
On the road / at home36-33 away39-32 at home
Last 5 gamesWWWLLWLLWL
Their games average 9.0 total runs this season.
From the 144 Houston Astros and 143 Philadelphia Phillies games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 28 bookmakers compared
Winner
Houston Astros2.30+130William Hill
Phillies1.75-133Kalshi
Total runs
Over8.51.92-108Kalshi
Under8.52.04+104Kalshi

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies odds by bookmaker

28 books · best price in green
BookHouston Astros winPhillies winPhillies -1.5Over 8.5Under 8.5
Bally Bet2.18+1181.70-1432.43+143——
BetMGM2.25+1251.67-1492.35+1351.85-1181.98-102
betPARX2.18+1181.70-1432.43+143——
BetRivers2.20+1201.70-1432.43+143——
Bovada2.19+1191.70-1432.35+135——
DraftKings2.24+1241.67-1492.41+1411.85-1181.97-103
ESPN BET2.25+1251.69-1452.45+1451.87-1151.95-105
Fanatics2.25+1251.67-1492.45+1451.87-1151.95-105
FanDuel2.20+1201.70-1432.36+136——
Fliff2.20+1201.69-1452.30+1301.83-1201.95-105
Hard Rock Bet2.20+1201.69-1452.35+1351.83-1202.00+100
Kalshi2.27+1271.75-1332.50+1501.92-1082.04+104
PlayUp2.20+1201.68-1472.35+1351.80-1252.00+100
PointsBet2.30+1301.67-1492.40+1401.87-1151.95-105

Since the market opened: Phillies to win opened 1.69, best now 1.75; the over 8.5 opened 1.89, best now 1.94 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 50 of 150 right (mlb batter rbis overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 6
Brooks Lee Over 0.5
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Houston Astros
+1.5
-167
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward Philadelphia Phillies on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward Philadelphia Phillies
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on Houston Astros
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Steven Okert RPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Jesus Luzardo SP
Availability updated Sep 7, 5:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 8 Sep

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Prediction and Picks, September 8, 2026

On September 8, 2026 our model has run Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros: Under 9 Total Runs (-118), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 1 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros: Under 9 Total Runs (-118)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Philadelphia Phillies play Houston Astros in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros: Under 9 Total Runs (-118). That is a totals bet. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.47 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Betting angles

3 markets live
Run LineHouston Astros run line+1.5 -167
74%cover %
-1.5proj. margin
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.2Away L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1Free board19-15

Houston Astros spread vs Philadelphia Phillies is live and our model makes it 74% (HIGH); proj. margin -1.5.

MoneylineHouston Astros to win+129
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.2Away L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1Free board18-14

Houston Astros moneyline vs Philadelphia Phillies is live and our model makes it 48% (LONG-SHOT); L5 record 4-1.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston AstrosUnder 9 -118
8.5proj. runs
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs Houston Astros L51-4

Philadelphia Phillies total runs vs Houston Astros is live and our model makes it 44% (LONG-SHOT); proj. runs 8.5.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
1.5runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs Houston Astros L51-4

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 1.8 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 6 betting markets for Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies — 6 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 6 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 5 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 3 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–5ATLHome
W4–2ATLHome
L2–5ATLHome
W7–1ARIAway
L0–1ARIAway
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–3ARIHome
W3–1ARIHome
L3–4ARIHome
W2–0CHWHome
W6–2CHWHome

Who’s out or in doubt

11 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Steven Okert RPOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies — where the money went

Since betting opened on Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies, the market has moved toward Philadelphia Phillies across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Spread — Philadelphia Phillies -1▲ Money came for this
Spread — Houston Astros 1▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 8.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 8.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Our Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies prediction for September 8, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 8, 2026 our model has run Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros: Under 9 Total Runs (-118), which we rate LEAN confidence. We walk through all 1 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Astros. The next scheduled game is Tuesday 8 September 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 6 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 11 meetings on record
Houston Astros 6–5 across the last 11 meetings · these games average 5.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jun 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros2–1Houston Astros
25 Jun 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros2–0Houston Astros
24 Jun 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros1–0Houston Astros
28 Aug 2024Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies0–10Houston Astros
27 Aug 2024Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies5–0Philadelphia Phillies
26 Aug 2024Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies3–2Philadelphia Phillies
15 Mar 2024Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros5–3Houston Astros
8 Mar 2024Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies6–3Philadelphia Phillies
30 Apr 2023Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros4–3Houston Astros
29 Apr 2023Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros1–6Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 11 meetings on file.

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