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AFL

Brisbane Lions

Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.

Every pick graded — see verified results
Next Game: vs West Coast Eagles (Away) Sat 18 Jul, 10:10AM Optus Stadium, Perth · Outdoor
Model updated Jul 16, 8:02AM UTC
Answer
The Brisbane Lions model is leaning the over in the Total Points Q4 market vs West Coast Eagles.
3 tracked player props · exact probability, edge and line unlock with a subscription.

Today's Game Pick

Model edge
Total Points Q4
Over 41.5
Odds: -109
Model prob: 52.7%
+0.6%
Free pick — today's headline game edge

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Today's Player Props

Edge in green
PlayerStatModel output
Lachie Neale Disposals Line, odds & edge locked
Logan Morris Goals Line, odds & edge locked
Conor McKenna Goals Line, odds & edge locked

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Calibrated Edge — Game Markets

Calibrated vs fair
MarketModel output
Team Total Points Q1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q4Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q2Probability, fair odds & edge locked

Full model-edge table — 3 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Player availability is not tracked for AFL. No injury/availability feed is available for this competition — absence of a listing here does not mean every player is fit.

Model Performance History

All results →
2
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate
DateOpponentMarketPickResult
02 Jul 26 Geelong Cats Head to Head Brisbane Lions ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Geelong Cats Spread Brisbane Lions 14.5 ✓ HIT

Betting angles

3 markets live
Team total Q1vs West Coast Eagles26.5 -116+19.1% edge
73%under %
19.6proj. team pts (quarter)
Model pickBrisbane Lions Under 26.5PF/G121.4PA/G77.4L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles on Jul 18 - Team total Q1: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions Under 26.5 at -116, a 73% under % (+19.1% edge). Brisbane Lions are averaging 121.4 points for and 77.4 against over their last five games.

Total Q2vs West Coast Eagles41.5 -110+0.3% edge
53%over %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickOver 41.5PF/G121.4PA/G77.4L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles on Jul 18 - Total Q2: the model's pick is Over 41.5 at -110, a 53% over % (+0.3% edge). Brisbane Lions are averaging 121.4 points for and 77.4 against over their last five games.

Total Q4vs West Coast Eagles41.5 -109+0.6% edge
53%over %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickOver 41.5PF/G121.4PA/G77.4L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles on Jul 18 - Total Q4: the model's pick is Over 41.5 at -109, a 53% over % (+0.6% edge). Brisbane Lions are averaging 121.4 points for and 77.4 against over their last five games.

For & against (last 5 games)

Brisbane Lions are averaging 121.4 points for and 77.4 points against over their last 5 games, holding a 0-5 record.

0-5
Last 5
121.4
Points For / G
77.4
Points Against / G
+44.0
Margin / G
18.4
Goals / G
11.0
Behinds / G
61.2
Inside 50s / G

About This Team

Brisbane Lions are tracked by the Bet Better model across AFL games. Their next game is against West Coast Eagles on Saturday 18 July at Optus Stadium. The model currently tracks 3 player props for Brisbane Lions in this game. Use the data above to inform your AFL betting decisions for Brisbane Lions.