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AFL

Brisbane Lions

Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.

Next Game: vs Hawthorn Hawks (Home) Fri 7 Aug, 9:40AM Gabba, Brisbane · Outdoor
Model updated Aug 5, 10:14AM UTC
Answer
The Brisbane Lions model is leaning Brisbane Lions in the Head to Head market vs Hawthorn Hawks.
5 tracked player props · exact probability, edge and line unlock with a subscription.

Today's Game Pick

Model edge
Moneyline
Brisbane Lions
Odds: -185
Model prob: 66.2%
+1.2%
Free pick — today's headline game edge

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Today's Player Props

Edge in green
PlayerStatModel output
Conor McKenna Goals Line, odds & edge locked
Levi Ashcroft Disposals Line, odds & edge locked
Lachie Neale Disposals Line, odds & edge locked
Charlie Cameron Goals Line, odds & edge locked
Oscar Allen Goals Line, odds & edge locked

Every player prop for this team — line, odds, pick and edge — is ready for subscribers. Today's headline game pick above is free.

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Calibrated Edge — Game Markets

Calibrated vs fair
MarketModel output
Total Points H1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points H2Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Head to HeadProbability, fair odds & edge locked
SpreadProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Team Total Points H1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q3Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Head to HeadProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q4Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q2Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Team Total Points Q1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Spread Q4Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Spread Q2Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Spread Q3Probability, fair odds & edge locked

Full model-edge table — 14 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Player availability is not tracked for AFL. No injury/availability feed is available for this competition — absence of a listing here does not mean every player is fit.

Weather & Venue Context

Conditions
Typical conditions recorded at this team's matches:
Mostly Sunny
36% of games
Rain
23% of games
Overcast
15% of games
Sunny
13% of games
Clear Night
9% of games
Mostly Clear
4% of games
Average 20°C at these grounds
Historical ground conditions (not a live forecast).

Model Performance History

All results →
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateOpponentMarketPickResult

Betting angles

13 markets live
Moneylinevs Hawthorn Hawks-185
66%model win %
+24.2avg margin (L5)
Model pickBrisbane Lions to winPF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Moneyline: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions to win at -185, a 66% model win % (HIGH). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Linevs Hawthorn Hawks-5.5 -111
69%cover %
+24.2avg margin (L5)
Model pickBrisbane Lions -5.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Line: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions -5.5 at -111, a 69% cover % (HIGH). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Team total 1st halfvs Hawthorn Hawks47.5 -122
59%under %
43.8proj. team pts (half)
Model pickBrisbane Lions Under 47.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Team total 1st half: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions Under 47.5 at -122, a 59% under % (LEAN). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Team total Q1vs Hawthorn Hawks23.5 -118
55%under %
21.9proj. team pts (quarter)
Model pickBrisbane Lions Under 23.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Team total Q1: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions Under 23.5 at -118, a 55% under % (LEAN). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Total 1st halfvs Hawthorn Hawks92.5 -111
72%under %
80.6proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 92.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Total 1st half: the model's pick is Under 92.5 at -111, a 72% under % (HIGH). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Total 2nd halfvs Hawthorn Hawks93.5 -120
74%under %
80.6proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 93.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Total 2nd half: the model's pick is Under 93.5 at -120, a 74% under % (HIGH). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q1vs Hawthorn Hawks47.5 -122
69%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 47.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Total Q1: the model's pick is Under 47.5 at -122, a 69% under % (HIGH). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q2vs Hawthorn Hawks45.5 -118
64%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 45.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Total Q2: the model's pick is Under 45.5 at -118, a 64% under % (LEAN). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q3vs Hawthorn Hawks47.5 -122
69%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 47.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Total Q3: the model's pick is Under 47.5 at -122, a 69% under % (HIGH). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q4vs Hawthorn Hawks45.5 -115
64%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 45.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Total Q4: the model's pick is Under 45.5 at -115, a 64% under % (LEAN). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Line Q2vs Hawthorn Hawks-1.5 -111
60%cover %
+24.2avg margin (L5)
Model pickBrisbane Lions -1.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Line Q2: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions -1.5 at -111, a 60% cover % (LEAN). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Line Q3vs Hawthorn Hawks-1.5 -115
60%cover %
+24.2avg margin (L5)
Model pickBrisbane Lions -1.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Line Q3: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions -1.5 at -115, a 60% cover % (LEAN). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

Line Q4vs Hawthorn Hawks-1.5 -110
60%cover %
+24.2avg margin (L5)
Model pickBrisbane Lions -1.5PF/G111.0PA/G86.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Aug 7 - Line Q4: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions -1.5 at -110, a 60% cover % (LEAN). Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 against over their last five games.

For & against (last 5 games)

Brisbane Lions are averaging 111.0 points for and 86.8 points against over their last 5 games, holding a 0-5 record.

0-5
Last 5
111.0
Points For / G
86.8
Points Against / G
+24.2
Margin / G
16.8
Goals / G
10.2
Behinds / G
58.2
Inside 50s / G

About This Team

Brisbane Lions are tracked by the Bet Better model across AFL games. Their next game is against Hawthorn Hawks on Friday 7 August at Gabba. The model currently tracks 5 player props for Brisbane Lions in this game. Use the data above to inform your AFL betting decisions for Brisbane Lions.

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