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AFL

Brisbane Lions

Today's best bet on this team, checked by our model — with the full result history below.

Every pick graded — see verified results
Next Game: vs Hawthorn Hawks (Away) Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM MCG, Melbourne · Outdoor

Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 7 bookmakers compared
Winner
Brisbane Lions1.82-122Kalshi
Hawthorn Hawks2.04+104Kalshi
Total points
Over184.51.90-111PointsBet
Under184.51.90-111PointsBet

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks odds by bookmaker

7 books · best price in green
BookBrisbane Lions winHawthorn Hawks winOver 184.5Under 184.5
Dabble——1.88-1141.88-114
Kalshi1.82-1222.04+104——
PointsBet——1.90-1111.90-111
Polymarket1.80-1252.25+125——
Sportsbet————
TAB——1.90-1111.90-111
TABtouch——1.89-1121.89-112

Since the market opened: Hawthorn Hawks to win opened 1.97, best now 2.25; the over 184.5 opened 1.89, best now 1.90 (decimal, best book).

Model updated Sep 15, 5:18AM UTC
Answer
The Brisbane Lions model is leaning the under in the Team Total Points Q1 market vs Hawthorn Hawks.
9 tracked player props · the full numbers on every bet unlock with a subscription.

Scoring profile

Points scored per game117.9
Points allowed per game92.4

Across the last 10 completed games on record.

Today's Game Pick

Our call
Team Total Points Q1
Under 21.5
Odds: -108
Our numbers say this wins about 53 times in 100 · a $100 bet returns about $193 if it lands
+1.0%
Free pick — today's headline bet on this team

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Today's Player Props

Best value in green
PlayerStatModel output
Noah Answerth Disposals With Pro
Conor McKenna Goals With Pro
Harris Andrews Disposals With Pro
Darcy Wilmot Disposals With Pro
Cam Rayner Disposals With Pro
Kai Lohmann Disposals With Pro

Every player bet for this team — the line, the call and how much to put on — is ready for subscribers. Today's headline game pick above is free.

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Upcoming Games

Next 2
DateOpponentWhereVenuePrediction
Sat 19 SepHawthorn HawksAwayMCGPreview →
Sat 19 SepHawthornAwayMCGPreview →

Recent Results

8–2 in the last 10
DateOpponentWhereScoreResultRecap
12 SepAdelaide CrowsHome144–91WRecap →
5 SepSydney SwansAway88–141LRecap →
21 AugCollingwoodAway159–96WRecap →
15 AugGold Coast SUNSHome95–53WRecap →
7 AugHawthornHome125–58WRecap →
1 AugCarltonAway78–154LRecap →
26 JulPort AdelaideHome126–67WRecap →
2 JulGeelong CatsAway123–101WRecap →
25 JunSydney SwansHome126–83WRecap →
14 JunRichmondAway115–80WRecap →

Every Game Bet, Graded

Our number vs the price
MarketModel output
Team Total Points H1With Pro
MoneylineWith Pro
Team Total Points Q1With Pro

The model has graded 3 game bets on this team — which ones it backs, and how much to put on, is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Player availability is not tracked for AFL. No injury/availability feed is available for this competition — absence of a listing here does not mean every player is fit.

Weather & Venue Context

Conditions
Typical conditions recorded at this team's matches:
Mostly Sunny
36% of games
Rain
23% of games
Overcast
15% of games
Sunny
13% of games
Clear Night
9% of games
Mostly Clear
4% of games
Average 20°C at these grounds
Historical ground conditions (not a live forecast).

Cashed picks for this team

All results →
DateOpponentMarketPickResult
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows Spread Q3 Brisbane Lions -5.5 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows Spread Q2 Brisbane Lions -4.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Sydney Swans Team Total Points H1 Over 39.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Sydney Swans Team Total Points Q1 Over 20.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Sydney Swans Team Total Points H1 Over 40.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns Spread Q2 Brisbane Lions -7.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns Spread Q3 Brisbane Lions -8.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns Team Total Points Q1 Under 27.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns Spread Q4 Brisbane Lions -8.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns Spread Q4 Brisbane Lions -7.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

Betting angles

1 market live
Moneylinevs Hawthorn Hawks+100
53%model win %
+35.0avg margin (L5)
Model pickHawthorn Hawks to winPF/G120.8PA/G85.8L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Sep 19 - Moneyline: the model's pick is Hawthorn Hawks to win at +100, a 53% model win % (LEAN). Brisbane Lions are averaging 120.8 points for and 85.8 against over their last five games.

For & against (last 5 games)

Brisbane Lions are averaging 120.8 points for and 85.8 points against over their last 5 games, holding a 0-5 record.

0-5
Last 5
120.8
Points For / G
85.8
Points Against / G
+35.0
Margin / G
18.2
Goals / G
11.6
Behinds / G
58.0
Inside 50s / G

About This Team

Brisbane Lions are tracked by the Bet Better model across AFL games. Their next game is against Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG. The model currently tracks 9 player props for Brisbane Lions in this game. Use the data above to inform your AFL betting decisions for Brisbane Lions.

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