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AFL

Brisbane Lions

Today's best bet on this team, checked by our model — with the full result history below.

Every pick graded — see verified results
Next Game: vs Adelaide Crows (Home) Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM Gabba, Brisbane · Outdoor

Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 2 bookmakers compared
Winner
Adelaide Crows3.57+257Kalshi
Brisbane Lions1.35-285Kalshi

Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions odds by bookmaker

2 books · best price in green
BookAdelaide Crows winBrisbane Lions win
Kalshi3.57+2571.35-285
Polymarket3.77+2771.36-277

Since the market opened: Brisbane Lions to win opened 1.36, best now 1.36 (decimal, best book).

Model updated Sep 8, 12:09PM UTC
Answer
The Brisbane Lions model is leaning Adelaide Crows on the spread in the Spread market vs Adelaide Crows.
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Scoring profile

Points scored per game111.3
Points allowed per game93.6

Across the last 10 completed games on record.

Today's Game Pick

Our call
Spread
Adelaide Crows +18.5
Odds: -111
Our numbers say this wins about 47 times in 100 · a $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands
+1.0%
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Upcoming Games

Next 1
DateOpponentWhereVenuePrediction
Sat 12 SepAdelaide CrowsHomeGabbaPreview →

Recent Results

7–3 in the last 10
DateOpponentWhereScoreResultRecap
5 SepSydney SwansAway88–141LRecap →
21 AugCollingwoodAway159–96WRecap →
15 AugGold Coast SUNSHome95–53WRecap →
7 AugHawthornHome125–58WRecap →
1 AugCarltonAway78–154LRecap →
26 JulPort AdelaideHome126–67WRecap →
2 JulGeelong CatsAway123–101WRecap →
25 JunSydney SwansHome126–83WRecap →
14 JunRichmondAway115–80WRecap →
30 MayFremantleHome78–103LRecap →

Every Game Bet, Graded

Our number vs the price
MarketModel output
MoneylineWith Pro
SpreadWith Pro

The model has graded 2 game bets on this team — which ones it backs, and how much to put on, is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Player availability is not tracked for AFL. No injury/availability feed is available for this competition — absence of a listing here does not mean every player is fit.

Weather & Venue Context

Conditions
Typical conditions recorded at this team's matches:
Mostly Sunny
36% of games
Rain
23% of games
Overcast
15% of games
Sunny
13% of games
Clear Night
9% of games
Mostly Clear
4% of games
Average 20°C at these grounds
Historical ground conditions (not a live forecast).

Cashed picks for this team

All results →
DateOpponentMarketPickResult
05 Sep 26 Sydney Swans Team Total Points Q1 Over 20.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Sydney Swans Team Total Points H1 Over 39.5 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Sydney Swans Team Total Points H1 Over 40.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns Spread Q2 Brisbane Lions -7.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns Spread Q3 Brisbane Lions -8.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns Team Total Points Q1 Under 27.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns Spread Q4 Brisbane Lions -8.5 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns Spread Q4 Brisbane Lions -7.5 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks Moneyline Brisbane Lions ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks Spread Brisbane Lions -3.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

Betting angles

2 markets live
Moneylinevs Adelaide Crows+214
+31.8avg margin (L5)
Model pickAdelaide Crows to winPF/G114.8PA/G83.0L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows on Sep 12 - Moneyline: the model's pick is Adelaide Crows to win at +214, a 35% model win % (LONG-SHOT). Brisbane Lions are averaging 114.8 points for and 83.0 against over their last five games.

Linevs Adelaide Crows18.5 -111
54%cover %
+31.8avg margin (L5)
Model pickAdelaide Crows +18.5PF/G114.8PA/G83.0L50-5

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows on Sep 12 - Line: the model's pick is Adelaide Crows +18.5 at -111, a 54% cover % (LEAN). Brisbane Lions are averaging 114.8 points for and 83.0 against over their last five games.

For & against (last 5 games)

Brisbane Lions are averaging 114.8 points for and 83.0 points against over their last 5 games, holding a 0-5 record.

0-5
Last 5
114.8
Points For / G
83.0
Points Against / G
+31.8
Margin / G
17.4
Goals / G
10.4
Behinds / G
56.2
Inside 50s / G

About This Team

Brisbane Lions are tracked by the Bet Better model across AFL games. Their next game is against Adelaide Crows on Saturday 12 September at Gabba. Use the data above to inform your AFL betting decisions for Brisbane Lions.

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