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The latest Bet Better model pick for Oliver Dempsey is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +2.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:50AM UTC
AFL

Oliver Dempsey

Geelong Cats

+2.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -263 (1.38)
+2.9% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
75.4%
Implied Probability
72.5%
Model Edge
+2.9%
Predicted Value
17.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.4%—72.5%1.33+2.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Oliver Dempsey (Geelong Cats) Over 14.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Oliver Dempsey, the midfield maestro for Geelong, is poised to shine in their clash against Brisbane at GMHBA Stadium. Over his last five home games, Dempsey has been a disposal machine, averaging a robust 21.8 touches per game. His recent form is solid, hitting an average of 17.2 disposals against Brisbane in their last encounters. With a current hit streak of 3 at home and an impressive overall hit rate of 6 out of 7, Dempsey thrives under the home floodlights. His ability to find space, utilize his kicks, and churn out quality possessions makes the Over 14.5 disposals a tantalizing bet. Expect Dempsey to orchestrate the midfield, rack up the possessions, and lead the Cats to victory on his home turf.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 18.5
19avg disposals L5
Home20.8vs St Kilda18Season best27
O 16.580%
O 17.570%
O 18.560%
O 19.550%
O 20.540%
O 21.540%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)avg 17.2 · hi 23 · lo 5
2317518182020211515

Oliver Dempsey has gone over 18.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19 disposals, best 27).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.6avg goals L5
Home1.2vs St Kilda1.8Season best3
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 0.9 · hi 3 · lo 0
0113011101

Oliver Dempsey has gone over 1.5 goals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.6 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 14.5 Over -263 ✗ MISS
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 13.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -213 ✗ MISS
26 Mar 26 Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Oliver Dempsey (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oliver Dempsey is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 2 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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