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The latest Bet Better model pick for Oliver Dempsey is Under 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +19.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 12:13PM UTC
AFL

Oliver Dempsey

Geelong Cats

+19.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 20.5 -111 (1.90)
+19.2% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 30 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.8%
Implied Probability
52.6%
Model Edge
+19.2%
Predicted Value
17.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.8%52.6%1.39+19.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Oliver Dempsey (Geelong Cats) Under 20.5 Disposals (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Oliver Dempsey's away form has been solid, averaging 17.2 disposals over his last five games on the road. However, facing Collingwood, who have limited him to an average of 15.5 disposals in their previous encounters, suggests a tough matchup. With a disposals line set at 20.5, Dempsey's recent trend of 19.6 disposals overall, along with a slight dip in contested possessions and disposal efficiency, indicates a potential struggle to hit that mark. His turnover rate of 3.2 per game could prove costly against a disciplined Magpies side. Despite his impressive 80.6% disposal efficiency away, the pressure from Collingwood may force riskier plays. Considering his current hit streak of just one game and a model predicting 17.6 disposals, betting under 20.5 disposals for Oliver Dempsey could be a prudent move in this clash at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 21.5
22avg disposals L5
Home22.4vs Essendon18Season best27
O 19.560%
O 20.550%
O 21.550%
O 22.520%
O 23.510%
O 24.510%
Game log vs line (O 21.5)avg 17.2 · hi 23 · lo 5
2317518182020211515

Oliver Dempsey has gone over 21.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22 disposals, best 27).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 1.5
1.8avg goals L5
Home1.4vs Essendon1.7Season best3
O 0.570%
O 1.560%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 0.9 · hi 3 · lo 0
0113011101

Oliver Dempsey has gone over 1.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.8 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 20.5 Under -111 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 20.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 14.5 Over -263 ✗ MISS
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Goals Pending

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About This Player

Oliver Dempsey (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oliver Dempsey is Under 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.2% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies on Thursday 30 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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