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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Oliver Dempsey is Under 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 53%, edge +19.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 2:45PM UTC
AFL

Oliver Dempsey

Geelong Cats

+19.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 20.5 -111 (1.90) · $100→$190
+19.2% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 30 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
17.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.8% · the book's price implies 52.6% · gap +19.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.8%52.6%1.39+19.2%

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AI Analysis

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Oliver Dempsey (Geelong Cats) Under 20.5 Disposals (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Oliver Dempsey's away form has been solid, averaging 17.2 disposals over his last five games on the road. However, facing Collingwood, who have limited him to an average of 15.5 disposals in their previous encounters, suggests a tough matchup. With a disposals line set at 20.5, Dempsey's recent trend of 19.6 disposals overall, along with a slight dip in contested possessions and disposal efficiency, indicates a potential struggle to hit that mark. His turnover rate of 3.2 per game could prove costly against a disciplined Magpies side. Despite his impressive 80.6% disposal efficiency away, the pressure from Collingwood may force riskier plays. Considering his current hit streak of just one game and a model predicting 17.6 disposals, betting under 20.5 disposals for Oliver Dempsey could be a prudent move in this clash at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Oliver Dempsey averaged 17.4 disposals, 0.9 goals and 4.4 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

17.4
Disposals
0.9
Goals
4.4
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Oliver Dempsey recorded 15 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions15142
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide15062
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles21192
17 Aug 24St Kilda20120
10 Aug 24Fremantle20152
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows18021
27 Jul 24North Melbourne18325
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs5103
12 Jul 24Collingwood171104
6 Jul 24Hawthorn23032
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 20.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Oliver Dempsey (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oliver Dempsey is Under 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.2% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies on Thursday 30 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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