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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bruce Reville is Under 12.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 68%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +12.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:56AM UTC
AFL

Bruce Reville

Brisbane Lions

+12.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 12.5 -127 (1.79)
+12.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
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Model Probability
68.3%
Implied Probability
55.9%
Model Edge
+12.4%
Predicted Value
10.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals68.3%—55.9%1.46+12.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Bruce Reville (Brisbane Lions) Under 12.5 Disposals (-127)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bruce Reville is likely to fall under 12.5 disposals against Geelong Cats due to his recent performance indicators. Despite averaging 10 disposals in his last five away games, his historical matchup against Geelong shows a lower average of only 4.5 disposals. With a solid contested possessions average of 2.2 and a high disposalefficiency of 80.9%, Reville's ability to impact the game efficiently is evident. Considering his recent trends, hitting 6 out of 8 under this line in away games and boasting an overall hit rate of 13 out of 16, the model's prediction of 10.1 disposals aligns well with his current form. The bet on Reville staying under 12.5 disposals presents a favorable opportunity given his consistent performance patterns.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 15.5
15.6avg disposals L5
Away14.6vs West Coast Eagles4.5Season best18
O 13.560%
O 14.560%
O 15.560%
O 16.550%
O 17.520%
O 18.520%
Game log vs line (O 15.5)avg 10.1 · hi 18 · lo 1
1210131317189126

Bruce Reville has gone over 15.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 15.6 disposals, best 18).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Bruce Reville (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bruce Reville is Under 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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