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AFL

Bruce Reville

Brisbane Lions

+13.3% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 12.5 -122 (1.82)
+13.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
Model Probability
68.3%
Implied Probability
54.9%
Model Edge
+13.3%
Predicted Value
10.1 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Bruce Reville (Brisbane Lions) Under 12.5 Disposals (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bruce Reville's recent away performance, averaging 10 disposals in the last five games, aligns with the model's prediction of 10.1. With a standard deviation of 5, his consistency and lower-end average suggest a safer bet on the under 12.5 line. Reville's disposals against the Geelong Cats and in away games have been below this line, making the under a favorable choice. His hit rates and streaks also indicate a trend toward meeting or falling short of this mark. Additionally, his turnovers and contested possessions may impact his total disposals. Betting under 12.5 on Reville with sportsbet presents a 13.3% edge, reflecting a higher probability of this outcome.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (10 picks) 50.0% (5/10)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 12.5 Under -122 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 12.5 Under -122 ✗ MISS
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 12.5 Under -133 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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