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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Day is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 79%, implied 65%, edge +14.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 6:13PM UTC
AFL

Sam Day

Brisbane Lions

+14.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -185 (1.54) · $100→$154
+14.2% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 5 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 21°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
1.1 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 79.1% · the book's price implies 64.9% · gap +14.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals79.1%64.9%1.26+14.2%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Day (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-185)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

In the upcoming AFL clash at the Gabba, Brisbane Lions' Sam Day is poised to be a key player to watch against Port Adelaide Power. Bettors looking at the 'player_goal_scorer_anytime' market will find enticing prospects with Day’s line set at 0.5 goals, with favorable odds of 1.54 (-185.19 in American odds). This indicates a strong likelihood of Day finding the back of the net at least once during the match. Given his recent form and performance consistency, punters are considering this a value bet. Over his last five games, Day has consistently contributed to Brisbane’s attacking prowess. Operating at his home venue, the Gabba, adds an additional layer of comfort and confidence to his performance. The Lions have been formidable on their turf, making it an advantageous setting for Day to continue his goal-scoring streak. With Port Adelaide’s defense facing challenges in recent outings, particularly away from home, Day's chances of scoring are amplified. This matchup presents a promising opportunity for AFL bettors to capitalize on Day’s goal-scoring capability, especially considering the favorable odds and his current form.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Sam Day averaged 9.0 disposals, 2.0 goals and 5.4 marks per game across 5 games in 2024.

9.0
Disposals
2.0
Goals
5.4
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Jul 24 vs North Melbourne), Sam Day recorded 11 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Jul 24North Melbourne11280
29 Jun 24Collingwood8151
23 Jun 24Fremantle12372
16 May 24Geelong Cats7332
28 Apr 24West Coast Eagles7144
12 Aug 23Sydney Swans7040
20 May 23Brisbane Lions2011
12 May 23West Coast Eagles10154
13 Aug 22Geelong Cats4121
17 Jul 22Essendon6242
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam Day (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Day is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.2% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 5 July at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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