Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brandon Starcevich is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 68%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +1.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 8:28PM UTC
AFL

Brandon Starcevich

Brisbane Lions

+1.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -204 (1.49) · $100→$149
+1.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
68.4%
Implied Probability
67.1%
Model Edge
+1.3%
Predicted Value
11.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals68.4%—67.1%1.46+1.3%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Brandon Starcevich (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Brandon Starcevich is poised to shine with his recent form. His average of 11.4 disposals in away games, paired with a solid contested possessions average of 3.4, indicates his ability to meet the line. With a consistent trend of 5 successful outings, including a hit rate of 3/3 in away games, Starcevich has the momentum to surpass 9.5 disposals against Geelong. His efficiency and impact with 219.8 metres gained on average further support his potential to excel. Considering his recent performance against Geelong and an overall disposals average of 11.8, the model's prediction of 11.9 aligns well with his capabilities, making the Over 9.5 disposals bet a strong choice for this matchup.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brandon Starcevich averaged 11.4 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

11.4
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.3
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Brandon Starcevich has cleared 10.5 disposals in 60% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.560%
o11.550%
o12.540%
o14.530%
o15.510%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o21.50%
o22.50%
o24.50%
o25.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Brandon Starcevich is averaging 13.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

13.8
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Brandon Starcevich recorded 16 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans16084
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats15071
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS9027
7 Sep 24Carlton14052
17 Aug 24Collingwood9010
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13053
4 Aug 24St Kilda14070
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS15082
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans8021
7 Jul 24Adelaide Crows2010
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Brandon Starcevich (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brandon Starcevich is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.