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The latest Bet Better model pick for Brandon Starcevich is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 68%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +1.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 1:54PM UTC
AFL

Brandon Starcevich

Brisbane Lions

+1.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -204 (1.49)
+1.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
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Model Probability
68.4%
Implied Probability
67.1%
Model Edge
+1.3%
Predicted Value
11.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals68.4%—67.1%1.46+1.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Brandon Starcevich (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Brandon Starcevich is poised to shine with his recent form. His average of 11.4 disposals in away games, paired with a solid contested possessions average of 3.4, indicates his ability to meet the line. With a consistent trend of 5 successful outings, including a hit rate of 3/3 in away games, Starcevich has the momentum to surpass 9.5 disposals against Geelong. His efficiency and impact with 219.8 metres gained on average further support his potential to excel. Considering his recent performance against Geelong and an overall disposals average of 11.8, the model's prediction of 11.9 aligns well with his capabilities, making the Over 9.5 disposals bet a strong choice for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
12.6avg disposals L5
Away9.8vs Fremantle13.8Season best19
O 10.560%
O 11.550%
O 12.530%
O 13.520%
O 14.520%
O 15.510%
Game log vs line (O 12.5)avg 11.5 · hi 16 · lo 2
2815141391491516

Brandon Starcevich has gone over 12.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 12.6 disposals, best 19).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Brandon Starcevich (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brandon Starcevich is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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