AFL
Essendon Bombers
Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.
Next Game:
vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (Home)
Sun 19 Jul, 6:40AM
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne · Outdoor
Model updated Jul 16, 9:49AM UTC
Answer
The Essendon Bombers model is leaning the under in the Total Points Q1 market vs Greater Western Sydney Giants.
exact probability, edge and line unlock with a subscription.
Total Points Q1
Under 44.5
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| Market | Model output |
|---|
| Total Points | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Team Total Points Q1 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points H2 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points H1 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q3 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q1 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q2 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q4 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
Full model-edge table — 8 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.
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Player availability is not tracked for AFL. No injury/availability feed is available for this competition — absence of a listing here does not mean every player is fit.
| Date | Opponent | Market | Pick | Result |
|---|
| 05 Jul 26 |
 St Kilda Saints |
Total Points |
Under 176.5 |
✓ HIT |
| 05 Jul 26 |
St Kilda Saints |
Total Points |
Under 177.5 |
✓ HIT |
Betting angles
8 markets liveTotal pointsvs Greater Western Sydney Giants177.5 -112+19.2% edge 72%under %
160.8proj. total pts
Model pickUnder 177.5PF/G55.6PA/G98.8L50-5
Essendon Bombers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Jul 19 - Total points: the model's pick is Under 177.5 at -112, a 72% under % (+19.2% edge). Essendon Bombers are averaging 55.6 points for and 98.8 against over their last five games.
Team total Q1vs Greater Western Sydney Giants16.5 -115+17.4% edge 71%over %
22.9proj. team pts (quarter)
Model pickEssendon Bombers Over 16.5PF/G55.6PA/G98.8L50-5
Essendon Bombers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Jul 19 - Team total Q1: the model's pick is Essendon Bombers Over 16.5 at -115, a 71% over % (+17.4% edge). Essendon Bombers are averaging 55.6 points for and 98.8 against over their last five games.
Total 1st halfvs Greater Western Sydney Giants88.5 -116+11.8% edge 66%under %
80.4proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 88.5PF/G55.6PA/G98.8L50-5
Essendon Bombers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Jul 19 - Total 1st half: the model's pick is Under 88.5 at -116, a 66% under % (+11.8% edge). Essendon Bombers are averaging 55.6 points for and 98.8 against over their last five games.
Total 2nd halfvs Greater Western Sydney Giants88.5 -112+12.7% edge 66%under %
80.4proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 88.5PF/G55.6PA/G98.8L50-5
Essendon Bombers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Jul 19 - Total 2nd half: the model's pick is Under 88.5 at -112, a 66% under % (+12.7% edge). Essendon Bombers are averaging 55.6 points for and 98.8 against over their last five games.
Total Q1vs Greater Western Sydney Giants44.5 -114+8.6% edge 62%under %
40.2proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 44.5PF/G55.6PA/G98.8L50-5
Essendon Bombers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Jul 19 - Total Q1: the model's pick is Under 44.5 at -114, a 62% under % (+8.6% edge). Essendon Bombers are averaging 55.6 points for and 98.8 against over their last five games.
Total Q2vs Greater Western Sydney Giants43.5 -120+4.5% edge 59%under %
40.2proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 43.5PF/G55.6PA/G98.8L50-5
Essendon Bombers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Jul 19 - Total Q2: the model's pick is Under 43.5 at -120, a 59% under % (+4.5% edge). Essendon Bombers are averaging 55.6 points for and 98.8 against over their last five games.
Total Q3vs Greater Western Sydney Giants45.5 -118+10.4% edge 64%under %
40.2proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 45.5PF/G55.6PA/G98.8L50-5
Essendon Bombers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Jul 19 - Total Q3: the model's pick is Under 45.5 at -118, a 64% under % (+10.4% edge). Essendon Bombers are averaging 55.6 points for and 98.8 against over their last five games.
Total Q4vs Greater Western Sydney Giants43.5 -122+4.2% edge 59%under %
40.2proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 43.5PF/G55.6PA/G98.8L50-5
Essendon Bombers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Jul 19 - Total Q4: the model's pick is Under 43.5 at -122, a 59% under % (+4.2% edge). Essendon Bombers are averaging 55.6 points for and 98.8 against over their last five games.
For & against (last 5 games)
Essendon are averaging 55.6 points for and 98.8 points against over their last 5 games, holding a 0-5 record.
Essendon Bombers are tracked by the Bet Better model across AFL games. Their next game is against Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 19 July at Marvel Stadium. Use the data above to inform your AFL betting decisions for Essendon Bombers.