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AFL

Essendon Bombers

Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.

Next Game: vs Geelong Cats (Away) Sat 8 Aug, 6:35AM GMHBA Stadium, Geelong · Outdoor
Model updated Aug 5, 3:42PM UTC
Answer
The Essendon Bombers model is leaning the under in the Total Points market vs Geelong Cats.
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Today's Game Pick

Model edge
Total Points
Under 183.5
Odds: -111
Model prob: 68.1%
+15.5%
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Calibrated Edge — Game Markets

Calibrated vs fair
MarketModel output
Team Total Points Q1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total PointsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points H1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points H2Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q3Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q4Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q2Probability, fair odds & edge locked

Full model-edge table — 8 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Player availability is not tracked for AFL. No injury/availability feed is available for this competition — absence of a listing here does not mean every player is fit.

Weather & Venue Context

Conditions
Typical conditions recorded at this team's matches:
Mostly Sunny
46% of games
Rain
23% of games
Overcast
17% of games
Sunny
6% of games
Mostly Clear
5% of games
Clear Night
4% of games
Average 18°C at these grounds
Historical ground conditions (not a live forecast).

Model Performance History

All results →
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateOpponentMarketPickResult
02 Aug 26 Adelaide Crows Team Total Points H1 Under 52.5 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 Adelaide Crows Team Total Points H1 Under 53.5 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 Adelaide Crows Team Total Points Q1 Over 16.5 ✓ HIT

Betting angles

8 markets live
Total pointsvs Geelong Cats183.5 -112
68%under %
170.1proj. total pts
Model pickUnder 183.5PF/G56.4PA/G118.8L51-4

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Aug 8 - Total points: the model's pick is Under 183.5 at -112, a 68% under % (HIGH). Essendon Bombers are averaging 56.4 points for and 118.8 against over their last five games.

Team total Q1vs Geelong Cats14.5 -114
71%over %
20.6proj. team pts (quarter)
Model pickEssendon Bombers Over 14.5PF/G56.4PA/G118.8L51-4

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Aug 8 - Team total Q1: the model's pick is Essendon Bombers Over 14.5 at -114, a 71% over % (HIGH). Essendon Bombers are averaging 56.4 points for and 118.8 against over their last five games.

Total 1st halfvs Geelong Cats91.5 -112
63%under %
85.0proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 91.5PF/G56.4PA/G118.8L51-4

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Aug 8 - Total 1st half: the model's pick is Under 91.5 at -112, a 63% under % (LEAN). Essendon Bombers are averaging 56.4 points for and 118.8 against over their last five games.

Total 2nd halfvs Geelong Cats91.5 -116
63%under %
85.0proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 91.5PF/G56.4PA/G118.8L51-4

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Aug 8 - Total 2nd half: the model's pick is Under 91.5 at -116, a 63% under % (LEAN). Essendon Bombers are averaging 56.4 points for and 118.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q1vs Geelong Cats46.5 -109
61%under %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 46.5PF/G56.4PA/G118.8L51-4

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Aug 8 - Total Q1: the model's pick is Under 46.5 at -109, a 61% under % (LEAN). Essendon Bombers are averaging 56.4 points for and 118.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q2vs Geelong Cats44.5 -118
56%under %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 44.5PF/G56.4PA/G118.8L51-4

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Aug 8 - Total Q2: the model's pick is Under 44.5 at -118, a 56% under % (LEAN). Essendon Bombers are averaging 56.4 points for and 118.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q3vs Geelong Cats46.5 -114
61%under %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 46.5PF/G56.4PA/G118.8L51-4

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Aug 8 - Total Q3: the model's pick is Under 46.5 at -114, a 61% under % (LEAN). Essendon Bombers are averaging 56.4 points for and 118.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q4vs Geelong Cats44.5 -114
56%under %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 44.5PF/G56.4PA/G118.8L51-4

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Aug 8 - Total Q4: the model's pick is Under 44.5 at -114, a 56% under % (LEAN). Essendon Bombers are averaging 56.4 points for and 118.8 against over their last five games.

For & against (last 5 games)

Essendon are averaging 56.4 points for and 118.8 points against over their last 5 games, holding a 1-4 record.

1-4
Last 5
56.4
Points For / G
118.8
Points Against / G
-62.4
Margin / G
8.2
Goals / G
7.2
Behinds / G
42.0
Inside 50s / G

About This Team

Essendon Bombers are tracked by the Bet Better model across AFL games. Their next game is against Geelong Cats on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium. Use the data above to inform your AFL betting decisions for Essendon Bombers.

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