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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Charlie Cameron is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +2.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 12:50PM UTC
AFL

Charlie Cameron

Brisbane Lions

+2.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -769 (1.13)
+2.7% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Fri 7 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
91.2%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+2.7%
Predicted Value
1.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals91.2%88.5%1.10+2.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding a sharp edge in goal-scoring props, look no further than the electric Charlie Cameron of the Brisbane Lions. Cameron has been tearing up the turf at Gabba, averaging a blistering 2.4 goals per game in his last five home matches. His accuracy is on point, hitting the scoreboard with 56.3% efficiency, ensuring he capitalizes on his chances. With an impressive streak of 7 consecutive games finding the big sticks at home, Cameron's form is red hot. Facing off against the Hawthorn Hawks, a team he's averaged 2 goals against in his last five matchups, the stage is set for Charlie to snag another goal and keep his scoring streak alive. Bet on Cameron to continue his goal-scoring spree, confidently backing him to bag at least one goal in this upcoming clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Hawthorn HawksO 0.5 -769
100%hit L10 O 0.5
2.2avg goals L5
Home2.4vs Hawthorn2.2Season best5
O 0.5100%
O 1.590%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)10 / 10 hit
1221132221

Charlie Cameron has gone over 0.5 goals in 10 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2.2 goals, best 5). Current line: Over 0.5 at -769.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -667 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Charlie Cameron is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Friday 7 August at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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