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The latest Bet Better model pick for Charlie Cameron is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 87%, for a model edge of +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:55AM UTC
AFL

Charlie Cameron

Brisbane Lions

+4.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -667 (1.15)
+4.1% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
91.1%
Implied Probability
87.0%
Model Edge
+4.1%
Predicted Value
1.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals91.1%—87.0%1.10+4.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-667)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Charlie Cameron stands out like a shining star in the night sky. The Brisbane Lions speedster has been on fire lately, averaging 2 goals in his last 5 away games, showcasing his lethal precision with a 65.3% goal accuracy. Facing the Geelong Cats, a team he's recently averaged 1.6 goals against, only adds fuel to the fire. Cameron isn't just a one-trick pony; he's involved in the Lions' forward plays, with 6.2 score involvements on average in his last 5 away matches. With a solid average of 3.4 shots at goal per game, he's not shy to take his chances. Plus, riding a hot streak with 12 consecutive away games hitting the scoreboard, and an overall hit rate of 11 goals in 11 games, Cameron is a reliable bet to split the middle and keep the goal streak alive. Betting on him to score Over 0.5 goals is not just a hunch; it's a calculated move based on his recent form and the matchup dynamics.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
90%hit L10 O 1.5
1.8avg goals L5
Away1.8vs West Coast Eagles2.3Season best5
O 0.5100%
O 1.590%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1.7 · hi 3 · lo 1
1221132221

Charlie Cameron has gone over 1.5 goals in 9 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.8 goals, best 5).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Charlie Cameron is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 2 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.