Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals (-227)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Cameron's home form makes this line look soft. Over his last five games at the Gabba, he's averaging 13.4 disposals — almost four above the 9.5 mark — with 10.4 of those coming via kicks, which speaks to genuine involvement rather than cheap handballs in traffic. That home average also holds up specifically against Adelaide, where he's averaging 13.0 disposals across their recent meetings. The model projects 11.6 disposals, sitting 2.1 clear of the line with a 2.5% edge over the implied 69.4% probability baked into the $1.44 price. His 299.4 metres gained per home game reinforces that he's moving the ball with purpose, not just racking up garbage-time touches. The clincher is the streak — Cameron has cleared 9.5 disposals in seven straight home appearances, a 7/7 hit rate that's hard to dismiss. The Gabba, a familiar crowd, and a manageable opponent make this a sensible play.