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The latest Bet Better model pick for Levi Ashcroft is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 72%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 1:29PM UTC
AFL

Levi Ashcroft

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 14.5 that pays $140 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
18.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 71.7% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +0.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.7%—71.4%1.39+0.3%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Levi Ashcroft Over 14.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle is playing at home against Brisbane Lions, which makes for an interesting matchup. Levi Ashcroft has been getting plenty of chances to rack up disposals lately. He's been part of a team that wins contested ball and hits the ground running. Plus, Fremantle tends to get it inside 50 more often, which means more opportunities for Ashcroft to get involved. The risk here is that both teams are pretty close when it comes to contested possessions, so it could be tight. Still, with Fremantle's strong play at home and Ashcroft's recent form, betting on him to get over 14.5 disposals seems like a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Levi Ashcroft has cleared 10.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.590%
o11.580%
o13.580%
o14.580%
o16.560%
o17.550%
o19.540%
o21.520%
o22.520%
o24.520%
o25.520%
o27.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Levi Ashcroft is averaging 18.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

18.0
Disp · Overall
0.8
Goals · Overall
Quick answers:How many disposals does Levi Ashcroft average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 14.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 16.5 Over -169 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 15.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Levi Ashcroft is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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