Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Levi Ashcroft is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 58%, for a model edge of +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 2:16PM UTC
AFL

Levi Ashcroft

Brisbane Lions

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -141 (1.71)
+12.1% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Fri 7 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.6%
Implied Probability
58.5%
Model Edge
+12.1%
Predicted Value
19.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.6%—58.5%1.42+12.1%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Over 16.5 Disposals (-141)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Levi Ashcroft, the midfield maestro for the Brisbane Lions, is primed to shine at the Gabba against the Hawthorn Hawks. Over his last five home games, Levi has been a disposal machine, averaging a stellar 20.8 disposals with an impressive 75.2% efficiency. Facing Hawthorn, a team he's recently tallied 19 disposals against, Levi's poised to dominate the contest. His ability to find space, rack up kicks, and generate metres gained bodes well for surpassing the 16.5 disposal line set by the bookies. With his current form red-hot and a history of consistent performances, backing Levi to snag over 16.5 disposals is a savvy move for footy punters looking to cash in on his midfield prowess.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Hawthorn HawksO 16.5 -141
60%hit L10 O 16.5
17.4avg disposals L5
Home20.8vs Hawthorn20.5
O 14.570%
O 15.560%
O 16.560%
O 17.550%
O 18.550%
O 19.540%

Levi Ashcroft has gone over 16.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.4 disposals). Current line: Over 16.5 at -141.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals 16.5 Over -238 ✗ MISS
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 16.5 Over -175 ✓ HIT
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 15.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Levi Ashcroft is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Friday 7 August at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.