Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Levi Ashcroft is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +15.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:45AM UTC
AFL
Levi Ashcroft
Brisbane Lions
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 14.5
-120 (1.83)
+15.9% Edge
Brisbane Lions
@
Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
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Implied Probability
54.6%
Predicted Value
17.2 Disposals
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 70.6% | — | 54.6% | 1.42 | +15.9% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 3/3 |
| Last 5 games | 5/5 |
| Last 10 games | 9/10 |
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Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-120)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Levi Ashcroft is poised to shine against Geelong Cats based on his recent form. With an average of 16.6 disposals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he averages 18 disposals, the Over 14.5 bet seems solid. Ashcroft's consistent uncontested possessions (11) and disposal efficiency (65.0%) support his ability to meet or exceed this line. Despite a low turnover rate (4.4), he maintains a strong metres gained average of 231.8. The model's prediction of 17.2 disposals with a 15.9% edge further boosts confidence in this wager. Ashcroft's overall hit rate of 16/20 and recent away game hit rate of 11/14 indicate his reliability in achieving this mark.
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Betting angles
Markets & formDisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted 60%hit L10 O 18.5
19avg disposals L5
Away18.8vs West Coast Eagles17
O 16.580%
O 17.570%
O 18.560%
O 19.550%
O 20.550%
O 21.530%
Levi Ashcroft has gone over 18.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19 disposals).
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Levi Ashcroft is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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