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The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Ashcroft is Under 27.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +18.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:30PM UTC
AFL

Will Ashcroft

Brisbane Lions

+18.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 27.5 -114 (1.88)
+18.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 28 Mar, 1:35AM
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Model Probability
71.5%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+18.3%
Predicted Value
24.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.5%—53.2%1.40+18.3%

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AI Analysis

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Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to predicting Will Ashcroft's performance in the disposals department against St Kilda, the numbers paint a clear picture. Over his last five away games, Ashcroft has been solid but not spectacular, averaging 25.2 disposals. However, when facing St Kilda in particular, his average dips to 23 disposals. Looking deeper, his contested possessions have averaged 8.4 in away games, indicating he may struggle against St Kilda's pressure. With a model predicting Ashcroft to hit 24.7 disposals and the line set at 27.5, there's a strong case for taking the Under. His recent form suggests he might fall short of the line in this matchup, making this prop bet a compelling option.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
24.3avg disposals recent
Season best30
Disposals last 10avg 24.3 · hi 30 · lo 18
20211829263020272230

Will Ashcroft has a disposals high of 30 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 27.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS
07 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 27.5 Under -119 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Ashcroft is Under 27.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 28 March at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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