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The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Ashcroft is Under 27.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 53%, edge +18.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 4:19AM UTC
AFL

Will Ashcroft

Brisbane Lions

+18.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 27.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
+18.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 28 Mar, 1:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 21°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
24.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.5% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +18.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.5%—53.2%1.40+18.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to predicting Will Ashcroft's performance in the disposals department against St Kilda, the numbers paint a clear picture. Over his last five away games, Ashcroft has been solid but not spectacular, averaging 25.2 disposals. However, when facing St Kilda in particular, his average dips to 23 disposals. Looking deeper, his contested possessions have averaged 8.4 in away games, indicating he may struggle against St Kilda's pressure. With a model predicting Ashcroft to hit 24.7 disposals and the line set at 27.5, there's a strong case for taking the Under. His recent form suggests he might fall short of the line in this matchup, making this prop bet a compelling option.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Will Ashcroft averaged 22.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.2 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.

22.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
5.2
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Goals Scored

Will Ashcroft has cleared 0.5 goals scored in 60% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o0.560%
o1.540%
o2.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Will Ashcroft is averaging 31.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

31.4
Disp · Overall
1.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Will Ashcroft recorded 30 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans30153
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats22031
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS27055
7 Sep 24Carlton20062
24 Aug 24Essendon300153
17 Aug 24Collingwood26061
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS29091
4 Aug 24St Kilda18020
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS21012
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans20034
Quick answers:How many disposals does Will Ashcroft average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Ashcroft is Under 27.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 28 March at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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