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AFL

Will Ashcroft

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: over 94.5 fantasy that pays $139 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
107.5 Fantasy
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 61.3% · before adjusting for past results 72.6% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap -10.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Will Ashcroft
over 94.5 fantasy
Fantasy Over 94.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
Value call
HIGHWins about 61 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.90 Odds-256
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Ashcroft is Over 94.5 on Fantasy.
On Fantasy, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 72%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 16, 7:56PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 21°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Fantasy72.6%61.3%71.9%1.63+0.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Will Ashcroft Over 94.5 Fantasy (-256)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Will Ashcroft has been showing some solid form lately, and he's set to play a key role for the Brisbane Lions against the Hawthorn Hawks. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance to score over 94.5 fantasy points in this matchup. He's been getting involved frequently, especially with disposals and marks, which should help him rack up points. However, one risk to keep in mind is that the teams are quite evenly matched, meaning the game could go in any direction. Still, with Ashcroft's recent performances and the way he plays, this bet feels promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Will Ashcroft averaged 22.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.2 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.

22.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
5.2
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Will Ashcroft has cleared 21.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o21.590%
o22.590%
o24.590%
o25.580%
o27.580%
o28.570%
o30.550%
o32.520%
o33.510%
o35.510%
o36.510%
o38.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Will Ashcroft is averaging 27.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

27.0
Disp · Overall
0.6
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Will Ashcroft recorded 30 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans30153
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats22031
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS27055
7 Sep 24Carlton20062
24 Aug 24Essendon300153
17 Aug 24Collingwood26061
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS29091
4 Aug 24St Kilda18020
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS21012
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans20034
Quick answers:How many disposals does Will Ashcroft average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Fantasy 94.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Tackles 2.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
28 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
07 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Ashcroft is Over 94.5 on Fantasy. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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