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The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Ashcroft is Over 94.5 on Fantasy.
On Fantasy, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 72%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 2:00PM UTC
AFL

Will Ashcroft

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Fantasy Over 94.5 that pays $138 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Fantasy Over 94.5 -263 (1.38) · $100→$138
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 21°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
107.5 Fantasy
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 61.3% · before adjusting for past results 72.6% · the book's price implies 72.5% · gap -11.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Fantasy72.6%61.3%72.5%1.63+0.1%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Will Ashcroft Over 94.5 Fantasy (-263)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Will Ashcroft has been in solid form lately, showing he can really perform on the field. For this match between the Hawthorn Hawks and Brisbane Lions, I like the bet on Ashcroft to score over 94.5 fantasy points. Our numbers suggest that he has a good chance of hitting that mark, especially considering his recent performances where he's shown he can rack up points quickly. One thing to keep in mind is that the competition is tough, and both teams are fairly evenly matched. While Ashcroft has been doing well, there's always a risk that the Hawks' defense could limit his scoring opportunities. Overall, he has the talent and recent form to make this a solid pick, but let's hope he shines in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Will Ashcroft averaged 22.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.2 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.

22.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
5.2
Marks
2.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Will Ashcroft has cleared 21.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o21.590%
o22.590%
o24.590%
o25.580%
o27.580%
o28.570%
o30.550%
o32.520%
o33.510%
o35.510%
o36.510%
o38.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Will Ashcroft is averaging 27.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

27.0
Disp · Overall
0.6
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Will Ashcroft recorded 30 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans30153
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats22031
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS27055
7 Sep 24Carlton20062
24 Aug 24Essendon300153
17 Aug 24Collingwood26061
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS29091
4 Aug 24St Kilda18020
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS21012
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans20034
Quick answers:How many disposals does Will Ashcroft average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Fantasy 94.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Tackles 2.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
07 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Ashcroft is Over 94.5 on Fantasy. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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