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AFL

Will Ashcroft

Brisbane Lions

+19.7% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 27.5 -108 (1.93)
+19.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Sat 28 Mar, 1:35AM
Model Probability
71.5%
Implied Probability
51.8%
Model Edge
+19.7%
Predicted Value
24.7 Disposals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-108)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Will Ashcroft's recent away performances, it's clear he's been a reliable contributor but may fall short of the 27.5 disposal line set for him against St Kilda. Over his last 5 away games, he's averaged 25.2 disposals, with a slightly lower average of 23 disposals specifically against St Kilda. Despite his solid form, his recent stats suggest he may struggle to reach the higher end of his disposal range. With an average of 5.4 turnovers in away games, there's a chance he could be pressured into errors by St Kilda's defense. Additionally, his contested possessions average of 8.4 in away games indicates he might not find as much space against a competitive Saints midfield. Therefore, the under on Ashcroft's disposals could be a smart play in this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (7 picks) 42.9% (3/7)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 27.5 Under -108 ✗ MISS
07 Mar 26 Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 27.5 Under -119 ✗ MISS
20 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 27.5 Under -105 ✗ MISS
13 Sep 25 Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
10 Jul 25 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
05 Jul 25 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 7 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 42.9% (3/7). The latest model pick for Will Ashcroft is Under 27.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 28 March at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.