Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-119)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Will Ashcroft, the lynchpin of the Brisbane Lions midfield, is poised to face the Western Bulldogs at the Gabba. While Ashcroft has been a consistent performer, his recent trends suggest a dip in disposals below the line of 27.5. In his last five home games, he has averaged 27.2 disposals, flirting with the threshold. However, facing the Bulldogs, he has historically hovered around 26 disposals, hinting at a potential slowdown. Despite his solid contested possessions and efficient ball use, Ashcroft may struggle to hit his disposal average given the Bulldogs' defensive pressure. With a model prediction of 25.5 and a statistical edge of 11.4%, the under on Ashcroft's disposals seems the wise play for this intriguing midfield battle at the Gabba.