AFL
Hawthorn Hawks
Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.
Next Game:
vs Brisbane Lions (Away)
Fri 7 Aug, 9:40AM
Gabba, Brisbane · Outdoor
Model updated Aug 5, 4:42PM UTC
Answer
The Hawthorn Hawks model is leaning Brisbane Lions in the Head to Head market vs Brisbane Lions.
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| Market | Model output |
|---|
| Total Points H1 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points H2 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Spread | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Team Total Points H1 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q1 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q3 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Spread | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Head to Head | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q4 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q2 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Team Total Points Q1 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Spread Q4 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Spread Q2 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Spread Q3 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
Full model-edge table — 14 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.
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Player availability is not tracked for AFL. No injury/availability feed is available for this competition — absence of a listing here does not mean every player is fit.
Typical conditions recorded at this team's matches:
Average 17°C at these grounds
Historical ground conditions (not a live forecast).
Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.
| Date | Opponent | Market | Pick | Result |
|---|
Betting angles
13 markets liveMoneylinevs Brisbane Lions-185 66%model win %
+41.2avg margin (L5)
Model pickBrisbane Lions to winPF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Moneyline: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions to win at -185, a 66% model win % (HIGH). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Linevs Brisbane Lions-5.5 -111 69%cover %
+41.2avg margin (L5)
Model pickBrisbane Lions -5.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Line: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions -5.5 at -111, a 69% cover % (HIGH). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Team total 1st halfvs Brisbane Lions44.5 -118 70%under %
36.1proj. team pts (half)
Model pickHawthorn Hawks Under 44.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Team total 1st half: the model's pick is Hawthorn Hawks Under 44.5 at -118, a 70% under % (HIGH). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Team total Q1vs Brisbane Lions21.5 -112 62%under %
18.1proj. team pts (quarter)
Model pickHawthorn Hawks Under 21.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Team total Q1: the model's pick is Hawthorn Hawks Under 21.5 at -112, a 62% under % (LEAN). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Total 1st halfvs Brisbane Lions92.5 -111 72%under %
80.6proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 92.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Total 1st half: the model's pick is Under 92.5 at -111, a 72% under % (HIGH). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Total 2nd halfvs Brisbane Lions93.5 -120 74%under %
80.6proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 93.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Total 2nd half: the model's pick is Under 93.5 at -120, a 74% under % (HIGH). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Total Q1vs Brisbane Lions47.5 -122 69%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 47.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Total Q1: the model's pick is Under 47.5 at -122, a 69% under % (HIGH). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Total Q2vs Brisbane Lions45.5 -118 64%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 45.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Total Q2: the model's pick is Under 45.5 at -118, a 64% under % (LEAN). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Total Q3vs Brisbane Lions47.5 -122 69%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 47.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Total Q3: the model's pick is Under 47.5 at -122, a 69% under % (HIGH). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Total Q4vs Brisbane Lions45.5 -115 64%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 45.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Total Q4: the model's pick is Under 45.5 at -115, a 64% under % (LEAN). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Line Q2vs Brisbane Lions-1.5 -111 60%cover %
+41.2avg margin (L5)
Model pickBrisbane Lions -1.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Line Q2: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions -1.5 at -111, a 60% cover % (LEAN). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Line Q3vs Brisbane Lions-1.5 -115 60%cover %
+41.2avg margin (L5)
Model pickBrisbane Lions -1.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Line Q3: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions -1.5 at -115, a 60% cover % (LEAN). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
Line Q4vs Brisbane Lions-1.5 -110 60%cover %
+41.2avg margin (L5)
Model pickBrisbane Lions -1.5PF/G106.4PA/G65.2L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Aug 7 - Line Q4: the model's pick is Brisbane Lions -1.5 at -110, a 60% cover % (LEAN). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 against over their last five games.
For & against (last 5 games)
Hawthorn are averaging 106.4 points for and 65.2 points against over their last 5 games, holding a 0-5 record.
Hawthorn Hawks are tracked by the Bet Better model across AFL games. Their next game is against Brisbane Lions on Friday 7 August at Gabba. Use the data above to inform your AFL betting decisions for Hawthorn Hawks.