AFL
Hawthorn Hawks
Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.
Next Game:
vs Richmond Tigers (Away)
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
MCG, Melbourne · Outdoor
Model updated Jul 16, 8:09AM UTC
Answer
The Hawthorn Hawks model is leaning the under in the Total Points Q1 market vs Richmond Tigers.
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Total Points Q1
Under 43.5
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| Market | Model output |
|---|
| Total Points | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points H2 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points H1 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q3 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q1 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q4 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
| Total Points Q2 | Probability, fair odds & edge locked |
Full model-edge table — 7 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.
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Player availability is not tracked for AFL. No injury/availability feed is available for this competition — absence of a listing here does not mean every player is fit.
| Date | Opponent | Market | Pick | Result |
|---|
| 11 Jul 26 |
 Carlton Blues |
Head to Head |
Carlton Blues |
✗ MISS |
| 11 Jul 26 |
Carlton Blues |
Spread |
Carlton Blues 12.5 |
✗ MISS |
| 11 Jul 26 |
Carlton Blues |
Spread |
Carlton Blues 13.5 |
✗ MISS |
| 11 Jul 26 |
Carlton Blues |
Total Points |
Under 173.5 |
✓ HIT |
Betting angles
7 markets liveTotal pointsvs Richmond Tigers173.5 -116+12.8% edge 67%under %
161.3proj. total pts
Model pickUnder 173.5PF/G92.0PA/G82.8L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total points: the model's pick is Under 173.5 at -116, a 67% under % (+12.8% edge). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 92.0 points for and 82.8 against over their last five games.
Total 1st halfvs Richmond Tigers85.5 -110+7.1% edge 59%under %
80.7proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 85.5PF/G92.0PA/G82.8L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total 1st half: the model's pick is Under 85.5 at -110, a 59% under % (+7.1% edge). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 92.0 points for and 82.8 against over their last five games.
Total 2nd halfvs Richmond Tigers86.5 -111+8.8% edge 61%under %
80.7proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 86.5PF/G92.0PA/G82.8L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total 2nd half: the model's pick is Under 86.5 at -111, a 61% under % (+8.8% edge). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 92.0 points for and 82.8 against over their last five games.
Total Q1vs Richmond Tigers43.5 -120+4.2% edge 59%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 43.5PF/G92.0PA/G82.8L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total Q1: the model's pick is Under 43.5 at -120, a 59% under % (+4.2% edge). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 92.0 points for and 82.8 against over their last five games.
Total Q2vs Richmond Tigers41.5 -109+1.2% edge 53%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 41.5PF/G92.0PA/G82.8L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total Q2: the model's pick is Under 41.5 at -109, a 53% under % (+1.2% edge). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 92.0 points for and 82.8 against over their last five games.
Total Q3vs Richmond Tigers44.5 -120+6.9% edge 62%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 44.5PF/G92.0PA/G82.8L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total Q3: the model's pick is Under 44.5 at -120, a 62% under % (+6.9% edge). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 92.0 points for and 82.8 against over their last five games.
Total Q4vs Richmond Tigers41.5 -106+1.7% edge 53%under %
40.3proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 41.5PF/G92.0PA/G82.8L50-5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Jul 19 - Total Q4: the model's pick is Under 41.5 at -106, a 53% under % (+1.7% edge). Hawthorn Hawks are averaging 92.0 points for and 82.8 against over their last five games.
For & against (last 5 games)
Hawthorn are averaging 92.0 points for and 82.8 points against over their last 5 games, holding a 0-5 record.
Hawthorn Hawks are tracked by the Bet Better model across AFL games. Their next game is against Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG. Use the data above to inform your AFL betting decisions for Hawthorn Hawks.