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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Gardiner is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 66%, edge +6.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 4, 4:16AM UTC
AFL

Darcy Gardiner

Brisbane Lions

+6.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -192 (1.52) · $100→$152
+6.1% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 16°C (Jun 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
11.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.9% · the book's price implies 65.8% · gap +6.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.9%—65.8%1.39+6.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Darcy Gardiner Over 9.5 Disposals (-192)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Betting on Darcy Gardiner to have over 9.5 disposals is looking promising at these odds. He's part of a Brisbane Lions team that has been strong lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games. The Swans have given up plenty of scoring, allowing around 85 points per match recently, which means Gardiner should have plenty of opportunities to get the ball. One risk to watch is that both teams are closely matched in contested possessions, with the Swans winning slightly more on average. Still, with Gardiner's role in their game plan, he's likely to be involved in a lot of play, making this bet worth considering.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Gardiner averaged 8.1 disposals, 0.4 goals and 2.6 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

8.1
Disposals
0.4
Goals
2.6
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Darcy Gardiner has cleared 9.5 disposals in 50% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.550%
o10.540%
o11.530%
o12.520%
o13.520%
o14.520%
o15.510%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Darcy Gardiner is averaging 8.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

8.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (5 May 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Darcy Gardiner recorded 3 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
5 May 24Gold Coast SUNS3200
25 Apr 24GWS GIANTS5004
20 Apr 24Geelong Cats10043
11 Apr 24Melbourne13063
5 Apr 24North Melbourne11151
17 Mar 24Fremantle4010
8 Mar 24Carlton11022
30 Sep 23Collingwood9033
23 Sep 23Carlton11050
10 Jun 23Hawthorn6025
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Darcy Gardiner (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Gardiner is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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