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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Gardiner is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 63%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 1:32PM UTC
AFL

Darcy Gardiner

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Darcy Gardiner (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Marks Over 2.5 that pays $140 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 16°C (Jun 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
63 in 100
Predicted
4.2 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 62.5% · before adjusting for past results 74.9% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap -8.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks74.9%62.5%71.4%1.60+3.4%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Darcy Gardiner Over 2.5 Marks (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Darcy Gardiner to hit over 2.5 marks tonight, he'll need to be active and involved in the game. The numbers suggest he has a good chance, especially since Fremantle will likely look to him for defensive plays against Brisbane. Gardiner has shown he can step up when it matters, and with the way both teams play, he might find plenty of opportunities. One thing to keep in mind is that the matchup is pretty tight, so he may face tough competition on the field. However, if he can get into the right positions, he should be able to get those marks. It's worth a shot, but remember, no bet is a sure thing!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Gardiner averaged 8.1 disposals, 0.4 goals and 2.6 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

8.1
Disposals
0.4
Goals
2.6
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Darcy Gardiner has cleared 9.5 disposals in 40% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.540%
o10.520%
o11.520%

Home / away and opponent splits

Darcy Gardiner is averaging 6.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

6.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (5 May 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Darcy Gardiner recorded 3 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
5 May 24Gold Coast SUNS3200
25 Apr 24GWS GIANTS5004
20 Apr 24Geelong Cats10043
11 Apr 24Melbourne13063
5 Apr 24North Melbourne11151
17 Mar 24Fremantle4010
8 Mar 24Carlton11022
30 Sep 23Collingwood9033
23 Sep 23Carlton11050
10 Jun 23Hawthorn6025
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 2.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 9.5 Over -120 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Gardiner (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Gardiner is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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