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Darcy Gardiner

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Darcy Gardiner (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: over 2.5 marks that pays $139 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
67 in 100
Predicted
4.6 marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 67.1% · before adjusting for past results 80.1% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap -4.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Darcy Gardiner
over 2.5 marks
Marks Over 2.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
Value call
HIGHWins about 67 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.90 Odds-256
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Gardiner is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 67%, the price says 72%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:06PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 16°C (Jun 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks80.1%67.1%71.9%1.49+8.1%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Darcy Gardiner Over 2.5 Marks (-256)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Darcy Gardiner needs to grab more than 2.5 marks for this bet to pay off. He's been showing good signs lately, and the stats suggest he has a strong chance of stepping up tonight. His recent form makes him a favorite to hit this mark, especially since the game is at the MCG, where players often perform well. However, the most concrete risk here is that he could face tough competition from Fremantle's defense, which may limit his opportunities. Still, given the overall numbers and how he's been playing, it feels like a solid pick for the game against Brisbane.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Gardiner averaged 8.1 disposals, 0.4 goals and 2.6 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

8.1
Disposals
0.4
Goals
2.6
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Darcy Gardiner has cleared 9.5 disposals in 40% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.540%
o10.520%
o11.520%

Home / away and opponent splits

Darcy Gardiner is averaging 6.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

6.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (5 May 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Darcy Gardiner recorded 3 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
5 May 24Gold Coast SUNS3200
25 Apr 24GWS GIANTS5004
20 Apr 24Geelong Cats10043
11 Apr 24Melbourne13063
5 Apr 24North Melbourne11151
17 Mar 24Fremantle4010
8 Mar 24Carlton11022
30 Sep 23Collingwood9033
23 Sep 23Carlton11050
10 Jun 23Hawthorn6025
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 2.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 9.5 Over -120 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Gardiner (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Gardiner is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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