On Friday 21 August 2026, Collingwood Magpies play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) Over 1.5 player_marks_over, priced at -204 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
When it comes to Conor McKenna hitting the over on 1.5 marks in the upcoming clash against Collingwood at the MCG, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, McKenna has been averaging 1.8 marks, showing his ability to impact the game aerially. Even more promising, when facing Collingwood in away matches, he has been hauling in an impressive average of 4 marks. This indicates his comfort and effectiveness against this particular opponent. With the potential for McKenna to exploit Collingwood's defense and capitalize on his previous performances, backing him to secure over 1.5 marks seems like a sound bet. Expect McKenna to elevate his game and provide value in the marks department, making this prop bet a tantalizing prospect for punters looking to snag a win on Friday night.
Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Under 40.5 team_totals_h1 (-110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the Collingwood Magpies clash with the Brisbane Lions at the hallowed MCG, expect a strategic battle unfolding. The Magpies, known for their defensive prowess, have been holding opponents to an average of just 85.2 points in their last five games at home. Their disciplined backline and ability to restrict inside 50 entries to an average of 51 per game make scoring against them a tough task.
On the flip side, the Lions have been stingy on the road, conceding just 77.4 points per game overall. With the Magpies averaging 12.6 goals in their recent home outings, the under on Collingwood's first-half team total of 40.5 seems enticing. The data suggests a low-scoring affair, making the under a compelling play in this Friday night showdown.
Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) Over 9.5 player_kicks_over (-303)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to pinpointing a player primed to make an impact with his kicks, Jordan De Goey stands tall. The Collingwood Magpies dynamo, set to dazzle in front of the home faithful at the MCG against the Brisbane Lions, is forecasted to notch an average of 13.3 kicks per game. With a model edge of 5.9% backing him, De Goey's knack for finding his teammates or taking matters into his own hands is evident. The numbers tell a story of a player in sync with the rhythm of the game, making the Over 9.5 kicks line seem like a stroll through the park for him. So, if you're looking to ride the wave of statistical certainty and back a player who knows how to split the middle, De Goey is the man to put your money on.
Jack Crisp (Collingwood) Over 7.5 player_handballs_over (-192)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player in the handballs department, Jack Crisp stands out like a bright Magpie on a clear autumn day. Stepping into the MCG in front of the home crowd against the Brisbane Lions, Crisp is poised to orchestrate Collingwood's midfield with precision. With a model prediction averaging 9.4 handballs per game and a 4.8% edge in his favor, the numbers paint a picture of consistency and reliability. Playing on familiar turf only adds to his confidence and ability to find his teammates with crisp, accurate deliveries. So, when the ball is in his hands on Friday night, expect Crisp to weave through traffic, find space, and rack up those handballs, easily surpassing the 7.5 line set before him. The data speaks volumes, and Crisp is poised to deliver.
Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) Over 18.5 Disposals (-233)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jordan De Goey, the Magpies' dynamic forward-turned-midfielder, is set to shine in the upcoming clash against the Lions at the iconic MCG. De Goey's recent form is nothing short of impressive, averaging a whopping 25.2 disposals per game in his last five home appearances. His ability to find space and create scoring opportunities has been crucial, evident in his high disposal efficiency of 69.5%. Against the Lions, De Goey has historically elevated his game, averaging 16.2 disposals in their recent matchups. With a line set at 18.5, De Goey's consistent performance, coupled with his current form streaks, makes the Over a compelling bet. Expect De Goey to rack up the possessions, drive the Magpies forward, and snag a goal or two along the way.
Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Under 20.5 team_totals_q1 (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Folks, when it comes to Friday night footy at the MCG, all eyes are on the clash between the Collingwood Magpies and the Brisbane Lions. The Magpies, known for their gritty defense and strategic play, are up against the Lions who've been hungry for points on the road lately. Looking at the numbers, Collingwood has been averaging around 85 points in their last five games, while the Lions have been solid defensively, holding opponents to just 77.4 points overall. With the Magpies' home field advantage and the Lions' stingy defense on the road, the Under 20.5 for Collingwood's Q1 team total seems like a smart play. Expect a tight, low-scoring quarter as these teams battle it out under the bright lights of the Melbourne night.
That is how our model reads Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.