On Saturday 1 August 2026, Carlton Blues play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Will Hayward (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -278 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Looking at Will Hayward's recent form, it's clear he's a genuine threat in front of goal, especially when playing at home. Over his last 5 home games, Hayward has been averaging 1.4 goals per game, showing his ability to consistently hit the scoreboard. With an average of 2.8 shots on goal and 5.2 score involvements per game in his last 5 home matches, Hayward is actively involved in Carlton's forward movements, increasing his chances of snagging a goal.
Facing the Brisbane Lions, against whom he's been averaging 1 goal per game in his last 5 matchups, Hayward has a good track record. Additionally, his current hit rate of 15 goals in the last 20 home games highlights his reliability in finding the big sticks. With his recent form and historical performance against the Lions, Hayward looks primed to split the middle and bag at least one goal in this upcoming clash at Marvel Stadium.
Blake Acres (Carlton) Over 16.5 Disposals (-200)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to reliable ball magnets, Blake Acres of the Carlton Blues stands out like a shining star. His recent form has been nothing short of exceptional, hitting a streak of 4 consecutive games exceeding 16.5 disposals, showing his consistency and hunger for possession. In his last 5 home games, he's been a force to be reckoned with, averaging a solid 20 disposals per game. Facing the Brisbane Lions, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 22.6 disposals in their recent encounters, sets the stage for Acres to shine once again. With a model predicting him to hit 20 disposals and boasting an impressive overall hit streak of 8 games, betting on Acres to go Over 16.5 disposals feels like a safe bet with a touch of excitement for potential upside.
Eric Hipwood (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-179)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Eric Hipwood, the sharpshooting forward for the Brisbane Lions, is our prime target for the 'Player Goals Over/Under' market against Carlton. Despite a slight dip in his last 5 away games, averaging 0.6 goals, Hipwood has shown a strong trend of 1 goal per game overall. Facing Carlton, he has been even more lethal, bagging an average of 1.7 goals in their last 5 encounters. His current hit streak of 1 away and 3 overall, coupled with a solid 30% goal accuracy and 1.2 marks inside 50 on the road, makes him a formidable threat to split the middle at least once in this matchup. With the model predicting 0.9 goals and a 64.1% implied probability, the odds favor Hipwood snagging a goal and rewarding the Over 0.5 bet.
Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions: Over 20.5 team_totals_q1 (-105)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to the Carlton Blues taking on the Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium, the numbers paint a clear picture for an exciting first quarter. The Blues have been firing on all cylinders in their recent home games, averaging an impressive 53.2 Inside50s and 28 Shotsatgoal. Their attacking prowess has seen them notch up an average of 12.2 Target Goals and 83.4 points in their last five home fixtures. On the flip side, the Lions have struggled defensively on the road, conceding an average of 96.2 points. With the Blues' offensive firepower and the Lions' vulnerability at the back, it's no surprise that the Over 20.5 Team Totals for Carlton in the first quarter looks like a tantalizing bet. Expect the Blues to come out swinging and light up the scoreboard early on in this high-stakes clash.
Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions: Under 45.5 totals_q4 (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The clash between Carlton Blues and Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium promises to be a battle of contrasting styles. Carlton, averaging 83.4 points in their last 5 home games, faces off against a Brisbane side that has been prolific on the road, notching an impressive 102.8 points per game. However, when we delve deeper, we find that Carlton's solid defensive record at home, conceding just 79.4 points on average, could stifle Brisbane's attacking prowess. With Brisbane also tightening up their defense on the road, allowing just 72.8 points, the stage is set for a closely contested final quarter. Expect the intensity to rise, but with both teams showing defensive resilience, hitting the under 45.5 total points in the fourth quarter looks like a smart play in this matchup.
Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions: Under 45.5 totals_q2 (-119)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When looking at the second-quarter totals for the clash between the Carlton Blues and the Brisbane Lions, the smart money seems to be leaning towards the 'Under 45.5' mark. Carlton, playing at Marvel Stadium, has been averaging 83.4 points for and 79.4 points against in their last five home games. Meanwhile, Brisbane, on the road, has been putting up an impressive 102.8 points for and 96.2 points against in their away matches. However, with Carlton's solid defensive record and Brisbane's slightly lower scoring away from home, the stage is set for a tightly contested quarter where both teams might struggle to hit the high total. Expect a fierce battle on the field translating to a lower-scoring second quarter.
That is how our model reads Carlton Blues v Brisbane Lions. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.