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Model picks & player props
Western Bulldogs
VS
Brisbane Lions

Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:21AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Gabba, Brisbane
Outdoor
Sat 7 Mar 2026, 8:35AM
12
Game Picks
12
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Brisbane Lions -9.5 (Spread)
For Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions (AFL), model win probability 71.1%, fair odds 1.41, book price -110, model edge +18.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 7 Mar 2026, 8:35AM at Gabba.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Brisbane Lions
-6.5
+ 11 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Brisbane LionsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Brisbane LionsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Brisbane LionsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Brisbane LionsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Bulldogs

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Adam Treloar Western Bulldogs Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bailey Dale Western Bulldogs Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Will Ashcroft Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tim English Western Bulldogs Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ed Richards Western Bulldogs Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Western Bulldogs @ Brisbane Lions — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Tim English. Check out AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs stats and odds.</p>

Tim English (Western Bulldogs) Over 16.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the clash between the Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs at the Gabba, Tim English emerges as a prime target for the Over 16.5 disposals prop bet. English has been a consistent force on the field, averaging 15.8 disposals in his last five away games. His recent form showcases his ability to find the footy, with an impressive average of 9.6 kicks and 6.2 handballs per game away from home. Moreover, English's strong contested possessions average of 6.4 in away games indicates his ability to thrive under pressure. With a disposal efficiency of 76.6%, he's not just accumulating possessions but using them effectively. Facing the Lions, who he has historically averaged 15 disposals against, English is poised to surpass the 16.5 mark. Ride the trend and back English to shine in the midfield battle.

Ed Richards (Western Bulldogs) Over 24.5 Disposals (-108)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Ed Richards' recent form, it's clear he's poised to make a significant impact in the upcoming clash against the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba. In his last five away games, Richards has been a pivotal figure, averaging 24.8 disposals, surpassing the 24.5 line comfortably. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his 65.4% disposal efficiency and impressive 15.6 kicks per game. Moreover, his consistency against the Lions, with an average of 27 disposals in their past encounters, further solidifies his potential to thrive in this matchup. With a current hit streak on the road and a strong historical hit rate, Richards is primed to snag a win for us by surpassing the 24.5 disposals line.

Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) Over 23.5 Disposals (-123)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to bankable performers, Josh Dunkley is a name that shines bright on the footy field. Looking at his recent form, Dunkley has been an absolute workhorse, averaging 25.8 disposals in his last five home games. His ability to find the footy in traffic, with an average of 12 contested possessions in those games, sets him apart as a player who thrives under pressure. What makes Dunkley even more appealing for this bet is his consistency in disposing of the ball efficiently, boasting a solid 72.4% disposal efficiency rate at home. Against the upcoming opponents, the Western Bulldogs, Dunkley has been even more prolific, averaging 28 disposals in their last five encounters. With the Gabba crowd cheering him on, Dunkley is poised to surpass the 23.5 disposal mark with ease. Backing Dunkley to rack up the possessions is not just a bet; it's a smart investment in a player who knows how to dominate the midfield.

Tom Liberatore (Western Bulldogs) Over 23.5 Disposals (-109)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to gritty midfield battles, Tom Liberatore is a name that resonates strength and consistency. As the Western Bulldogs hit the road to face the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Liberatore's recent form stands out. Over his last five away games, he's been a disposal machine, averaging 23.4 touches per game. With his knack for finding the footy in contested situations (10.8 avg contested possessions), coupled with a solid disposal efficiency of 66.7%, Liberatore is poised to thrive in this matchup. Facing the Lions, whom he's historically tallied 24.8 disposals against, Liberatore's recent numbers suggest he's primed to exceed the 23.5 disposals line. Backing Liberatore to rack up the possessions seems like a smart play given his current form and track record in similar contests.

Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to AFL betting, it's all about dissecting the numbers and trends to uncover value. Looking at Lachie Neale's recent form, the data paints a clear picture for his upcoming clash at the Gabba against the Western Bulldogs. Neale's L5 home average sits at a solid 26.8 disposals, just under the bookie's line of 27.5. His recent trend against the Bulldogs also suggests he may fall short, with a L5 vs. Opponent Disposals Avg of 24. Moreover, his overall L5 disposals average of 29 is still slightly under the line. Neale's efficiency and impact are undeniable, but the numbers hint at a slightly quieter game for him this time around. With a model prediction of 26.6, indicating a 2.6% edge to the under, backing Neale to stay under 27.5 disposals could be a savvy move for this matchup.

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) Over 22.5 Disposals (-109)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to shine in the disposals department, Darcy Wilmot of the Brisbane Lions stands out like a shining star under the Gabba lights. Over his last five home games, Wilmot has been a midfield maestro, averaging a stellar 23 disposals per game. His recent form has been red hot, with an impressive disposal efficiency of 77.7% and an average of 16 kicks, 7 handballs, and 7 intercepts. Facing the Western Bulldogs, a team he has historically dominated with an average of 17 disposals, Wilmot is poised to maintain his streak. With a current hit streak of 3 home games and a hit rate of 3 out of 3, all signs point to Wilmot snagging over 22.5 disposals and continuing his midfield mastery on his home turf.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
1
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
07 Mar 26 Head to Head Brisbane Lions ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at Gabba. The model has generated 12 game picks and 12 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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