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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jarrod Berry is Under 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +18.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 3:00PM UTC
AFL

Jarrod Berry

Brisbane Lions

+18.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 20.5 -114 (1.88)
+18.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers
Ninja Stadium, Hobart, TAS · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.9%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+18.7%
Predicted Value
17.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.9%53.2%1.39+18.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) Under 20.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jarrod Berry hitting the under on 20.5 disposals in the upcoming clash against the Richmond Tigers, the numbers paint a clear picture. Over his last five away games, Berry has averaged 18.2 disposals, falling below the 20.5 line. His recent form is solid but not quite at the level required to consistently surpass that mark. With an average of 6 contested possessions and 11.8 kicks in away games, Berry's stats indicate a player who contributes but may not dominate possession-wise. Facing Richmond, where his average disposals drop to 16.5, the signs point to a tough outing. Berry's recent hit rate of 5/5 for staying under 20.5 disposals further supports the rationale for expecting him to fall short in this game. Bet wisely on Berry to stay under the line in this one.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 17.5
17.2avg disposals L5
Home17.8vs Hawthorn16.8Season best30
O 15.570%
O 16.550%
O 17.550%
O 18.530%
O 19.520%
O 20.510%
Game log vs line (O 17.5)avg 18.6 · hi 27 · lo 3
1824172231619272020

Jarrod Berry has gone over 17.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.2 disposals, best 30).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 20.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jarrod Berry is Under 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 14 June at Ninja Stadium, Hobart. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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