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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jarrod Berry is Under 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 53%, edge +18.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 7:01PM UTC
AFL

Jarrod Berry

Brisbane Lions

+18.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 20.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
+18.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers
Ninja Stadium, Hobart, TAS · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
17.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.9% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +18.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.9%53.2%1.39+18.7%

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AI Analysis

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Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) Under 20.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jarrod Berry hitting the under on 20.5 disposals in the upcoming clash against the Richmond Tigers, the numbers paint a clear picture. Over his last five away games, Berry has averaged 18.2 disposals, falling below the 20.5 line. His recent form is solid but not quite at the level required to consistently surpass that mark. With an average of 6 contested possessions and 11.8 kicks in away games, Berry's stats indicate a player who contributes but may not dominate possession-wise. Facing Richmond, where his average disposals drop to 16.5, the signs point to a tough outing. Berry's recent hit rate of 5/5 for staying under 20.5 disposals further supports the rationale for expecting him to fall short in this game. Bet wisely on Berry to stay under the line in this one.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jarrod Berry averaged 20.0 disposals, 0.2 goals and 6.2 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

20.0
Disposals
0.2
Goals
6.2
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jarrod Berry recorded 20 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans201103
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats20024
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS27063
7 Sep 24Carlton19083
24 Aug 24Essendon16062
17 Aug 24Collingwood3020
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS22084
4 Aug 24St Kilda17071
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS240103
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans18072
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 20.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jarrod Berry is Under 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 14 June at Ninja Stadium, Hobart. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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