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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jarrod Berry is Under 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +18.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:54AM UTC
AFL

Jarrod Berry

Brisbane Lions

+18.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 20.5 -114 (1.88)
+18.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers
Ninja Stadium, Hobart, TAS · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
71.9%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+18.7%
Predicted Value
17.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.9%53.2%1.39+18.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) Under 20.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jarrod Berry hitting the under on 20.5 disposals in the upcoming clash against the Richmond Tigers, the numbers paint a clear picture. Over his last five away games, Berry has averaged 18.2 disposals, falling below the 20.5 line. His recent form is solid but not quite at the level required to consistently surpass that mark. With an average of 6 contested possessions and 11.8 kicks in away games, Berry's stats indicate a player who contributes but may not dominate possession-wise. Facing Richmond, where his average disposals drop to 16.5, the signs point to a tough outing. Berry's recent hit rate of 5/5 for staying under 20.5 disposals further supports the rationale for expecting him to fall short in this game. Bet wisely on Berry to stay under the line in this one.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 16.5
16.6avg disposals L5
Away15.6vs West Coast Eagles18.3Season best30
O 14.580%
O 15.580%
O 16.560%
O 17.560%
O 18.540%
O 19.530%
Game log vs line (O 16.5)avg 18.6 · hi 27 · lo 3
1824172231619272020

Jarrod Berry has gone over 16.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 16.6 disposals, best 30).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 20.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
28 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 16.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jarrod Berry (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jarrod Berry is Under 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 14 June at Ninja Stadium, Hobart. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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