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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Draper is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 80%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +18.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:44AM UTC
AFL

Sam Draper

Brisbane Lions

+18.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -161 (1.62)
+18.0% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Barossa Park, Lyndoch, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 2:35AM
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Model Probability
79.7%
Implied Probability
61.7%
Model Edge
+18.0%
Predicted Value
1.1 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals79.7%—61.7%1.25+18.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Sam Draper (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-161)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Draper, the powerhouse from Brisbane Lions, is poised to make a significant impact in the upcoming clash against North Melbourne Kangaroos. Despite averaging 0.4 goals in his last five away games, Draper's recent form indicates a hunger for goals with an average of 1.8 shots at goal. His precision in front of the big sticks has been solid at 15.0%, suggesting he's honing in on goal-scoring opportunities. With a solid involvement in the attacking plays, averaging 4.4 score involvements, Draper is primed to snag a goal in this matchup. Facing an opponent where he's previously averaged 0.3 goals, the odds are in favor of Draper splitting the middle and surpassing the 0.5 goal line. Betting on Draper to go over 0.5 goals seems like a smart wager for this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 0.5
0.8avg goals L5
Away0.2vs West Coast Eagles0.5Season best3
O 0.560%
O 1.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.9 · hi 3 · lo 0
0010111311

Sam Draper has gone over 0.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.8 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 0.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT
28 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -270 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Sam Draper (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Draper is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.0% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 11 April at Barossa Park, Lyndoch. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.