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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Draper is Over 2.5 on Clearances.
On Clearances, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 71%, implied 80%, edge +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 1:46PM UTC
AFL

Sam Draper

Brisbane Lions

+4.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Clearances Over 2.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+4.1% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 21 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
84 in 100
Predicted
4.3 Clearances
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 84.1% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +4.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Clearances84.1%70.5%80.0%1.42+4.1%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Draper (Brisbane Lions) Over 2.5 player_clearances_over (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk about why Sam Draper is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between the Brisbane Lions and the Collingwood Magpies at the iconic MCG. When it comes to making his mark in the midfield battleground, Draper is no stranger to the action. With a model-predicted average of 4.3 clearances per game and a rock-solid hit rate, he's setting the bar high. Facing off against Collingwood on their home turf, Draper will be hungry to assert his dominance and lead the Lions to victory. The stats don't lie – the data suggests an 80.0% likelihood of Draper surpassing the 2.5 clearance line, making this a tantalizing prospect for punters looking to back his prowess in the engine room. So, if you're keen on riding the wave of Draper's midfield magic, backing him to hit Over 2.5 clearances could be a savvy play for this showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Sam Draper averaged 11.2 disposals, 0.7 goals and 3.1 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

11.2
Disposals
0.7
Goals
3.1
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Sam Draper recorded 9 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions9121
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans11132
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS11355
4 Aug 24Fremantle9145
27 Jul 24St Kilda9134
19 Jul 24Adelaide Crows14151
13 Jul 24Melbourne20041
5 Jul 24Collingwood15150
29 Jun 24Geelong Cats9012
23 Jun 24West Coast Eagles17043
Quick answers:How many disposals does Sam Draper average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Clearances 2.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Sam Draper (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Draper is Over 2.5 on Clearances. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies on Friday 21 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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