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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Draper is Over 1.5 on Tackles.
On Tackles, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 70%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:16PM UTC
AFL

Sam Draper

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Sam Draper (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Tackles Over 1.5 that pays $143 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Tackles Over 1.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
2.1 Tackles
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.8% · before adjusting for past results 72.8% · the book's price implies 69.9% · gap -9.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Tackles72.8%60.8%69.9%1.64+2.9%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Sam Draper Over 1.5 Tackles (-233)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds are offering a good chance for Sam Draper to get over 1.5 tackles in this game against the Brisbane Lions. Our numbers show that Draper has been making more tackles than usual lately, with a strong performance rating of 2 for freeing against opponents. He usually doesn't go for many tackles, but he has been stepping up his game, which makes this bet look pretty promising. One little worry is how close the teams are in terms of player stats; Draper's typical tackle numbers are on the rise, but it's still possible he could have a quieter day. Still, given his recent form and the way he's been playing at the MCG, this bet feels like a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Sam Draper averaged 11.2 disposals, 0.7 goals and 3.1 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

11.2
Disposals
0.7
Goals
3.1
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Sam Draper has cleared 9.5 disposals in 30% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.530%
o10.520%
o11.520%
o12.520%
o13.520%

Home / away and opponent splits

Sam Draper is averaging 8.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

8.8
Disp · Overall
0.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Sam Draper recorded 9 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions9121
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans11132
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS11355
4 Aug 24Fremantle9145
27 Jul 24St Kilda9134
19 Jul 24Adelaide Crows14151
13 Jul 24Melbourne20041
5 Jul 24Collingwood15150
29 Jun 24Geelong Cats9012
23 Jun 24West Coast Eagles17043
Quick answers:How many disposals does Sam Draper average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Tackles 1.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Clearances 2.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Clearances 2.5 Over -417 ✓ HIT
21 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Clearances — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals — — — Pending
28 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam Draper (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Draper is Over 1.5 on Tackles. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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