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AFL

Sam Draper

Brisbane Lions

+11.2% Edge
Latest Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -217 (1.46)
+11.2% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Sat 28 Mar, 1:35AM
Model Probability
79.7%
Implied Probability
68.5%
Model Edge
+11.2%
Predicted Value
1.1 Goals

AI Analysis

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Sam Draper (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Sam Draper hitting the scoreboard, the numbers paint an enticing picture. Despite averaging 0.6 goals in his last five away games, a closer look reveals his recent form against St Kilda includes bagging 1 goal per game. Draper's ability to impact the game is evident in his 5 score involvements per match, showing he's not just a goal-sneak but a player who influences the Lions' attacking moves. With a shots-at-goal average of 2 and a solid goal accuracy of 35%, Draper is poised to split the middle and snag at least one major against the Saints. The data, along with his knack for finding the big sticks, makes betting on him to score over 0.5 goals a smart play for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (2 picks) 100.0% (2/2)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -204 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Sam Draper (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 2 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (2/2). The latest model pick for Sam Draper is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 28 March at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.