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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Dunkley is Over 9.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 74%, the price says 55%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 4:20AM UTC
AFL

Josh Dunkley

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Kicks Over 9.5 that pays $181 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 9.5 -123 (1.81) · $100→$181
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
12.1 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 74.4% · the book's price implies 55.2% · gap +19.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks74.4%55.2%1.34+19.2%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Josh Dunkley Over 9.5 Kicks (-123)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle and Brisbane Lions are both in great form, making this game exciting. Brisbane has been scoring impressively, averaging nearly 50 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. Meanwhile, Fremantle has also been strong, winning 7 of their last 10 games. With both teams playing at a high level, it should be a competitive match. We're picking Josh Dunkley to get over 9.5 kicks because he's been playing well lately. There's a solid chance he can reach this number, especially with how often he gets involved in the game. The only worry is how tight the game might be, which could affect the number of kicks he gets. But overall, it feels like a good bet to make.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Josh Dunkley's lines for Sat 26 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Kicks 9.5

Josh Dunkley's kicks line is 9.5.

Disposals 18.5

Josh Dunkley's disposals line is 18.5.

Disposals 17.5

Josh Dunkley's disposals line is 17.5.

Disposals 20.5

Josh Dunkley's disposals line is 20.5.

Disposals 19.5

Josh Dunkley's disposals line is 19.5.

Season averages (2024)

Josh Dunkley averaged 25.3 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.6 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

25.3
Disposals
0.2
Goals
5.6
Marks
6.2
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Josh Dunkley has cleared 15.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o15.5100%
o16.590%
o18.590%
o19.580%
o21.570%
o22.560%
o24.530%
o26.520%
o27.510%
o29.50%
o30.50%
o32.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Josh Dunkley is averaging 23.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

23.2
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Josh Dunkley recorded 21 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans210811
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats28064
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS23054
7 Sep 24Carlton15015
24 Aug 24Essendon28048
17 Aug 24Collingwood27052
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS23055
4 Aug 24St Kilda20055
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS31175
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans15016
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Clearances 2.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Fantasy 84.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Fantasy 79.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Fantasy Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Kicks Pending

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About This Player

Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Dunkley is Over 9.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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