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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Dunkley is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +14.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
AFL

Josh Dunkley

Brisbane Lions

+14.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -159 (1.63)
+14.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
75.8%
Implied Probability
61.3%
Model Edge
+14.4%
Predicted Value
25.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.8%—61.3%1.32+14.4%

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AI Analysis

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Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) Over 21.5 Disposals (-159)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Josh Dunkley is primed to dominate the disposal count against Melbourne. His recent form is red hot, averaging 18.8 disposals in his last five away games. He's not just a quantity player; his disposal efficiency sits at a respectable 63.8%. Dunkley's ability to find space and move the ball effectively is evident in his 145.2 meters gained per game. Facing Melbourne, he has historically stepped up, averaging a whopping 28 disposals in their past encounters. With a model prediction of 25 disposals and a solid edge of 14.4%, Dunkley's Over 21.5 disposal line looks like a steal. Expect him to hunt possessions aggressively and dictate play at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
23.1avg disposals recent
Season best35
Disposals last 10avg 23.1 · hi 31 · lo 15
15312023272815232821

Josh Dunkley has a disposals high of 35 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 21.5 Over -159 ✗ MISS
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 20.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 19.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Dunkley is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 19 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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