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AFL

Darcy Fort

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Darcy Fort (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: over 8.5 disposals that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
11.1 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 71.9% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +18.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Darcy Fort
over 8.5 disposals
Disposals Over 8.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
HIGHWins about 72 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Fort is Over 8.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 72%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:06PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.9%—53.2%1.39+18.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Darcy Fort Over 8.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Darcy Fort to get over 8.5 disposals tonight, he needs to get his hands on the ball a bunch. Fremantle tends to get the ball inside their attacking zone more often than Brisbane does, which could give Fort more chances to rack up those disposals. Plus, Fremantle has been losing contested ball situations, meaning there could be more opportunities for him to get involved. However, the risk is that Brisbane's midfield has been pretty strong, winning contested possessions more consistently. If they can dominate in those tight spots, it might limit Fort's chances. Still, given Fremantle's home advantage and their style of play, it seems likely that Fort will hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Fort averaged 11.0 disposals, 0.3 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 3 games in 2024.

11.0
Disposals
0.3
Goals
2.3
Marks
3.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Darcy Fort has cleared 9.5 disposals in 50% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.550%
o10.540%
o11.50%
o12.50%
o13.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Darcy Fort is averaging 9.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

9.2
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Darcy Fort recorded 12 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans12023
25 Apr 24GWS GIANTS11136
28 Mar 24Collingwood10022
6 Aug 23Fremantle12003
29 Jun 23Richmond3001
23 Jun 23St Kilda2000
16 Jun 23Sydney Swans8013
15 Apr 23North Melbourne13163
30 Mar 23Western Bulldogs9030
24 Mar 23Melbourne12021
Quick answers:How many disposals does Darcy Fort average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Fort (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Fort is Over 8.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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