Darcy Fort (Brisbane Lions) Over 8.5 Disposals (-118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Darcy Fort looks well-placed to clear this 8.5-disposal line with meaningful room to spare. The model has him projecting at 11.1 disposals — a 2.6-touch buffer above the line — and with a 17.9% edge against the implied 54.1% probability baked into the $1.85, there's genuine value here. Fort's L5 away average sits at 9.0 disposals, and crucially against Fremantle specifically he's averaged 11.0 away and 10.2 overall across his last five matchups with them — both comfortably over the line. He's hit this mark in three of his last four away games and is riding a three-game overall streak, going 3/3 in his most recent outings. His contested possession work (5.2 away average) and 144.6 metres gained suggest he's genuinely involved rather than padding stats. The line feels a touch soft given the opponent-specific history. A reasonable play at the current price.