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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Fort is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 67%, implied 53%, edge +14.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 4:34PM UTC
AFL

Darcy Fort

Brisbane Lions

+14.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
+14.2% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
67 in 100
Predicted
11.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 67.4% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +14.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals67.4%—53.2%1.48+14.2%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Fort (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Darcy Fort is poised to exceed 9.5 disposals against Geelong Cats based on his recent form. With a solid L5 average of 10.4 disposals in away games and an impressive L5 average of 11.8 overall, Fort consistently meets or surpasses the proposed line. His efficiency, averaging 56.3%, and previous performances against Geelong (12.7 disposals L5 vs Opponent) further support this bet. Despite a slight dip in away contested possessions and uncontested possessions, Fort's ability to gain meters (129.8 L5) and maintain turnover control makes him a reliable choice for this over/under proposition. The model's favorable prediction, along with his consistent hit rates, indicate a high probability of Fort delivering on this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Fort averaged 11.0 disposals, 0.3 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 3 games in 2024.

11.0
Disposals
0.3
Goals
2.3
Marks
3.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Darcy Fort recorded 12 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans12023
25 Apr 24GWS GIANTS11136
28 Mar 24Collingwood10022
6 Aug 23Fremantle12003
29 Jun 23Richmond3001
23 Jun 23St Kilda2000
16 Jun 23Sydney Swans8013
15 Apr 23North Melbourne13163
30 Mar 23Western Bulldogs9030
24 Mar 23Melbourne12021
Quick answers:How many disposals does Darcy Fort average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Darcy Fort (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Fort is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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