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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Fort is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 67%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +14.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:54AM UTC
AFL

Darcy Fort

Brisbane Lions

+14.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -114 (1.88)
+14.2% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
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Model Probability
67.4%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+14.2%
Predicted Value
11.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals67.4%—53.2%1.48+14.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Fort (Brisbane Lions) Over 9.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Darcy Fort is poised to exceed 9.5 disposals against Geelong Cats based on his recent form. With a solid L5 average of 10.4 disposals in away games and an impressive L5 average of 11.8 overall, Fort consistently meets or surpasses the proposed line. His efficiency, averaging 56.3%, and previous performances against Geelong (12.7 disposals L5 vs Opponent) further support this bet. Despite a slight dip in away contested possessions and uncontested possessions, Fort's ability to gain meters (129.8 L5) and maintain turnover control makes him a reliable choice for this over/under proposition. The model's favorable prediction, along with his consistent hit rates, indicate a high probability of Fort delivering on this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 10.5
11avg disposals L5
Away10.6vs West Coast Eagles12Season best19
O 9.580%
O 10.570%
O 11.560%
O 12.520%
O 13.520%
O 14.520%
Game log vs line (O 10.5)avg 9.2 · hi 13 · lo 2
1291382312101112

Darcy Fort has gone over 10.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 11 disposals, best 19).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Darcy Fort (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Fort is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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