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Brisbane Lions
VS
St Kilda Saints

Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 24, 2:20AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 1:35AM
2
Game Picks
18
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 186.5 (Total Points)
For Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints (AFL), model win probability 72.5%, fair odds 1.38, book price -112, model edge +19.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 28 Mar 2026, 1:35AM at Marvel Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
186.5
+ 1 more market
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🔒

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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St Kilda SaintsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Saints

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Will Ashcroft Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Lachie Neale Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Rowan Marshall St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Lincoln McCarthy Brisbane Lions Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning bets for St Kilda Saints playing Brisbane Lions. Includes analysis on key players like Josh Dunkley. Analysis includes AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, St Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions stats and odds.</p>

Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) Over 19.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to dominate the disposal count, Josh Dunkley stands out like a beacon in the night sky. His recent form on the road has been nothing short of stellar, averaging a whopping 22.2 disposals over the last five away games. Facing St Kilda, a team he's historically tormented with an average of 23.3 disposals in their previous encounters, Dunkley seems poised to feast once more. With his exceptional disposal efficiency at 67.8% and a knack for gaining valuable meters (207.8 average), Dunkley is a midfield maestro capable of shredding opposition defenses. Add in his consistent contested possessions (8.4 average) and reliable uncontested possessions (12.8 average), and it's clear why the Over 19.5 disposals line seems like a generous offering. Dunkley's recent hot streak, hitting 18 out of 20 in away games, and a solid overall hit rate of 10/13 further bolster the case for a big night out at Marvel Stadium.

Cam Rayner (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to putting the ball through the big sticks, Cam Rayner has been on fire lately. In his last five away games, he's been averaging a tidy 1.8 goals per match. Facing off against St Kilda, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 2 goals in their last five encounters, Rayner seems poised to continue his scoring spree. What's even more impressive is his goal accuracy, sitting at a solid 60.3% in away games. With an excellent average of 3.4 shots at goal, 4.2 inside 50s, and 5.2 score involvements, Rayner is not just getting opportunities; he's capitalizing on them. Plus, with a current 12-game hit streak in away matches and a perfect 8/8 hit rate overall, Rayner's consistency is undeniable. Backing him to snag at least one goal in this matchup feels like a smart bet with a high probability of hitting.

Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) Over 11.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable midfield performers, Rowan Marshall stands out like a beacon in the footy landscape. The St Kilda big man has been a pillar of consistency, averaging a cool 16.4 disposals in his last five home games, including a solid 17 against the upcoming visitors, the Brisbane Lions. Marshall's ability to cover the ground efficiently with an impressive 201.2 meters gained per game makes him a crucial link in the Saints' chain. With a recent hit streak of 11 straight games hitting the over on disposals, Marshall is in top form. Facing the Lions at Marvel Stadium, where he musters an average of 16.4 disposals per game, the stage is set for him to shine once more. Backing Marshall to surpass 11.5 disposals seems a prudent move, given his recent performances and his pivotal role in the Saints' midfield battle.

Lincoln McCarthy (Brisbane Lions) Over 10.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Lincoln McCarthy is poised to make a significant impact in the upcoming clash against St Kilda. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging 11 disposals, surpassing the proposed line of 10.5. With a recent contested possessions average of 6 and an impressive disposal efficiency of 64.2%, McCarthy is not only a ball magnet but also a precise distributor. His ability to cover ground is evident, racking up an average of 216.4 meters gained per game. Facing St Kilda, McCarthy has historically elevated his game, with an average of 12 disposals in their recent encounters. Additionally, boasting a solid hit rate of 7/9 in his last games, McCarthy is in fine form. Expect him to continue this trend and comfortably exceed the 10.5 disposal line, making him a compelling Over bet for this showdown.

Liam Ryan (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the clash between St Kilda Saints and Brisbane Lions, all eyes are on Liam Ryan to light up Marvel Stadium. Ryan has been on a scoring spree lately, averaging 1.4 goals per game in his last five home matches. His goal accuracy sits at an impressive 46.7%, showcasing his ability to split the big sticks consistently. With 1.8 shots at goal on average and a recent scoring involvement rate of 4.8, Ryan is in prime form to snag a goal against the Lions, especially considering his history of averaging 2 goals against this opponent in their previous encounters. Backing Ryan to score over 0.5 goals in this matchup looks like a solid bet with his current form and scoring trends pointing towards a high likelihood of him hitting the scoreboard once again.

Cooper Sharman (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-625)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Listen up, footy punters! When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between St Kilda Saints and Brisbane Lions, Cooper Sharman is the man to watch. Sharman has been on fire at home, averaging a solid 1.6 goals over his last five games. With a sharp goal accuracy of 56.7% and actively involved in scoring opportunities with 4.8 score involvements per game, he's a potent threat inside 50. Facing off against Brisbane, a team he's historically found the back of the net against, averaging 0.2 goals per game, Sharman is primed to capitalize on his recent form. With a line set at just 0.5 goals, backing Sharman to go over is a smart play given his recent goal-scoring prowess and efficiency. This is one bet that looks like a sure thing for those seeking a footy flutter with a high probability of success.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
28 Mar 26 Total Points Under 186.5 ✗ MISS
28 Mar 26 Head to Head St Kilda Saints ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 28 March 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 2 game picks and 18 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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