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Model picks & player props
Brisbane Lions
VS
St Kilda Saints

Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 13, 5:36AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 1:35AM
2
Game markets graded
18
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 186.5 (Total Points)
The model graded 20 markets for Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $189 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 72.5%, fair odds 1.38, book price -112, model edge +19.5%. Tip-off Sat 28 Mar 2026, 1:35AM at Marvel Stadium.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Points
Under
186.5
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St Kilda SaintsHead to HeadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Saints

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Will Ashcroft Brisbane Lions Disposals
Lachie Neale Brisbane Lions Disposals
Rowan Marshall St Kilda Disposals
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera St Kilda Disposals
Lincoln McCarthy Brisbane Lions Goals

+ 18 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Brisbane Lions at St Kilda Saints — 2 on the game itself and 18 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
18
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints — recent results

St Kilda Saints have won 0 of their last 0 games; Brisbane Lions have won 4 of their last 5.

Brisbane Lions — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W125–58HAWHome
L78–154CARLAway
W126–67PORTHome
W123–101GEELAway
W126–83SYDHome

Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints — model preview

Unlock potential winning bets for St Kilda Saints playing Brisbane Lions. Includes analysis on key players like Josh Dunkley. Analysis includes AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, St Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions stats and odds.

Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) Over 19.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to dominate the disposal count, Josh Dunkley stands out like a beacon in the night sky. His recent form on the road has been nothing short of stellar, averaging a whopping 22.2 disposals over the last five away games. Facing St Kilda, a team he's historically tormented with an average of 23.3 disposals in their previous encounters, Dunkley seems poised to feast once more. With his exceptional disposal efficiency at 67.8% and a knack for gaining valuable meters (207.8 average), Dunkley is a midfield maestro capable of shredding opposition defenses. Add in his consistent contested possessions (8.4 average) and reliable uncontested possessions (12.8 average), and it's clear why the Over 19.5 disposals line seems like a generous offering. Dunkley's recent hot streak, hitting 18 out of 20 in away games, and a solid overall hit rate of 10/13 further bolster the case for a big night out at Marvel Stadium.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Lions vs Saints, or as Saints vs Lions. The most recent game between them was Saturday 28 March 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 2 game picks and 18 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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