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Model picks & player props
Brisbane Lions
VS
Fremantle Dockers

Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 20, 2:51AM UTC

Our model graded 37 markets for Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers and backs Fremantle Dockers 9.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $190.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep 2026, 4:30AM
4
Game markets graded
33
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Fremantle Dockers 9.5 Spread -111

The model graded 37 markets for Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 26 Sep 2026, 4:30AM at MCG.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win59.9%
The price says52.6%
Best price-111
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Fremantle Dockers 9.5 Lean60% chance -111
Spread Q4 Members only Lean55% chance Members
Spread Q3 Members only Lean55% chance Members
Spread Q2 Members only Lean55% chance Members
Kicks × 6 props Highup to 82% Members
Disposals × 16 props Highup to 82% Members
Goals × 7 props Highup to 88% Members
Handballs × 4 props Highup to 80% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
How they've been scoring this season
Brisbane LionsFremantle Dockers
Won-lost14-610-4
Points scored per game111.192.7
Points allowed per game93.876.9
On the road / at home6-3 away6-1 at home
Last 5 gamesWWWLWWLLWW
Their games average 187.2 total points this season.
From the 20 Brisbane Lions and 14 Fremantle Dockers games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 12 bookmakers compared
Winner
Brisbane Lions1.70-143Betfair Exchange
Dockers2.42+142Betfair Exchange

Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers odds by bookmaker

12 books · best price in green
BookBrisbane Lions winDockers win
Betfair Exchange1.70-1432.42+142
Betr1.65-1542.25+125
BetRight1.65-1542.24+124
Dabble1.62-1612.30+130
Ladbrokes1.62-1612.30+130
Neds1.62-1612.30+130
PointsBet1.60-1672.30+130
Polymarket1.70-1442.44+144
Sportsbet1.61-1642.32+132
TAB1.58-1722.40+140
TABtouch1.62-1612.30+130
Unibet1.61-1642.25+125

Since the market opened: Dockers to win opened 2.30, best now 2.44 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Fremantle Dockers
+9.5
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Fremantle DockersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersSpread Q4The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersSpread Q3The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Fremantle DockersSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward Fremantle Dockers on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward Fremantle Dockers
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Betfair Ex Au
on Fremantle Dockers
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Dockers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 20 Sep

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Picks: Stat-Based Insights

On September 26, 2026 our model has run Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Fremantle Dockers +9.5 Spread (-111), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Fremantle Dockers +9.5 Spread (-111)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been really strong in the final quarter lately, scoring an average of 29.2 points in their last 12 matches. This is impressive compared to their lower scores in earlier quarters. They seem to find their rhythm when it matters most, which gives them a fighting chance against the Brisbane Lions. Brisbane has been great too, winning 9 of their last 10 games. However, the final spread of 9.5 points feels a bit high, especially with how close our numbers say this matchup could be. The Lions have a solid record, but Fremantle's late-game scoring might help them keep it tight.

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Fremantle Dockers +2.5 Spread Q2 (-118)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a roll, winning 7 of their last 10 games and outscoring their opponents by nearly 29 points on average over their last 12 matches. They've also been strong early in games, scoring an average of almost 45 points before half-time. This suggests they come out firing, which is key for this bet. Brisbane Lions are no slouches either, winning 9 of their last 10 and outscoring their rivals by over 31 points in the same stretch. With both teams performing well, this match feels tight, but Fremantle's early game strength gives them a good shot at covering the spread. The biggest risk is that both teams are quite evenly matched, making it tough to predict.

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Fremantle Dockers +2.5 Spread Q3 (-118)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been really solid lately, winning seven of their last ten games and coming out 28.7 points ahead on average in their recent matches. They've also been scoring well before half-time, averaging 44.6 points in their last twelve. That's impressive and shows they can keep up the pace. Brisbane Lions are no slouches either, winning nine of their last ten, but this matchup looks tight. The fact that Fremantle is at home gives them a slight boost, but the teams are closely matched overall. With our numbers showing this game is nearly even, betting on Fremantle +2.5 seems like a smart move, even if both teams are playing well.

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Josh Dunkley Over 20.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a solid run, winning 7 of their last 10 games, but they face a tough challenge against the Brisbane Lions, who have won 9 of their last 10. Both teams are playing well, and Brisbane has been particularly strong, coming out ahead by an average of 31.3 points in their last 12 matches. This matchup is close, which is something to keep in mind. Josh Dunkley has been performing consistently, and we think he can get over 20.5 disposals in this game. He has averaged a solid number before half-time, and with both teams eager to push forward, there should be plenty of chances for him to rack up those disposals. Just remember, with both teams so evenly matched, nothing is guaranteed.

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Oscar McDonald Over 10.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Oscar McDonald to go over 10.5 disposals tonight, he just needs to get his hands on the ball a few more times than usual. Fremantle has been playing strong lately, winning 7 of their last 10 matches, and they often rack up points early, averaging almost 45 points before half-time in their last 12 games. The Brisbane Lions are no slouches either, having won 9 of their last 10 and scoring 50 points before half-time on average. However, McDonald has a solid chance to hit that mark given Fremantle's recent performance. The biggest risk here is how closely matched these two teams are right now, which could make it tougher for him to find the ball.

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Jaspa Fletcher Over 16.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle's strong form means they will put pressure on Brisbane, especially with their solid defense. However, Brisbane has been impressive too, winning 9 of their last 10 matches and scoring big points right from the start. Jaspa Fletcher has been getting plenty of touches lately, and with both teams likely to play a fast-paced game, he should rack up over 16.5 disposals. The risk here is how closely matched these teams are, so it could be a tight game. Still, with Brisbane's ability to score early and often, Fletcher should have plenty of opportunities. Given how both teams play, this bet has a good chance of hitting.

That is the full board for this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 20 Sep

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Same Game Multi picks Key Insights: Smart Betting Angles

On Sunday 20 September 2026, Fremantle Dockers play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) Over 12.5 Disposals, priced at -714 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) Over 12.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Cam Rayner (Brisbane Lions) Over 10.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Cam Rayner (Brisbane Lions) Over 10.5 Disposals. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 12.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 12.5 Disposals. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Fremantle Dockers v Brisbane Lions. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Josh Dunkley Brisbane Lions Kicks
Jaspa Fletcher Brisbane Lions Disposals
Josh Dunkley Brisbane Lions Disposals
Oscar McDonald Fremantle Disposals
Noah Answerth Brisbane Lions Disposals

+ 33 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

4 markets live
LineFremantle Dockers +9.59.5 -111
60%cover %
-6.0Fremantle Dockers margin (L5)
Model pickFremantle Dockers +9.5Fremantle Dockers PF/G84.0Brisbane Lions PF/G122.4

Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers on Sep 26 - Line: the model's pick is Fremantle Dockers +9.5 at -111, a 60% cover % (LEAN). Over their last five games Fremantle Dockers average 84.0 points and Brisbane Lions 122.4.

Line Q2Fremantle Dockers +2.52.5 -118
55%cover %
-6.0Fremantle Dockers margin (L5)
Model pickFremantle Dockers +2.5Fremantle Dockers PF/G84.0Brisbane Lions PF/G122.4

Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers on Sep 26 - Line Q2: the model's pick is Fremantle Dockers +2.5 at -118, a 55% cover % (LEAN). Over their last five games Fremantle Dockers average 84.0 points and Brisbane Lions 122.4.

Line Q3Fremantle Dockers +2.52.5 -118
55%cover %
-6.0Fremantle Dockers margin (L5)
Model pickFremantle Dockers +2.5Fremantle Dockers PF/G84.0Brisbane Lions PF/G122.4

Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers on Sep 26 - Line Q3: the model's pick is Fremantle Dockers +2.5 at -118, a 55% cover % (LEAN). Over their last five games Fremantle Dockers average 84.0 points and Brisbane Lions 122.4.

Line Q4Fremantle Dockers +2.52.5 -118
55%cover %
-6.0Fremantle Dockers margin (L5)
Model pickFremantle Dockers +2.5Fremantle Dockers PF/G84.0Brisbane Lions PF/G122.4

Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers on Sep 26 - Line Q4: the model's pick is Fremantle Dockers +2.5 at -118, a 55% cover % (LEAN). Over their last five games Fremantle Dockers average 84.0 points and Brisbane Lions 122.4.

Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers — what the model found

Our model graded 37 betting markets for Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers — 4 on the game itself and 33 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded
33
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 37 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 36 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers — recent results

Fremantle Dockers have won 0 of their last 0 games; Brisbane Lions have won 4 of their last 5.

Brisbane Lions — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W144–91ADELHome
L88–141SYDAway
W159–96COLLAway
W95–53SUNSHome
W125–58HAWHome

Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers — where the money went

Since betting opened on Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers, the market has moved toward Fremantle Dockers across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Fremantle Dockers▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — Brisbane Lions▼ Money drifted off this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers — model preview

Fremantle Dockers v Brisbane Lions, 20 September 2026. Top of the list: Jordan Clark (Fremantle) Over 11.5 player_kicks_over. Here is why, in plain English.

On September 26, 2026 our model has run Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Fremantle Dockers +9.5 Spread (-111), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Lions vs Dockers, or as Dockers vs Lions. The next scheduled game is Saturday 26 September 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 4 game picks and 33 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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