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Model picks & player props
Brisbane Lions
VS
North Melbourne Kangaroos

Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 3:54PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Barossa Park, Lyndoch
Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 2:35AM
3
Game markets graded
18
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Moneyline)
The model graded 21 markets for Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $580 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 34.1%, fair odds 2.93, book price +480, model edge +16.9%. Tip-off Sat 11 Apr 2026, 2:35AM at Barossa Park.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
North Melbourne Kangaroos
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
North Melbourne KangaroosHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Kangaroos

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Sam Draper Brisbane Lions Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Darling North Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cameron Zurhaar North Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Hugh McCluggage Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nick Larkey North Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos — what the model found

Our model graded 21 betting markets for Brisbane Lions at North Melbourne Kangaroos — 3 on the game itself and 18 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded
18
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 21 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 20 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos — recent results

North Melbourne Kangaroos have won 0 of their last 0 games; Brisbane Lions have won 4 of their last 5.

Brisbane Lions — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W125–58HAWHome
L78–154CARLAway
W126–67PORTHome
W123–101GEELAway
W126–83SYDHome

Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos — model preview

Latest AFL betting preview: North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Brisbane Lions. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Harry Sheezel. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Brisbane Lions stats and odds.

Harry Sheezel (North Melbourne) Over 28.5 Disposals (-154)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable midfield performances, Harry Sheezel is the linchpin the Kangaroos can bank on. In his last five home games, Sheezel has been a possession magnet, averaging a staggering 33.6 disposals. With a sharp disposalefficiency of 73.3% and a knack for gaining crucial metres (435.8 average), he's a key playmaker for North Melbourne. Against the upcoming opponent, the Brisbane Lions, Sheezel has comfortably averaged 31.7 disposals in their recent encounters. His recent form is red hot, hitting 4 consecutive overs in home games and boasting an impressive 7 out of 8 hit rate overall. With the model predicting him to notch up 31.1 disposals, Sheezel's consistency and current form make the Over 28.5 disposals a compelling bet for this clash at Barossa Park.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Lions vs Kangaroos, or as Kangaroos vs Lions. The most recent game between them was Saturday 11 April 2026 at Barossa Park. The model has generated 3 game picks and 18 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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