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Model picks & player props
Brisbane Lions
VS
North Melbourne Kangaroos

Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:19AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Barossa Park, Lyndoch
Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 2:35AM
3
Game Picks
18
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Head to Head)
For Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (AFL), model win probability 34.1%, fair odds 2.93, book price +480, model edge +16.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 11 Apr 2026, 2:35AM at Barossa Park.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Head to Head
North Melbourne Kangaroos
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
North Melbourne KangaroosHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Kangaroos

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Sam Draper Brisbane Lions Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Darling North Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cameron Zurhaar North Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Hugh McCluggage Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nick Larkey North Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos — model preview

<p>Latest AFL betting preview: North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Brisbane Lions. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Harry Sheezel. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Brisbane Lions stats and odds.</p>

Harry Sheezel (North Melbourne) Over 28.5 Disposals (-154)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable midfield performances, Harry Sheezel is the linchpin the Kangaroos can bank on. In his last five home games, Sheezel has been a possession magnet, averaging a staggering 33.6 disposals. With a sharp disposalefficiency of 73.3% and a knack for gaining crucial metres (435.8 average), he's a key playmaker for North Melbourne. Against the upcoming opponent, the Brisbane Lions, Sheezel has comfortably averaged 31.7 disposals in their recent encounters. His recent form is red hot, hitting 4 consecutive overs in home games and boasting an impressive 7 out of 8 hit rate overall. With the model predicting him to notch up 31.1 disposals, Sheezel's consistency and current form make the Over 28.5 disposals a compelling bet for this clash at Barossa Park.

Lincoln McCarthy (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-286)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Lincoln McCarthy heads into the clash against North Melbourne with a hunger to make his mark on the scoreboard. With an average of 0.6 goals in his last five away games, McCarthy is no stranger to finding the big sticks. His recent form shows promise, boasting an impressive 23.3% goal accuracy and averaging 2 shots on goal per game. Against North Melbourne, he has historically snagged an average of 2 goals in their away encounters, indicating he knows how to navigate their defense. McCarthy's knack for being involved in scores, averaging 4.4 score involvements per game, further cements his potential impact. With his current form and historical success against this opponent, backing Lincoln McCarthy to kick over 0.5 goals seems like a solid bet for this upcoming clash.

Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) Over 19.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable disposal machines in the AFL, Josh Dunkley stands tall. His recent form away from home has been nothing short of stellar, averaging 22.2 disposals per game over his last five road matches. He's not just a quantity player either; his disposalefficiency sits at a respectable 62.8%. Facing North Melbourne, Dunkley has historically stepped up his game, averaging a solid 27.7 disposals against them in their previous encounters. With a line set at 19.5, Dunkley seems poised to comfortably surpass this mark given his consistent performance and the matchup dynamics. His ability to find the ball in contested situations (8.6 contested possessions on average) and contribute significantly in terms of metres gained (203.6) make him a prime candidate to rack up the disposals. Bet confidently on Dunkley to shine brightly in this clash.

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) Over 18.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop in the AFL, Darcy Wilmot is a prime candidate for hitting the Over 18.5 disposals mark against North Melbourne. Over his last five away games, Wilmot has been a consistent ball magnet, averaging 21 disposals per game. His ability to find the footy is bolstered by a solid disposalefficiency of 71.1%, ensuring he maximizes his possessions. Against North Melbourne specifically, he's been even more prolific, averaging 20 disposals in their matchups. With his recent form showing an average of 15.6 kicks and 5.4 handballs per game, Wilmot is well-positioned to surpass the 18.5 disposals line. Bet confidently on Wilmot to continue his strong run and rack up the possessions when the Lions take on the Kangaroos in this upcoming clash at Barossa Park.

Harry Sheezel (North Melbourne) Over 25.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Harry Sheezel, the midfield maestro for the North Melbourne Kangaroos, is poised to dominate the disposal count against the Brisbane Lions at Barossa Park. Over his last five home games, Sheezel has been a possession magnet, averaging a whopping 33.6 disposals per game. His recent form is nothing short of stellar, with an impressive average of 31.8 disposals across all matches. Facing the Lions, Sheezel has historically upped his game, boasting a strong average of 29 disposals against them at home. With a current hit streak of 6 home games and an exceptional hit rate of 6/6, Sheezel is a reliable bet to surpass the line of 25.5 disposals set by sportsbet. His ability to find space, deliver precise kicks, and rack up uncontested possessions makes him a prime candidate to shine in this matchup. Backing Sheezel to eclipse 25.5 disposals is not just a bet; it's a calculated move based on his undeniable form and historical performance against the Lions.

Colby McKercher (North Melbourne) Over 22.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Colby McKercher is set to light up the Barossa Park as North Melbourne takes on Brisbane. Over his last five home games, McKercher has been a disposal machine, averaging an impressive 23.8 disposals with a solid 84.4% efficiency. Facing the Lions, he's maintained a consistent 13 disposals per game. McKercher's ability to find the footy both in contested situations and uncontested positions makes him a reliable asset in the Kangaroos' midfield. With a current hit streak of two games and an overall hit rate of 13 out of 16, McKercher is in prime form to surpass the 22.5 disposals line. Bet confidently on McKercher to keep the possession game strong and hit the over in this clash.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
1
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
11 Apr 26 Head to Head North Melbourne Kangaroos ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at Barossa Park. The model has generated 3 game picks and 18 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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