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Model picks & player props
Brisbane Lions
VS
Geelong Cats

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 6:47PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul 2026, 9:30AM
20
Game markets graded
20
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Geelong Cats -14.5 Spread -111

The model graded 40 markets for Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 2 Jul 2026, 9:30AM at GMHBA Stadium.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win68.6%
The price says52.6%
Best price-111
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Geelong Cats -14.5 High69% chance -111
Spread High68% chance
Moneyline Lean51% chance
Spread High63% chance
Total Points High62% chance
Spread High62% chance
Total Points Lean59% chance
Total Points Lean58% chance
Goals × 10 props Highup to 91%
Disposals × 10 props Highup to 83%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Brisbane Lions · $100 returned $276

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Geelong Cats
-14.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 20 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Geelong CatsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Geelong CatsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Brisbane LionsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Brisbane LionsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Brisbane LionsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Cats

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Kai Lohmann Brisbane Lions Goals
Ryan Lester Brisbane Lions Disposals
Jeremy Cameron Geelong Cats Goals
Shaun Mannagh Geelong Cats Goals
Zac Bailey Brisbane Lions Goals

+ 20 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats — what the model found

Our model graded 40 betting markets for Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats — 20 on the game itself and 20 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
20
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 40 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 39 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats — recent results

Geelong Cats have won 4 of their last 5 games; Brisbane Lions have won 4 of their last 5.

Geelong Cats — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W133–76RICHHome
W125–110NMFCAway
W117–50ESSHome
W102–75STKHome
L73–86GWSAway
Brisbane Lions — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W159–96COLLAway
W95–53SUNSHome
W125–58HAWHome
L78–154CARLAway
W126–67PORTHome

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Geelong Cats won 1, Brisbane Lions won 1.

DateGeelong CatsBrisbane LionsWinner
Jul 2101123Brisbane Lions
May 1411776Geelong Cats

Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats — model preview

Latest AFL betting preview: Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Zach Guthrie. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions stats and odds.

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions : Brisbane Lions 14.5 (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the Geelong Cats hosting the Brisbane Lions at GMHBA Stadium, recent trends paint a clear picture. The Cats, while strong overall, have shown vulnerability in their last five games with a margin average of just 9.8. On the defensive end, they've been leaking points, conceding an average of 79.4 points per game. Meanwhile, the Lions have been consistent, especially on the road, boasting an impressive 10.6 average margin in their last five away games. With a potent offense averaging 109.2 points, they have the firepower to keep this matchup tight. Backed by their ability to generate inside 50s and shots at goal, the Lions are poised to make this a closer contest than the spread suggests. Taking Brisbane Lions at +14.5 seems like a savvy play given their recent form and Geelong's defensive vulnerabilities.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
02 Jul 26 Moneyline Brisbane Lions ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Spread Brisbane Lions +14.5 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Spread Brisbane Lions +13.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Lions vs Cats, or as Cats vs Lions. The most recent game between them was Thursday 2 July 2026 at GMHBA Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 20 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Even at 1–1 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Jul 2026Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats101–123Brisbane Lions
14 May 2026Geelong Cats @ Brisbane Lions76–117Geelong Cats
Today's selected board

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