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Model picks & player props
Brisbane Lions
VS
Geelong Cats

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 3:53PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul 2026, 9:30AM
20
Game markets graded
20
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Geelong Cats -14.5 (Spread)
The model graded 40 markets for Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 68.6%, fair odds 1.46, book price -111, model edge +15.9%. Tip-off Thu 2 Jul 2026, 9:30AM at GMHBA Stadium.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Brisbane Lions · $100 returned $276

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Geelong Cats
-14.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Geelong CatsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Geelong CatsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Brisbane LionsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Brisbane LionsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Brisbane LionsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Cats

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Kai Lohmann Brisbane Lions Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ryan Lester Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jeremy Cameron Geelong Cats Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Shaun Mannagh Geelong Cats Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Zac Bailey Brisbane Lions Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats — what the model found

Our model graded 40 betting markets for Brisbane Lions at Geelong Cats — 20 on the game itself and 20 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
20
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 40 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats — recent results

Geelong Cats have won 2 of their last 4 games; Brisbane Lions have won 4 of their last 5.

Geelong Cats — last 4
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W117–50ESSHome
W102–75STKHome
L73–86GWSAway
L101–123BLHome
Brisbane Lions — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W125–58HAWHome
L78–154CARLAway
W126–67PORTHome
W123–101GEELAway
W126–83SYDHome

Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Geelong Cats won 0, Brisbane Lions won 1.

DateGeelong CatsBrisbane LionsWinner
Jul 2101123Brisbane Lions

Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats — model preview

Latest AFL betting preview: Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Zach Guthrie. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions stats and odds.

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions : Brisbane Lions 14.5 (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the Geelong Cats hosting the Brisbane Lions at GMHBA Stadium, recent trends paint a clear picture. The Cats, while strong overall, have shown vulnerability in their last five games with a margin average of just 9.8. On the defensive end, they've been leaking points, conceding an average of 79.4 points per game. Meanwhile, the Lions have been consistent, especially on the road, boasting an impressive 10.6 average margin in their last five away games. With a potent offense averaging 109.2 points, they have the firepower to keep this matchup tight. Backed by their ability to generate inside 50s and shots at goal, the Lions are poised to make this a closer contest than the spread suggests. Taking Brisbane Lions at +14.5 seems like a savvy play given their recent form and Geelong's defensive vulnerabilities.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
02 Jul 26 Moneyline Brisbane Lions ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Spread Brisbane Lions +14.5 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Spread Brisbane Lions +13.5 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Spread Geelong Cats -14.5 ✗ MISS
02 Jul 26 Spread Geelong Cats -13.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Lions vs Cats, or as Cats vs Lions. The most recent game between them was Thursday 2 July 2026 at GMHBA Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 20 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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