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Model picks & player props
Ottawa Senators
VS
Tampa Bay Lightning

Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 15, 4:54PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa Bay
Indoor
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 5:00PM
3
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Ottawa Senators 1.5 (Spread)
The model graded 3 markets for Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $157 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 72.7%, fair odds 1.38, book price -175, model edge +9.0%. Tip-off Sat 28 Mar 2026, 5:00PM at Benchmark International Arena.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Ottawa Senators
+1.5
-175
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Ottawa SenatorsPuck LineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Ottawa SenatorsPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Ottawa Senators

  • Artem Zub DOut
  • Jake Sanderson DOut

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut
Availability updated May 5, 4:10PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and watch the availability of Artem Zub, Jake Sanderson and Pontus Holmberg.
FactorThis fixture
Availability3 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Tampa Bay LightningNo line posted

Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LineOttawa Senators +1.5No line posted

Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning — 3 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning — recent results

Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5 games; Ottawa Senators have won 0 of their last 2.

Tampa Bay Lightning — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2MTLHome
W1–0MTLAway
L2–3MTLHome
W3–2MTLAway
L2–3MTLAway
Ottawa Senators — last 2
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–4CARHome
L1–2CARHome

Who’s out or in doubt

3 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT
Ottawa Senators
PlayerStatus
Artem Zub DOUT
Jake Sanderson DOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Senators vs Lightning, or as Lightning vs Senators. The most recent game between them was Saturday 28 March 2026 at Benchmark International Arena. The model has generated 3 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

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