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Model picks & player props
Brisbane Lions
VS
West Coast Eagles

Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 2, 3:40PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Optus Stadium, Perth
Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 10:10AM
20
Game Picks
12
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 27.5 (Team Total Points Q1)
For Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles (AFL), model win probability 75.7%, fair odds 1.32, book price -128, model edge +19.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 18 Jul 2026, 10:10AM at Optus Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Points Q1
Under
27.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total Points Q1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points Q1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Eagles

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jake Waterman West Coast Eagles Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Lachie Neale Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Elliot Yeo West Coast Eagles Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Graham West Coast Eagles Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Harley Reid West Coast Eagles Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles — model preview

<p>Latest AFL betting preview: West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Jack Graham. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions stats and odds.</p>

Jack Graham (West Coast Eagles) Over 14.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jack Graham hitting the Over 14.5 disposals mark in the upcoming clash between the West Coast Eagles and Brisbane Lions, the stats paint a compelling picture. In his last five home games, Graham has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 18.6 disposals, comfortably surpassing the 14.5 mark. His consistency is underscored by his impressive 71.3% disposal efficiency and a knack for gaining significant metres (230.2 on average). With recent performances against Brisbane also showing promise (averaging 15 disposals), Graham seems poised to thrive on his home turf at Optus Stadium. Backed by a track record of hitting his disposal numbers, Graham's ability to find the footy and impact the game makes him a prime candidate to snag Over 14.5 disposals in this weekend's matchup.

Jack Graham (West Coast Eagles) Over 13.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Jack Graham and his potential to rack up the disposals in the upcoming West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions clash at Optus Stadium. Graham, holding a model-predicted 19.5 disposals, has been a midfield workhorse of late, boasting a solid 18.6 disposals average over his last five home games. Against the Lions, he's been even more prolific, averaging 15 disposals in their recent encounters. With a knack for contested possessions (8.4 avg) and efficient ball use (71.3% disposal efficiency), Graham's ability to impact the game is undeniable. Plus, his recent hit rates have been stellar, making the Over 13.5 disposals line seem like a tempting bet. Given his form, the home ground advantage, and historical performance against Brisbane, backing Graham to surpass 13.5 disposals feels like a solid play for this Saturday's showdown.

Harley Reid (West Coast Eagles) Over 20.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

If you're looking to back a sure bet in the West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions clash, Harley Reid is your man. The stats don't lie – over his last five home games, Reid has been a midfield maestro, racking up an average of 26.4 disposals per game. Facing the Lions, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 20 disposals, Reid's recent form is red hot. With a current hit streak of 5 at home and 6 overall, Reid consistently delivers when it matters most. His precision with a 64.8% disposal efficiency and ability to cover ground with 503.4 metres gained per game make the Over 20.5 disposals line a tantalizing prospect. Backing Reid to surpass this mark is a savvy play given his recent stellar performances and historical success against the Lions.

West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions : Under 89.5 totals_h2 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When the West Coast Eagles lock horns with the Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium, the stage is set for a defensive showdown. The Eagles, in their last five games, have tightened their backline, allowing an average of just 78.4 points per game at home. Conversely, the Lions have shown resilience on the road, conceding only 77.4 points on average overall. With both teams boasting solid defensive structures, the total points line of 89.5 seems a bit ambitious. The Eagles' average of 79.8 points for and the Lions' impressive 113.2 points scored away suggest a gritty, low-scoring affair. Expect fierce pressure, tight contests, and a battle for every snagged goal. The under 89.5 looks like a tantalizing proposition in this defensive chess match under the Perth lights.

West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions : Under 45.5 totals_q3 (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When the West Coast Eagles clash with the Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium, brace yourself for a defensive showdown. The Eagles, known for their tenacity at home, have been holding opponents to an average of 78.4 points in their last five games in Perth. Their backline, led by stalwarts like McGovern and Hurn, has been rock solid, restricting teams to just 9 behinds per game. On the flip side, the Lions have been a scoring machine on the road, averaging a whopping 113.2 points in their last five away games. However, facing the Eagles' defensive prowess will be a different challenge altogether. With the game likely to be a midfield battle, expect both teams to struggle to convert opportunities into goals. Considering these recent trends, backing the 'Under 45.5' in the Totals Q3 market seems like a prudent move for punters.

West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions : Under 45.5 totals_q1 (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When the West Coast Eagles clash with the Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium, the stage is set for a defensive slugfest. The Eagles, known for their solid backline, concede an average of 78.4 points in their last five home games. Combined with Brisbane's offensive prowess, scoring an average of 113.2 points on the road, a total tally under 45.5 for the first quarter seems like a safe bet. With the Eagles' home games averaging 25.4 shots at goal but only converting 11.8 into majors, and the Lions boasting a strong average of 57.4 inside 50s, the potential for a low-scoring start is high. Expect both teams to come out firing, but the defensive pressure should keep the scoreboard relatively quiet early on.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
8
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
18 Jul 26 Total Points H2 Under 89.5 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Total Points H2 Under 86.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Points H1 Under 86.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Points H1 Under 89.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Points Under 179.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Points Under 174.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Team Total Points Q1 Under 27.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Team Total Points Q1 Under 26.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 18 July 2026 at Optus Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 12 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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