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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lincoln McCarthy is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 79%, for a model edge of +4.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:51AM UTC
AFL

Lincoln McCarthy

Brisbane Lions

+4.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -385 (1.26)
+4.2% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
83.6%
Implied Probability
79.4%
Model Edge
+4.2%
Predicted Value
1.3 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals83.6%—79.4%1.20+4.2%

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AI Analysis

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Lincoln McCarthy (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-385)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Lincoln McCarthy stands out as a prime candidate for this upcoming clash against Melbourne. Despite being on the road, McCarthy has been in solid goal-scoring form lately, averaging 0.8 goals in his last five away games. His recent hit rate of 9 goals in the last 11 away matches showcases his ability to consistently impact the scoreboard. With an average of 2.2 shots at goal per game, McCarthy isn't shy about taking his chances when in a scoring position. Plus, facing off against Melbourne, where he averages 0.8 goals in their recent encounters, McCarthy will be eager to continue his scoring streak. With his current form and track record against this opponent, betting on McCarthy to slot one through the big sticks looks like a solid play for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
12.3avg disposals recent
Season best18
Disposals last 10avg 12.3 · hi 18 · lo 0
18713151714131790

Lincoln McCarthy has a disposals high of 18 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.2avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 1.2 · hi 2 · lo 0
2221120110

Lincoln McCarthy has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -385 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lincoln McCarthy (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lincoln McCarthy is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 19 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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