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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lincoln McCarthy is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 84 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 84%, implied 79%, edge +4.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 12:01AM UTC
AFL

Lincoln McCarthy

Brisbane Lions

+4.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -385 (1.26) · $100→$126
+4.2% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
84 in 100
Predicted
1.3 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 83.6% · the book's price implies 79.4% · gap +4.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals83.6%79.4%1.20+4.2%

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AI Analysis

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Lincoln McCarthy (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-385)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Lincoln McCarthy stands out as a prime candidate for this upcoming clash against Melbourne. Despite being on the road, McCarthy has been in solid goal-scoring form lately, averaging 0.8 goals in his last five away games. His recent hit rate of 9 goals in the last 11 away matches showcases his ability to consistently impact the scoreboard. With an average of 2.2 shots at goal per game, McCarthy isn't shy about taking his chances when in a scoring position. Plus, facing off against Melbourne, where he averages 0.8 goals in their recent encounters, McCarthy will be eager to continue his scoring streak. With his current form and track record against this opponent, betting on McCarthy to slot one through the big sticks looks like a solid play for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Lincoln McCarthy averaged 12.3 disposals, 1.0 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 8 games in 2024.

12.3
Disposals
1.0
Goals
3.8
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (5 May 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Lincoln McCarthy recorded 0 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
5 May 24Gold Coast SUNS0000
25 Apr 24GWS GIANTS9131
20 Apr 24Geelong Cats17117
11 Apr 24Melbourne13043
5 Apr 24North Melbourne14283
28 Mar 24Collingwood17162
17 Mar 24Fremantle15123
8 Mar 24Carlton13262
30 Sep 23Collingwood7231
23 Sep 23Carlton18237
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Lincoln McCarthy (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lincoln McCarthy is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 19 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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