Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
AFL

Lincoln McCarthy

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Lincoln McCarthy (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: over 0.5 goals that pays $132 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
84 in 100
Predicted
1.3 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 83.6% · the book's price implies 75.8% · gap +7.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 3:15 PM AEST
Lincoln McCarthy
over 0.5 goals
Goals Over 0.5 -313 (1.32) · $100→$132
Value call
HIGHWins about 84 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.20 Odds-312
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lincoln McCarthy is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 84 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 84%, the price says 76%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:05PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals83.6%—75.8%1.20+7.8%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Lincoln McCarthy (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-312)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Lincoln McCarthy's recent form, it's clear he's been hungry in front of the big sticks. With an average of 0.8 goals per game over his last five away matches, he's been a consistent threat inside 50. McCarthy's ability to convert opportunities is improving, boasting a 26.7% goal accuracy and showcasing a knack for being involved in scoring plays with 4.2 score involvements per game. Facing Melbourne, where he's maintained an average of 0.8 goals in their previous encounters, McCarthy seems poised to continue his scoring streak. With a current hit streak of 2 away games and a solid hit rate of 9 out of his last 11 away matches, he's in prime position to snag at least one goal in this upcoming clash. Betting on McCarthy to go over 0.5 goals could be a smart play given his recent form and matchup history.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Season averages (2024)

Lincoln McCarthy averaged 12.3 disposals, 1.0 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 8 games in 2024.

12.3
Disposals
1.0
Goals
3.8
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (5 May 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Lincoln McCarthy recorded 0 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
5 May 24Gold Coast SUNS0000
25 Apr 24GWS GIANTS9131
20 Apr 24Geelong Cats17117
11 Apr 24Melbourne13043
5 Apr 24North Melbourne14283
28 Mar 24Collingwood17162
17 Mar 24Fremantle15123
8 Mar 24Carlton13262
30 Sep 23Collingwood7231
23 Sep 23Carlton18237
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Lincoln McCarthy (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lincoln McCarthy is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.8% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 19 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.