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Model picks & player props
Port Adelaide Power
VS
Brisbane Lions

Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:19AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Gabba, Brisbane
Outdoor
Sat 5 Jul 2025, 9:35AM
19
Game Picks
22
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Port Adelaide Power 26.5 (Spread)
For Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions (AFL), model win probability 72.0%, fair odds 1.39, book price -111, model edge +19.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 5 Jul 2025, 9:35AM at Gabba.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Port Adelaide Power
26.5
+ 18 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Port Adelaide PowerSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Port Adelaide PowerSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Port Adelaide PowerHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Brisbane LionsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Power

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Mitch Georgiades Port Adelaide Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Charlie Cameron Brisbane Lions Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Miles Bergman Port Adelaide Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Logan Morris Brisbane Lions Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Zac Bailey Brisbane Lions Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Willie Rioli. Check out AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power stats and odds.</p>

Willie Rioli (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Willie Rioli is poised to snag a goal in the upcoming Brisbane vs. Port Adelaide clash, with a model predicting him to score at least 1.2 goals. His recent form, averaging 1.8 goals in the last five away games, along with a solid goal accuracy of 65.3%, indicates his ability to hit the scoreboard consistently. With an average of 2.6 shots at goal and 1.4 marks inside 50 in away games, Rioli is actively involved in creating scoring opportunities. Facing an opponent where he has averaged 1 goal in the last five matchups, Rioli's goal-scoring potential is further supported. The Over 0.5 goal line for Rioli presents a promising bet with strong statistical backing for him to contribute on the scoreboard.

Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Darcy Byrne-Jones is a solid bet to snag a goal based on his recent form. With an average of 0.6 goals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he averages 0.5 goals, he is consistent. Despite a slightly lower goal accuracy away at 30.0%, his involvement in scores (4 per game) and shots at goal (1.8 per game) indicate active participation. The model's prediction of 1.1 goals with a 6.9% edge suggests a high likelihood of him hitting the scoreboard. Considering his recent performance and the matchup dynamics, backing Byrne-Jones to score anytime seems a promising proposition in this AFL clash.

Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jason Horne-Francis is a solid bet to snag a goal in the Brisbane vs. Port Adelaide matchup. With a model predicting him to score at least 0.9 goals and an impressive 66.7% implied probability, his recent form supports this. Averaging 0.4 goals in his last five away games, with 2.2 shots on goal and 5 score involvements per game, he's actively involved in creating scoring opportunities. Additionally, facing an opponent where he averages 0.2 goals against, Horne-Francis is poised to capitalize on his goal-scoring potential. Considering his recent goal accuracy of 16.7% and the line set at 0.5, the odds are in his favor to contribute on the scoreboard.

Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide) Over 24.5 Disposals (-286)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Connor Rozee has been on fire, maintaining an impressive hit streak and high disposals average. His recent form, especially in away games, shows consistency in exceeding 24.5 disposals. Facing the Brisbane Lions, against whom he historically averages 21 disposals, further boosts his chances. With a model predicting him to reach 28.4 disposals and a solid edge of 4.0%, Rozee's high disposals efficiency and ability to gain meters make him a strong candidate to snag over 24.5 disposals. His recent performance metrics, including contested possessions and intercepts, indicate a player in top form, making the Over a compelling bet for Connor Rozee in this matchup.

Kane Farrell (Port Adelaide) Over 14.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Kane Farrell presents a strong case for surpassing 14.5 disposals against Brisbane. His recent away form showcases consistent performance with an average of 19.8 disposals over the last five games. Facing Brisbane, he has historically recorded an average of 19.3 disposals, indicating his capability against this opponent. With a model prediction of 18.8 disposals and a 3.5% edge, the implied probability of 76.9% suggests a high likelihood of Farrell exceeding the line. His exceptional disposal efficiency of 75.3% and a current hit streak of 5 away games and 13 overall further support this bet. Based on his recent form and historical data, backing Farrell to eclipse 14.5 disposals seems like a favorable wager for this matchup.

Callum Ah Chee (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-417)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Callum Ah Chee presents a solid opportunity to snag a goal in the upcoming Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power game. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 home games, a strong 42.0% goal accuracy, and 2.8 shots at goal per game, Ah Chee is poised to capitalize on his scoring potential. Additionally, facing an opponent where he has historically averaged 0.7 goals per game, Ah Chee's recent form of 1.4 goals on average makes him a promising choice to hit the back of the net. Considering his consistent involvement in scoring opportunities with 4.8 score involvements per game, Ah Chee's chances of splitting the middle at least once are notably favorable.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 5 July 2025 at Gabba. The model has generated 19 game picks and 22 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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