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Model picks & player props
Essendon Bombers
VS
Brisbane Lions

Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Gabba, Brisbane
Outdoor
Thu 29 May 2025, 9:30AM
13
Game Picks
13
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Brisbane Lions -32.5 (Spread)
For Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions (AFL), model win probability 93.8%, fair odds 1.07, book price -111, model edge +41.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 29 May 2025, 9:30AM at Gabba.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Brisbane Lions
-32.5
+ 12 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Brisbane LionsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Lachie Neale Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nate Caddy Essendon Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Will Setterfield Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andrew McGrath Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Darcy Wilmot Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions — model preview

<p>Latest AFL betting preview: Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Archie Roberts. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers stats and odds.</p>

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 24.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Archie Roberts is gearing up for a showdown at the Gabba, and the numbers paint a compelling picture for him to shine in the disposals department. Over his last five away games, Archie has been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 30.2 disposals per game. His ability to find the ball is undeniable, with an impressive average of 20.8 kicks and 9.4 handballs in those outings. Facing the Brisbane Lions, Archie has historically notched up 24 disposals on average, a mark he's consistently exceeded recently. With his current form and track record against this opponent, backing Archie Roberts to surpass 24.5 disposals seems like a safe bet. Watch him hunt down possessions, drive the play, and make an impact on the game this Sunday.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 23.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to dominate the midfield battle, Archie Roberts stands out as a prime contender. In his last five away games, Roberts has been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 30.2 disposals per game, well above the set line of 23.5. His ability to find the footy with ease, coupled with a solid disposal efficiency of 78.6%, makes him a reliable option for hitting that over. Facing the Brisbane Lions, whom he has historically performed well against with an average of 24 disposals in their matchups, further boosts his chances. Roberts' current form and consistency, highlighted by hitting 8 out of his last 9 away games, make him a compelling pick to snag those crucial possessions at the Gabba.

Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 13.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to surpass their disposal line, Angus Clarke from Essendon is a prime candidate. Clarke has been a consistent force in recent games, especially on the road, where he has been averaging a solid 15.2 disposals per match. Facing Brisbane, who he's previously outperformed with an average of 11 disposals in their last encounters, Clarke is poised to shine. With a recent hit streak of 4 games and a knack for racking up uncontested possessions, coupled with his 73.3% disposal efficiency, Clarke's ability to find space and use the ball effectively bodes well for this bet. The model predicting him to hit 16.6 disposals, with a 3.9% edge, further solidifies the case for taking the Over 13.5 on Clarke's disposals. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, driving Essendon's midfield productivity at the Gabba.

Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 12.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Angus Clarke is primed to shine in the upcoming clash against Brisbane at the Gabba. Over his last five away games, Clarke has been a prolific ball-winner, averaging a solid 15.2 disposals. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his impressive 73.3% disposal efficiency. Facing the Lions, he has historically upped his game, averaging 18.8 disposals against them overall and 11 disposals per match in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 4 and a model prediction of 16.6 disposals, the odds are in Clarke's favor to surpass the 12.5 disposal line. Bet confidently on Clarke to thrive in the midfield battle and rack up the possessions needed to secure the Over bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 29 May 2025 at Gabba. The model has generated 13 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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