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Model picks & player props
Essendon Bombers
VS
Brisbane Lions

Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 8:34PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Gabba, Brisbane
Outdoor
Thu 29 May 2025, 9:30AM
13
Game markets graded
13
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Brisbane Lions -32.5 (Spread)
The model graded 26 markets for Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 93.8%, fair odds 1.07, book price -111, model edge +41.1%. Tip-off Thu 29 May 2025, 9:30AM at Gabba.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Brisbane Lions
-32.5
+ 12 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Brisbane LionsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Essendon BombersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Bombers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Lachie Neale Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nate Caddy Essendon Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Will Setterfield Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andrew McGrath Essendon Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Darcy Wilmot Brisbane Lions Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions — what the model found

Our model graded 26 betting markets for Essendon Bombers at Brisbane Lions — 13 on the game itself and 13 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

13
Game markets graded
13
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 26 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 25 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions — recent results

Brisbane Lions have won 4 of their last 5 games; Essendon Bombers have won 0 of their last 0.

Brisbane Lions — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W125–58HAWHome
L78–154CARLAway
W126–67PORTHome
W123–101GEELAway
W126–83SYDHome

Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions — model preview

Latest AFL betting preview: Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Archie Roberts. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers stats and odds.

Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 24.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Archie Roberts is gearing up for a showdown at the Gabba, and the numbers paint a compelling picture for him to shine in the disposals department. Over his last five away games, Archie has been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 30.2 disposals per game. His ability to find the ball is undeniable, with an impressive average of 20.8 kicks and 9.4 handballs in those outings. Facing the Brisbane Lions, Archie has historically notched up 24 disposals on average, a mark he's consistently exceeded recently. With his current form and track record against this opponent, backing Archie Roberts to surpass 24.5 disposals seems like a safe bet. Watch him hunt down possessions, drive the play, and make an impact on the game this Sunday.

🔒 The other 3 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Bombers vs Lions, or as Lions vs Bombers. The most recent game between them was Thursday 29 May 2025 at Gabba. The model has generated 13 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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