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The latest Bet Better model pick for Shannon Neale is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +4.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 11:36AM UTC
AFL

Shannon Neale

Geelong Cats

+4.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -769 (1.13)
+4.3% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Mon 6 Apr, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
92.8%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+4.3%
Predicted Value
1.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals92.8%—88.5%1.08+4.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Shannon Neale (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to AFL betting, sometimes the most reliable plays are right in front of us. Shannon Neale, the Geelong Cats' sharpshooter, is on an absolute tear lately, bagging an average of 3.6 goals in his last five away games. Facing off against the Hawthorn Hawks at the iconic MCG, Neale's keen eye for the big sticks is poised to make an impact. With an impressive shot accuracy of 73.0% and an average of 4.8 shots at goal per game, Neale's scoring prowess is hard to ignore. Add in his consistency with a current hit streak of 8 away games, and the Over 0.5 goals for Shannon Neale seems like a solid bet. When the pressure's on, count on Neale to split the middle and snag us a goal or two.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 9.5
9.8avg disposals L5
Home12.2vs St Kilda6.3Season best13
O 9.580%
O 10.550%
O 11.530%
O 12.520%
O 13.520%
O 14.520%
Game log vs line (O 9.5)avg 9.5 · hi 13 · lo 5
812511108101399

Shannon Neale has gone over 9.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 9.8 disposals, best 13).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 1.5
1.6avg goals L5
Home2vs St Kilda0.8Season best3
O 0.570%
O 1.560%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1.4 · hi 2 · lo 0
1221121220

Shannon Neale has gone over 1.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.6 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Apr 26 Geelong Cats @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✗ MISS
26 Mar 26 Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Shannon Neale (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Shannon Neale is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.3% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks on Monday 6 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.