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Model picks & player props
St Kilda Saints
VS
Geelong Cats

St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 16, 12:34PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul 2026, 9:30AM
20
Game Picks
15
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Geelong Cats -3.5 (Spread Q3)
For St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats (AFL), model win probability 64.6%, fair odds 1.55, book price -112, model edge +11.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 16 Jul 2026, 9:30AM at GMHBA Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread Q3
Geelong Cats
-3.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Geelong CatsSpread Q3Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Geelong CatsSpread Q4Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Geelong CatsSpread Q2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St Kilda SaintsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points H1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points H1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward St Kilda Saints on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward St Kilda Saints
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Saints

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Cats

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Callum Wilkie St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mitch Owens St Kilda Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Darcy Wilson St Kilda Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Zach Guthrie Geelong Cats Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats — model preview

<p>Latest AFL betting preview: Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Lawson Humphries. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints stats and odds.</p>

Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) Over 19.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Lawson Humphries is set to light up the field at GMHBA Stadium, boasting a recent surge in form that can't go unnoticed. With an average of 21 disposals in his last five home games, Humphries has been a midfield maestro, dominating the contested possessions and racking up impressive kicks and handballs. Facing St Kilda, against whom he's averaged 20.3 disposals recently, the stage is set for him to shine. His mettle is undeniable, with a solid disposalefficiency rate of 78.2% at home. Humphries' knack for intercepts and metres gained further solidifies his prowess. With a model prediction of 22.3 disposals and a convincing hit rate, backing Humphries to surpass 19.5 disposals is a strategic move with a high chance of success. Get ready to watch him orchestrate the Cats' play with precision and finesse.

Zach Guthrie (Geelong Cats) Over 13.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Zach Guthrie, the dynamic Geelong Cat, is poised to shine on home turf against the St Kilda Saints. Over his last five home games, Guthrie has been a midfield maestro, averaging a stellar 18 disposals per outing. His ability to find space, link up with teammates, and intercept opposition plays makes him a vital cog in Geelong's engine room. With an impressive disposal efficiency of 77.0% and an average of 10.2 kicks per game in his last five home appearances, Guthrie is primed to take control of the game's tempo. Facing St Kilda, against whom he boasts a solid average of 18 disposals, Guthrie's knack for winning contested possessions and creating scoring opportunities makes the Over 13.5 disposals line a tantalizing proposition. Expect Guthrie to stamp his authority in the midfield and snag a crucial win for the Cats.

Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) Over 18.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to pinpointing a player who's primed to make a serious impact in the upcoming Geelong Cats versus St Kilda Saints clash, all indicators point to Lawson Humphries snagging the spotlight. With his recent average of 21 disposals per game, including a solid 14.6 kicks and 6.4 handballs at home, Humphries has been a midfield maestro, consistently dominating possession. His metronomic efficiency, boasting a home game disposalefficiency of 78.2%, showcases his ability to make every touch count. Not to mention, his impressive average of 6.2 intercepts at GMHBA Stadium proves he's a defensive linchpin too. Facing St Kilda, against whom he's averaged a healthy 20.3 disposals in their last encounters, Humphries is set to split the middle with his disposals count and comfortably surpass the 18.5 line. This game presents the perfect stage for him to shine brightly once again.

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints : Geelong Cats -2.5 spreads_q2 (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright footy fans, let's dive into why backing the Geelong Cats at -2.5 in the Spreads Q2 market is a smart play against the St Kilda Saints. The Cats have been purring at home lately, averaging a solid 29.2 margin in their last 5 home games, with an impressive 110.6 points scored on average. They've been relentless in attack, averaging 62.4 Inside50s and 30.6 Shotsatgoal per game. On the flip side, the Saints have been struggling on the road, with an average margin of 8 in their last 5 away games. They've been leaking points, conceding 82.2 points on average. With Geelong's potent offense and St Kilda's vulnerability on defense, expect the Cats to control the game and cover the spread comfortably. Back the Cats to snag the win by more than 2.5 goals in an electrifying clash at GMHBA Stadium.

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints : Geelong Cats -2.5 spreads_q4 (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Thursday night footy at GMHBA Stadium, you can't overlook the Geelong Cats. Their recent form at home has been nothing short of dominant. Averaging a comfortable margin of 29.2 points in their last five home games, the Cats know how to protect their turf. With a potent attack that racks up an average of 110.6 points per game and a solid defense conceding just 81.4 points, they are a force to be reckoned with. On the other hand, St Kilda's away record hasn't been as impressive, with an average margin of just 8 points in their last five games on the road. Their defense leaks points, allowing 82.2 per game, while their scoring output at 90.2 points on average may not be enough to keep up with the Cats. Backing the Geelong Cats at -2.5 in the Spreads Q4 market seems like a smart play given their recent form and scoring prowess at home.

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints : Under 178.5 Total Points (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The clash between Geelong Cats and St Kilda Saints at GMHBA Stadium promises a defensive showdown. Geelong, averaging 110.6 points in their last five at home, faces a gritty St Kilda defense conceding just 82.2 points on the road. The Cats' precision, with 30.6 shots at goal and 62.4 inside 50s per game, might be stifled by the Saints' disciplined backline. St Kilda, scoring 90.2 points away, meets a Geelong defense allowing just 81.4 points at home. With both teams boasting strong defensive structures and disciplined play, the Total Points line of 178.5 seems ambitious. Expect a fierce battle where every snagged goal will be hard-earned, making the 'Under' an enticing bet for footy punters.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate
DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 16 July 2026 at GMHBA Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 15 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.