On Saturday 22 August 2026, Geelong Cats play Richmond Tigers in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Tim Taranto (Richmond) Over 21.5 Disposals, priced at -270 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
When it comes to AFL betting, Tim Taranto is a reliable asset for hitting the Over on disposals. In his last five away games, Taranto has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 24.2 disposals per match. What's even more impressive is his recent history against Geelong, where he's been even more prolific, averaging 26.3 disposals in their last five encounters. With a knack for contested possessions and a strong disposal efficiency around the 60% mark, Taranto is poised to make an impact at GMHBA Stadium. Add in his consistent ball-winning ability, averaging 12.6 kicks and 11.6 handballs per game, and you have a recipe for hitting that Over 21.5 disposals mark against the Cats. Taranto's form and matchup history make this bet a tantalizing prospect for footy punters looking for a solid player prop.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Over 12.5 Disposals (-200)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When looking at Patrick Dangerfield's recent form, it's hard not to get excited about his potential impact in this upcoming clash at GMHBA Stadium. In his last five home games, Dangerfield has been an absolute workhorse, averaging a whopping 15.4 disposals, with a significant chunk of those being contested possessions. Against Richmond, he's been even more prolific, averaging 20.5 disposals in their recent encounters.
With a line set at 12.5 disposals, Dangerfield seems poised to comfortably surpass this mark given his stellar track record. His ability to find the footy in traffic and generate meaningful meters gained makes him a constant threat on the field. Combine that with his recent disposal efficiency of 61.7%, and you have a player primed to showcase his skills and snag a big haul of possessions in front of the home crowd. Betting on Dangerfield to go over 12.5 disposals feels like a smart move backed by solid stats and recent performance trends.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Over 11.5 Disposals (-286)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at the upcoming clash between the Geelong Cats and the Richmond Tigers, all signs point to Patrick Dangerfield making a massive impact in the disposals department. With an average of 15.4 disposals in his last five home games, Dangerfield is a midfield maestro who thrives on home turf. Against the Tigers, he's been even more prolific, averaging 20.5 disposals per game in their recent encounters. His ability to find the footy is unmatched, with a keen eye for intercepts and a knack for gaining crucial meters for his team.
Considering his recent form, with 4 out of his last 5 home games hitting over 11.5 disposals, Dangerfield seems poised to dominate the midfield battle once again. With his stellar track record and the Tigers in his sights, backing Dangerfield to go over 11.5 disposals feels like a safe bet for this showdown at GMHBA Stadium.
Tim Taranto (Richmond) Over 9.5 player_handballs_over (-323)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing Tim Taranto to go over 9.5 handballs in the upcoming clash between the Tigers and the Cats, the numbers paint a clear picture. Taranto, known for his work rate and midfield prowess, is averaging a solid 13.2 handballs per game, a figure that sits comfortably above the set line. With a model edge of 4.9% and an implied probability of 76.3%, the odds are in our favor for Taranto to hit the mark. Playing away at GMHBA Stadium won't faze this seasoned player, as he's proven time and again his ability to find his teammates with precision. Trust in Taranto's form and consistency to snag those crucial handballs and help you secure a win on this prop bet.
Tim Taranto (Richmond) Over 20.5 Disposals (-455)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to AFL midfielders who can impact a game, Tim Taranto stands out as a prime candidate. In his last five away matches, Taranto has been a prolific ball-winner, averaging an impressive 24.2 disposals. Facing the Geelong Cats, a team he has historically performed well against with an average of 26.3 disposals in their recent matchups, Taranto is primed to continue his dominance.
With a solid disposal efficiency of 60.9% on the road and a knack for gaining valuable meters (avg. 332.8), Taranto is not just a quantity player but also a quality contributor. His recent form, including an average of 12.6 kicks and 11.6 handballs per game away from home, indicates he is well-positioned to surpass the 20.5 disposals line set by the bookmakers. Taranto's consistency and ability to find the ball make him a compelling pick for this prop bet.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Over 10.5 Disposals (-435)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to dominate the midfield, Patrick Dangerfield is a no-brainer pick. Playing at the electric GMHBA Stadium, Dangerfield thrives on the home turf, averaging 15.4 disposals in his last five home games. Against Richmond, he elevates his game even further, tallying an impressive 20.5 disposals on average in their recent matchups.
With his explosive bursts and precise ball use, Dangerfield poses a constant threat to opposition defenses. His recent form speaks volumes, with a solid hit rate and a knack for hitting the over on disposals. Given his consistency and hunger for the contest, backing Dangerfield to surpass 10.5 disposals against the Tigers is a smart bet with a high probability of hitting. Trust in the Geelong star to lead the charge and deliver on the big stage.
That is how our model reads Geelong Cats v Richmond Tigers. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.