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The latest Bet Better model pick for Oliver Henry is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 89%, for a model edge of +1.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:49AM UTC
AFL

Oliver Henry

Geelong Cats

+1.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -833 (1.12)
+1.6% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
90.9%
Implied Probability
89.3%
Model Edge
+1.6%
Predicted Value
1.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals90.9%—89.3%1.10+1.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Oliver Henry (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Goals (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Oliver Henry, the young gun for Geelong Cats, is poised to light up GMHBA Stadium against St Kilda Saints. In his last 5 home games, Henry has been a goal-scoring machine, averaging an impressive 1.8 goals per game. With a sharp eye for goal, his 43.3% goal accuracy ensures he capitalizes on opportunities inside 50. His recent performances indicate a strong presence in the forward line, with an average of 2.4 shots at goal and 1.6 marks inside 50. Given his consistent scoring form, backing Henry to snag over 0.5 goals in this matchup seems like a solid bet. Plus, with a 50.0% goal accuracy overall, he's proven to be a reliable finisher. Bet on Henry to keep the scoreboard ticking over in this high-stakes clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 1.5
1.2avg goals L5
Home1.8vs St Kilda0.8Season best4
O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1.6 · hi 4 · lo 0
0112111414

Oliver Henry has gone over 1.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.2 goals, best 4).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -526 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Oliver Henry (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oliver Henry is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 16 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.