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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Oliver Henry is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 63%, implied 75%, edge +0.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 7:55AM UTC
AFL

Oliver Henry

Geelong Cats

+0.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+0.4% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
1.5 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 75.6% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +0.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals75.6%63.1%75.2%1.58+0.4%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Oliver Henry Over 0.5 Goals (-303)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on fire lately, winning 7 out of their last 10 games. They've been scoring an average of nearly 45 points before half-time in their last 12 matches, which shows they start strong. Oliver Henry is likely to get a chance to score, especially with Fremantle's good form at home. Geelong Cats have also been solid, averaging 55.7 points before the break in their last 12 games. However, the teams are quite close in terms of points scored at quarter-time, with Geelong leading by just a small margin. The biggest risk here is that both teams can score, but Oliver is favored to find the net at least once.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Oliver Henry averaged 8.9 disposals, 1.6 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

8.9
Disposals
1.6
Goals
3.0
Marks
1.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Oliver Henry recorded 15 disposals and 4 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions15430
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide12144
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles13481
17 Aug 24St Kilda9122
10 Aug 24Fremantle8133
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows7121
27 Jul 24North Melbourne18251
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs5113
12 Jul 24Collingwood5110
6 Jul 24Hawthorn3010
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 0.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 0.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Goals Pending
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals Pending

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About This Player

Oliver Henry (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oliver Henry is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.4% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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