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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Henry is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +10.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 11:00AM UTC
AFL

Jack Henry

Geelong Cats

+10.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -164 (1.61)
+10.6% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.7%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+10.6%
Predicted Value
12.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.7%—62.1%1.37+10.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Jack Henry (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jack Henry is poised to surpass 9.5 disposals based on his recent form. His home game averages in contested possessions (3.4), kicks (8.2), and overall disposals (9.8) are solid. Against Brisbane, he has a higher disposals average of 12.4 in the last 5 home games. With an impressive 88.0% disposal efficiency, Henry is a key player in Geelong's setup. Although he hasn't hit a streak recently, his consistent home performance (16/19 hit rate) and overall reliability (9/11 hit rate) make him a reliable bet to exceed 9.5 disposals, especially with the model predicting 12.5 disposals, indicating a 10.6% edge.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
9.6avg disposals L5
Home10vs Essendon9.4Season best16
O 9.540%
O 10.530%
O 11.530%
O 12.510%
O 13.510%
O 14.510%
Game log vs line (O 9.5)avg 12.5 · hi 16 · lo 10
16161113121310141010

Jack Henry has gone over 9.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 9.6 disposals, best 16).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jack Henry (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Henry is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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