Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tyson Stengle is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 96 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 96%, implied 83%, edge +13.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 4:34PM UTC
AFL
Tyson Stengle
Geelong Cats
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-476 (1.21) · $100→$121
+13.8% Edge
Brisbane Lions
@
Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
96 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 96.5% · the book's price implies 82.6% · gap +13.8%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 96.5% | — | 82.6% | 1.04 | +13.8% |
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Tyson Stengle (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-476)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Tyson Stengle is a strong candidate to score anytime based on his recent form. With an average of 1.4 goals in his last five home games, he has showcased consistent scoring ability. His average of 3.4 shots at goal and 41.3% goal accuracy indicate he's actively involved in attacking plays and is likely to convert his opportunities. Additionally, facing the Brisbane Lions, against whom he averages 0.8 goals in his last five matchups, further supports his scoring potential. Stengle's impressive 13.8% edge based on the model's prediction suggests a high probability of him snagging a goal in this game at the MCG.
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Season averages (2024)
Tyson Stengle averaged 13.4 disposals, 1.8 goals and 2.7 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tyson Stengle recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 21 Sep 24 | Brisbane Lions | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 5 Sep 24 | Port Adelaide | 13 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 24 Aug 24 | West Coast Eagles | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 Aug 24 | St Kilda | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Fremantle | 7 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Adelaide Crows | 20 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 27 Jul 24 | North Melbourne | 11 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 20 Jul 24 | Western Bulldogs | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 Jul 24 | Collingwood | 16 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 14 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Tyson Stengle (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tyson Stengle is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.8% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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