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The latest Bet Better model pick for James Worpel is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 81 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 81%, implied 78%, edge +3.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 6:00AM UTC
AFL

James Worpel

Geelong Cats

+3.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+3.3% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
81 in 100
Predicted
21.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 81.5% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +3.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.5%—78.1%1.23+3.3%

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AI Analysis

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James Worpel (Geelong Cats) Over 16.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

James Worpel, the engine room for Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, is poised to shine against the Western Bulldogs. Averaging a healthy 22.2 disposals in his last five home games, Worpel has been a consistent ball magnet, often surpassing the 16.5 line comfortably. His recent form against the Bulldogs is particularly impressive, with a solid average of 25 disposals. Additionally, boasting a stellar 63.8% disposal efficiency and 10.2 handballs per game, Worpel is not just racking up numbers but doing so with precision and playmaking ability. With a streak of 15 straight hits in home games and a 78.1% implied probability, backing Worpel to go Over 16.5 disposals is a smart play for punters looking to capitalize on his midfield dominance.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

James Worpel averaged 21.8 disposals, 0.2 goals and 2.1 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

21.8
Disposals
0.2
Goals
2.1
Marks
4.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), James Worpel recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide18027
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs20034
24 Aug 24North Melbourne20024
18 Aug 24Richmond29224
11 Aug 24Carlton25034
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS16013
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows20028
20 Jul 24Collingwood28101
13 Jul 24Fremantle24023
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats26147
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

James Worpel (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for James Worpel is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats on Friday 17 April at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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