Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for James Worpel is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +4.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
AFL

James Worpel

Geelong Cats

+4.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -250 (1.40)
+4.2% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
75.6%
Implied Probability
71.4%
Model Edge
+4.2%
Predicted Value
21.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.6%—71.4%1.32+4.2%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

James Worpel (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between the Geelong Cats and the Western Bulldogs, all eyes are on James Worpel to shine on his home turf at GMHBA Stadium. Worpel's recent form is nothing short of impressive, averaging a solid 22.2 disposals in his last five home games, surpassing the 17.5 line comfortably. His ability to find space and make an impact is evident, with an average disposal efficiency of 63.8% and 10.2 handballs per game in his last five home fixtures. Against the Bulldogs, he has been even more prolific, averaging 25 disposals in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 3 at home and a strong overall hit rate, backing Worpel to go over 17.5 disposals seems like a smart play, given his recent form and historical performance against the Bulldogs.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.6avg disposals recent
Season best29
Disposals last 10avg 22.6 · hi 29 · lo 16
26242820162529202018

James Worpel has a disposals high of 29 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals 16.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals 15.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

James Worpel (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for James Worpel is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.2% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats on Friday 17 April at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks