Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jhye Clark is Under 12.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 54%, edge +19.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 2:28AM UTC
AFL
Jhye Clark
Geelong Cats
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Under 12.5
-118 (1.85) · $100→$185
+19.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions
@
Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 17°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
74 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 73.7% · the book's price implies 54.1% · gap +19.7%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 73.7% | — | 54.1% | 1.36 | +19.7% |
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Jhye Clark (Geelong Cats) Under 12.5 Disposals (-118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jhye Clark is poised to stay under 12.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG based on his recent form. With a model prediction of 9.3 disposals and a strong 19.7% edge, Clark's averages of 5.8 disposals in his last five home games and 7.2 overall suggest he may struggle to reach the 12.5 line. Additionally, his turnovers average of 1.4 and lower contested possession rate at home could hinder his disposals count. Despite a solid hit rate of 4/5 in home games, his overall hit rate of 6/7 still supports the under bet, making it a statistically-driven choice.
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Season averages (2024)
Jhye Clark averaged 12.2 disposals, 0.1 goals and 1.7 marks per game across 15 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (12 Jul 24 vs Collingwood), Jhye Clark recorded 16 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 12 Jul 24 | Collingwood | 16 | 0 | 8 | 1 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Essendon | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 21 Jun 24 | Carlton | 20 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 9 Jun 24 | Sydney Swans | 16 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 25 May 24 | GWS GIANTS | 15 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 May 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 May 24 | Port Adelaide | 11 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 May 24 | Melbourne | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 20 Apr 24 | Brisbane Lions | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jhye Clark (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jhye Clark is Under 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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