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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Shaun Mannagh is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +4.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:31PM UTC
AFL

Shaun Mannagh

Geelong Cats

+4.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -278 (1.36) · $100→$136
+4.9% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 30 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
78.5%
Implied Probability
73.5%
Model Edge
+4.9%
Predicted Value
1.1 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals78.5%73.5%1.27+4.9%

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AI Analysis

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Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Goals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it's crunch time and goals are at a premium, Shaun Mannagh is the man you want in your corner. The Geelong Cats sharpshooter has been on a tear lately, averaging a cool 1.4 goals per game in his last five away matches. Facing off against Collingwood, a team he's recently bagged 1.5 goals per game against, Mannagh's scoring prowess is set to shine at the MCG. His accuracy might hover at 40% on the road, but with the Cats looking to stamp their authority, he's primed to split the middle and snag at least one goal. With an impressive hit streak and an edge that screams opportunity, betting on Mannagh to go Over 0.5 goals is a wager that's as solid as his kicks through the big sticks.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
17.7avg disposals recent
Season best23
Disposals last 10avg 17.7 · hi 23 · lo 12
20141912171521212315

Shaun Mannagh has a disposals high of 23 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.4avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 1.4 · hi 3 · lo 0
0102222131

Shaun Mannagh has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 0.5 Over -278 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -303 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals Pending

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About This Player

Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Shaun Mannagh is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.9% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies on Thursday 30 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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