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AFL

Brad Close

Geelong Cats

Value call

Brad Close (Geelong Cats) has one live pick today: over 1.5 marks that pays $160 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
63 in 100
Predicted
2.8 marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 62.7% · before adjusting for past results 74.7% · the book's price implies 62.5% · gap +0.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Brad Close
over 1.5 marks
Marks Over 1.5 -167 (1.60) · $100→$160
Value call
HIGHWins about 63 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$16.00 Odds-167
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brad Close is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 63%, the price says 63%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:09PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 16°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks74.7%62.7%62.5%1.60+12.2%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Brad Close Over 1.5 Marks (-167)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Brad Close has a solid chance to grab over 1.5 marks in this game at the MCG. Geelong Cats have been getting inside 50 about 12.4 more times a game than Carlton lately, which should give Close plenty of opportunities to take marks. With Geelong scoring an average of 101.5 points in their last 12 games, they'll likely be looking for Close to help out. Carlton has been strong, winning 8 of their last 10 games, but they concede a decent amount of points too. Close's performance could be affected if Carlton focuses on shutting him down. Still, our numbers suggest he has a good chance to hit that mark, making this a fun pick to cheer for.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brad Close averaged 12.7 disposals, 1.0 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

12.7
Disposals
1.0
Goals
2.8
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Brad Close recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions19022
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide15020
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles11031
17 Aug 24St Kilda9031
10 Aug 24Fremantle9010
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows9012
27 Jul 24North Melbourne14154
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs11127
12 Jul 24Collingwood16161
6 Jul 24Hawthorn14422
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Marks 1.5 Over -167 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Brad Close (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brad Close is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.2% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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