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The latest Bet Better model pick for Brad Close is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 62%, edge +9.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 1:45PM UTC
AFL

Brad Close

Geelong Cats

+9.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -164 (1.61) · $100→$161
+9.4% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 26 Mar, 8:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 16°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
12.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.5% · the book's price implies 62.1% · gap +9.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.5%—62.1%1.40+9.4%

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AI Analysis

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Brad Close (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Brad Close to go over 9.5 disposals against the Adelaide Crows at GMHBA Stadium, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Close has been a consistent contributor in his last five home games, averaging a solid 12.8 disposals per match. His recent performances against the Crows have been even more impressive, with an average of 13 disposals. Additionally, his efficiency has been above average, hovering around 69.9%. With a knack for gaining meters and solid contested possession numbers, Close is poised to make an impact. Given his recent form and the historical matchup data, taking the Over on Close's disposals seems like a smart play for this upcoming clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brad Close averaged 12.7 disposals, 1.0 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

12.7
Disposals
1.0
Goals
2.8
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Brad Close recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions19022
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide15020
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles11031
17 Aug 24St Kilda9031
10 Aug 24Fremantle9010
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows9012
27 Jul 24North Melbourne14154
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs11127
12 Jul 24Collingwood16161
6 Jul 24Hawthorn14422
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Brad Close (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brad Close is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.4% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 26 March at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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