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The latest Bet Better model pick for Brad Close is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +9.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 12:12PM UTC
AFL

Brad Close

Geelong Cats

+9.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -164 (1.61)
+9.4% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 26 Mar, 8:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 16°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.5%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+9.4%
Predicted Value
12.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.5%—62.1%1.40+9.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Brad Close (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Brad Close to go over 9.5 disposals against the Adelaide Crows at GMHBA Stadium, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Close has been a consistent contributor in his last five home games, averaging a solid 12.8 disposals per match. His recent performances against the Crows have been even more impressive, with an average of 13 disposals. Additionally, his efficiency has been above average, hovering around 69.9%. With a knack for gaining meters and solid contested possession numbers, Close is poised to make an impact. Given his recent form and the historical matchup data, taking the Over on Close's disposals seems like a smart play for this upcoming clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
11.4avg disposals L5
Home12vs Essendon13.2Season best19
O 9.560%
O 10.540%
O 11.530%
O 12.530%
O 13.530%
O 14.520%
Game log vs line (O 11.5)avg 12.7 · hi 19 · lo 9
14161114999111519

Brad Close has gone over 11.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 11.4 disposals, best 19).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 0.5
0.6avg goals L5
Home1.2vs Essendon1.2Season best4
O 0.560%
O 1.530%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.7 · hi 4 · lo 0
4111000000

Brad Close has gone over 0.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.6 goals, best 4).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Brad Close (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brad Close is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.4% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 26 March at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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