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Adelaide Crows
VS
Geelong Cats

Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 24, 5:40AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Outdoor
Thu 26 Mar 2026, 8:30AM
5
Game Picks
18
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Geelong Cats -26.5 (Spread)
For Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats (AFL), model win probability 69.6%, fair odds 1.44, book price -110, model edge +17.2%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 26 Mar 2026, 8:30AM at GMHBA Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Geelong Cats
-26.5
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Geelong CatsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Geelong CatsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Cats

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Gryan Miers Geelong Cats Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tom Atkins Geelong Cats Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ben Keays Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jeremy Cameron Geelong Cats Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Riley Thilthorpe Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top betting picks for Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows. Includes analysis on key players like Tom Atkins. Discover AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows stats and odds.</p>

Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Tom Atkins for a minute. This gritty midfielder from the Geelong Cats has been quietly putting up solid numbers, especially on home turf. Over his last five home games, Atkins has been a ball magnet, averaging a respectable 19.4 disposals per match. Facing off against the Adelaide Crows, he's shown a knack for finding the footy, averaging 18.4 disposals against them. What sets Atkins apart is his versatility. He's not just a one-trick pony; he's equally adept at contested possessions, handballs, and intercepts, making him a key cog in Geelong's midfield machine. With a line set at 17.5 disposals, Atkins looks primed to surpass that mark given his recent form and matchup history. So, when you're eyeing the 'Player Disposals Over/Under' market, backing Atkins to hit over 17.5 disposals seems like a smart play for this showdown at GMHBA Stadium.

Tom Atkins (Geelong Cats) Over 16.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals, Tom Atkins is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between the Geelong Cats and the Adelaide Crows. Playing at the familiar confines of GMHBA Stadium, Atkins has been a midfield dynamo in recent home games, averaging a solid 19.4 disposals. His ability to find the footy in contested situations (11.6 avg) and maintain a high disposal efficiency (74.1%) make him a reliable ball magnet. Against the Adelaide Crows, he has historically averaged 16.7 disposals at home and 18.4 overall. With his recent form showing an average of 20.6 disposals overall, Atkins is primed to surpass the 16.5 disposal line. Backing Atkins to hit the over feels like a smart play given his consistent performance and ability to impact the game through his ball-winning prowess.

Shaun Mannagh (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Goals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Shaun Mannagh, the Geelong Cats' sharpshooter, is poised to light up GMHBA Stadium against the Adelaide Crows. Over his last five home games, Mannagh has been a goal-scoring machine, averaging a stellar 1.8 goals per game. His accuracy is on point, hitting the target 70% of the time, showcasing his precision in front of the big sticks. With an impressive average of 2.8 shots on goal per game at home and his recent form against the Crows, averaging 2 goals per game in their last five encounters, Mannagh is a consistent threat in the forward line. His current hot streak, hitting the mark in the last four games overall, solidifies his status as a reliable goal-kicker. Backing Mannagh to snag over 0.5 goals is not just a bet; it's a calculated move based on his recent performance and historical dominance against Adelaide.

Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the upcoming Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows clash, Darcy Fogarty is the man to watch. Fogarty has been on fire in his last five away games, averaging 1.6 goals per game, showcasing his lethal accuracy with a 50% goal accuracy rate. With an average of 3.2 shots at goal and 6 score involvements in his recent away performances, Fogarty has been a constant threat in the forward line. Facing the Geelong Cats, Fogarty has historically performed well, averaging 1.3 goals in his last five matchups against them. With a solid hit streak of 5 in away games and 3 overall, Fogarty is in prime form to make an impact on the scoreboard. All signs point to Fogarty continuing his goal-scoring prowess, making the Over 0.5 goals player prop bet a compelling choice for this showdown at GMHBA Stadium.

Jake Soligo (Adelaide Crows) Over 17.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Jake Soligo to hit Over 17.5 disposals in the upcoming clash against the Geelong Cats, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Soligo has been a consistent ball-winner, averaging 17.4 disposals in his last five away games and maintaining a solid disposal efficiency of 69.7%. Facing the Cats, he's been even more prolific, averaging 17.3 disposals in their recent encounters. Soligo's ability to find the footy, coupled with his knack for gaining meters and making an impact with kicks and handballs, sets him up well to surpass the 17.5 mark once again. With a model prediction of 20.6 disposals and a 4.1% edge, Soligo looks primed to be a key contributor in the midfield battle.

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows : Over 165.5 Total Points (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When Geelong Cats clash with the Adelaide Crows at GMHBA Stadium, expect a high-scoring showdown. Geelong, averaging 101.2 points in their last five home games, faces Adelaide, who's been netting 103 points on the road. With Geelong boasting an average of 57.8 inside 50s at home and Adelaide tallying 53 on their away games, the stage is set for a goal fest. Both teams have been efficient in converting opportunities, with Geelong hitting an average of 15 goals per game at home and Adelaide notching 15.4 on their travels. Considering Geelong's recent overall average of 93.2 points and Adelaide's 80.6, the Over 165.5 total points line seems primed for a thrilling shootout. Expect these offensive powerhouses to light up the scoreboard and surpass the set mark.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
26 Mar 26 Total Points Over 165.5 ✗ MISS
26 Mar 26 Spread Geelong Cats -26.5 ✗ MISS
26 Mar 26 Spread Geelong Cats -23.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 26 March 2026 at GMHBA Stadium. The model has generated 5 game picks and 18 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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