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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Martin is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +10.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 3:41PM UTC
AFL

Jack Martin

Geelong Cats

+10.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -278 (1.36)
+10.8% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 30 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
84.4%
Implied Probability
73.5%
Model Edge
+10.8%
Predicted Value
1.3 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals84.4%73.5%1.19+10.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Jack Martin (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Goals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fanatics, let's talk about Jack Martin from the Geelong Cats. This dynamic forward has been a scoring machine lately, averaging a solid 1.2 goals over his last five away games. Facing Collingwood at the MCG, Martin's track record against them is even more impressive, bagging an average of 2 goals in their recent encounters. What makes Martin a prime pick for hitting over 0.5 goals this time? Well, his sharp goal accuracy of 38.3% on the road, coupled with an average of 2.2 shots at goal per game, indicates he's consistently getting in dangerous positions to snag a goal. With his knack for being involved in scoring plays (2.8 score involvements per game), Martin is poised to split the middle at least once, making the Over 0.5 goals bet on him a smart play with a high probability of success.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 9.5
7.6avg disposals L5
Home11.8vs Essendon10.7Season best15
O 9.550%
O 10.540%
O 11.520%
O 12.520%
O 13.520%
O 14.520%
Game log vs line (O 9.5)avg 10.5 · hi 15 · lo 1
12151514712106131

Jack Martin has gone over 9.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 7.6 disposals, best 15).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 1.5
1.2avg goals L5
Home1.4vs Essendon0.7Season best3
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1.5 · hi 3 · lo 0
3112122120

Jack Martin has gone over 1.5 goals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.2 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 0.5 Over -278 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -500 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals Pending

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About This Player

Jack Martin (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Martin is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.8% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies on Thursday 30 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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