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The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Dangerfield is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:36PM UTC
AFL

Patrick Dangerfield

Geelong Cats

+3.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+3.0% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
88.4%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+3.0%
Predicted Value
17.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.4%85.5%1.13+3.0%

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AI Analysis

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Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Over 11.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to picking a player prop bet, Patrick Dangerfield stands out like a shining star on a clear night. The man's been on fire lately, bagging an average of 18.2 disposals per game over his last five away matches. And let's not forget his recent history against Melbourne; he's been shredding defenses, averaging a whopping 30 disposals when facing off against them. With his current form and a stellar hit streak of five successful games on the road, Dangerfield is primed to split the middle with ease and surpass that 11.5 disposal line. So, if you're looking for a safe bet with a high probability of hitting, putting your money on Dangerfield to go over 11.5 disposals is as close to a sure thing as you'll get in footy betting.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19.9avg disposals recent
Season best26
Disposals last 10avg 19.9 · hi 25 · lo 12
14221712212020252424

Patrick Dangerfield has a disposals high of 26 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.6avg goals recent
Season best1
Goals last 10avg 0.6 · hi 1 · lo 0
0011011101

Patrick Dangerfield has a goals high of 1 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 12.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 13.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Dangerfield is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons on Friday 24 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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