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AFL

Patrick Dangerfield

Geelong Cats

Value call

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) has one live pick today: over 0.5 goals that pays $141 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
62 in 100
Predicted
1.3 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 61.9% · before adjusting for past results 73.9% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap -9.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Patrick Dangerfield
over 0.5 goals
Goals Over 0.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
Value call
HIGHWins about 62 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.10 Odds-244
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Dangerfield is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 62%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 13, 1:03AM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.9%61.9%70.9%1.61+3.0%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Patrick Dangerfield Over 0.5 Goals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

At the MCG, Geelong Cats take on the Carlton Blues, and it looks promising for Patrick Dangerfield to score at least one goal. Carlton has been really strong lately, winning eight of their last ten games. They also win the contested ball by a good margin, which helps them keep control of the game. Geelong, on the other hand, has been scoring well, averaging over 100 points in their last matches. The risk here is that Geelong's contested ball numbers are pretty even, meaning it could be tougher for them to break through. However, Dangerfield is a key player who knows how to find the goal, and with how the game is shaping up, he has a good shot to score.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)
Overall Hit Rate (20 picks) 55.0% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Season averages (2024)

Patrick Dangerfield averaged 20.1 disposals, 0.5 goals and 3.4 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

20.1
Disposals
0.5
Goals
3.4
Marks
3.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Patrick Dangerfield recorded 24 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions24124
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide24040
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles25192
17 Aug 24St Kilda20143
10 Aug 24Fremantle20133
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows21026
27 Jul 24North Melbourne12112
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs17126
12 Jul 24Collingwood22032
6 Jul 24Hawthorn14013
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 12.5 Over -200 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 11.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 55.0% on tracked Patrick Dangerfield picks. The latest model pick for Patrick Dangerfield is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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