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The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Dangerfield is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 72%, edge +1.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 4:19AM UTC
AFL

Patrick Dangerfield

Geelong Cats

+1.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
+1.9% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
1.3 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.9% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap +1.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.9%—71.9%1.35+1.9%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Patrick Dangerfield Over 0.5 Goals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Patrick Dangerfield is a key player for Geelong, and he's been in great form lately. With Carlton conceding an average of 78.8 points per match over their last 12 games, it seems likely Dangerfield will find the scoreboard. Carlton has won 8 of their last 10 games, but they still give up a good number of points, which helps our bet. While the teams are competitive, Dangerfield's ability to break through a strong defence makes this a solid pick. The risk here is that both teams have been closely matched in some areas, but with the way Dangerfield plays, he should be able to score at least one goal in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Patrick Dangerfield averaged 20.1 disposals, 0.5 goals and 3.4 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

20.1
Disposals
0.5
Goals
3.4
Marks
3.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Goals Scored

Patrick Dangerfield has cleared 0.5 goals scored in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o0.570%
o1.530%
o2.520%
o3.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Patrick Dangerfield is averaging 12.6 disposals per game over his last 5 and 16.8 in home games.

12.6
Disp · Overall
16.8
Disp · Home
1.2
Goals · Overall
2.2
Goals · Home

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Patrick Dangerfield recorded 24 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions24124
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide24040
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles25192
17 Aug 24St Kilda20143
10 Aug 24Fremantle20133
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows21026
27 Jul 24North Melbourne12112
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs17126
12 Jul 24Collingwood22032
6 Jul 24Hawthorn14013
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 9.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 10.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 11.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Dangerfield is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.9% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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