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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Patrick Dangerfield is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 83%, for a model edge of +0.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
AFL

Patrick Dangerfield

Geelong Cats

+0.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -500 (1.20)
+0.7% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
84.0%
Implied Probability
83.3%
Model Edge
+0.7%
Predicted Value
17.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals84.0%83.3%1.19+0.7%

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AI Analysis

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Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Over 12.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to a player like Patrick Dangerfield, it's not just about the numbers; it's about the impact he has on the game. In his last five home games, Dangerfield has been a force to be reckoned with, averaging 16 disposals with a whopping 318.4 meters gained per game. Facing off against St Kilda, a team he's historically performed well against, averaging 25 disposals in their last five encounters, the stage is set for Dangerfield to shine. With his recent form showing a solid hit rate and his ability to impact both the contested and uncontested possessions, taking the Over 12.5 disposals for Dangerfield in this matchup at GMHBA Stadium is not just a bet on numbers; it's a bet on a player who thrives in key moments and delivers when it matters most.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19.9avg disposals recent
Season best26
Disposals last 10avg 19.9 · hi 25 · lo 12
14221712212020252424

Patrick Dangerfield has a disposals high of 26 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.6avg goals recent
Season best1
Goals last 10avg 0.6 · hi 1 · lo 0
0011011101

Patrick Dangerfield has a goals high of 1 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals 12.5 Over -500 ✗ MISS
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals 13.5 Over -333 ✗ MISS
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals 14.5 Over -233 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals Pending

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About This Player

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Patrick Dangerfield is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.7% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 16 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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