Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Bowes is Under 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 54%, edge +18.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 9:46PM UTC
AFL
Jack Bowes
Geelong Cats
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Under 15.5
-116 (1.86) · $100→$186
+18.2% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks
@
Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 19 Sep, 9:40AM
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
72 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 72.0% · the book's price implies 53.8% · gap +18.2%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 72.0% | — | 53.8% | 1.39 | +18.2% |
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Jack Bowes (Geelong Cats) Under 15.5 Disposals (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jack Bowes has been averaging 17.2 disposals in his last five home games but faces a tougher opponent in Hawthorn, against whom he averages 16.5 disposals. His recent form shows an average of 15.4 disposals overall, just under the line of 15.5. With a model prediction of 12.6 disposals and a standard deviation of 5, there's a strong statistical edge of 18.2% indicating a higher likelihood of Bowes falling below the line. Considering his recent hit rates and the opponent's strength, betting on Bowes to have under 15.5 disposals in this AFL matchup at the MCG seems like a favorable choice.
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Season averages (2024)
Jack Bowes averaged 18.4 disposals, 0.5 goals and 3.1 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Jack Bowes recorded 13 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 21 Sep 24 | Brisbane Lions | 13 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 Sep 24 | Port Adelaide | 18 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| 24 Aug 24 | West Coast Eagles | 24 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 17 Aug 24 | St Kilda | 31 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Fremantle | 12 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Adelaide Crows | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Jul 24 | North Melbourne | 20 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 20 Jul 24 | Western Bulldogs | 18 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 Jul 24 | Collingwood | 24 | 1 | 9 | 2 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 24 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jack Bowes (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Bowes is Under 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.2% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats on Friday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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