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The latest Bet Better model pick for Connor Macdonald is Under 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +15.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 7:07PM UTC
AFL

Connor Macdonald

Hawthorn

+15.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -125 (1.80) · $100→$180
+15.4% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks
University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
71.0%
Implied Probability
55.6%
Model Edge
+15.4%
Predicted Value
19.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.0%55.6%1.41+15.4%

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AI Analysis

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Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) Under 22.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the stats, Connor Macdonald has been a solid contributor for the Hawthorn Hawks, but the numbers suggest he might fall short of the 22.5 disposal line against the North Melbourne Kangaroos. In his last five home games, Macdonald has averaged 20 disposals, slightly below the line. Furthermore, his average of 16.8 disposals against North Melbourne in their previous encounters hints at a potential matchup challenge. With recent averages of 7.6 contested possessions and 12.2 kicks per home game, Macdonald may face difficulty in reaching the expected disposal count. The data indicates a trend that aligns with taking the Under on Macdonald's disposals for this upcoming game at University of Tasmania Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19.3avg disposals recent
Season best28
Disposals last 10avg 19.3 · hi 28 · lo 10
20161428142524192310

Connor Macdonald has a disposals high of 28 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.3avg goals recent
Season best4
Goals last 10avg 1.3 · hi 4 · lo 0
0142100320

Connor Macdonald has a goals high of 4 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 22.5 Under -125 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Connor Macdonald is Under 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.4% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 1 August at University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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