Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Connor Macdonald is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +9.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL
Connor Macdonald
Hawthorn
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-182 (1.55)
+9.9% Edge
Port Adelaide Power
@
Hawthorn Hawks
UTAS Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Sat 19 Jul, 3:20AM
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Implied Probability
64.5%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 74.5% | — | 64.5% | 1.34 | +9.9% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 2/3 |
| Last 5 games | 4/5 |
| Last 10 games | 7/10 |
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Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-182)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Connor Macdonald is a strong bet to score anytime based on his recent performance. With an average of 1.8 goals in his last five home games and a high goal accuracy of 45.3%, Macdonald consistently gets involved in the scoring plays with an average of 7.8 score involvements. His ability to take shots at goal (3.4 average) and find the big sticks makes him a reliable goal-scoring threat. Facing Port Adelaide, against whom he averages 0.5 goals in his last five matchups, Macdonald is poised to capitalize on his scoring opportunities. The model's prediction of 1 goal with a 9.9% edge further supports the likelihood of Macdonald snagging a goal in this game.
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Betting angles
Markets & formGoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 0.5
1avg goals L5
Away0.8vs Richmond0.2Season best4
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 1.3 · hi 4 · lo 0
Connor Macdonald has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 4).
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Connor Macdonald is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.9% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 July at UTAS Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.