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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Connor Macdonald is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 71%, the price says 69%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 1:34AM UTC
AFL

Connor Macdonald

Hawthorn

Value call

Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 15.5 that pays $144 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
21.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 71.0% · before adjusting for past results 88.1% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap +1.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.1%71.0%69.4%1.41+18.6%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Connor Macdonald Over 15.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Connor Macdonald to have over 15.5 disposals are looking pretty good, especially since our numbers see him as a strong favorite here. The Brisbane Lions have been on fire lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games and averaging nearly 50 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. This shows they are playing at a high level, and Macdonald should have plenty of chances to rack up disposals. However, the Hawthorn Hawks can be tough opponents, so there is a risk that they might disrupt Macdonald's game. Still, with how well the Lions have been playing, it feels like he has a solid shot to hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Season averages (2024)

Connor Macdonald averaged 17.4 disposals, 1.1 goals and 5.3 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

17.4
Disposals
1.1
Goals
5.3
Marks
2.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Connor Macdonald recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide10031
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs23273
24 Aug 24North Melbourne19347
18 Aug 24Richmond24093
11 Aug 24Carlton250126
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS14160
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows28244
20 Jul 24Collingwood14415
13 Jul 24Fremantle16142
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats20084
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 15.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 2.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 12.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Connor Macdonald (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Connor Macdonald is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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